Maryland Terrapins at Marquette Golden Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 2:00 PM ETFiserv Forum · at Marquette

#50MDMaryland89▲ winner

Final

#42MARQMarquette82final

Closing lineMARQ -8.5✓ MD covered by 15.5

Closing total146.5Over by 24.5

Season records: Maryland and Marquette
MD	This season	MARQ
2-1	Record	3-1
0-3	ATS	2-2
2-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MD 72–78 MARQ · ✗ MARQ (70%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MD	42	47	89
MARQ	42	40	82

1st half: MD 42, MARQ 42 (tied). The model had MARQ by 3.4 and a total of 70.0 (actual 84).

Team stats

MD		MARQ
29-55 53%	Field goals	28-76 37%
8-22 36%	3-pointers	11-40 28%
23-27 85%	Free throws	15-22 68%
35 4 off	Rebounds	44 20 off
16	Assists	16
6	Steals	7
3	Blocks	1
13	Turnovers	11
19	Fouls	21
38	Points in paint	34
12	Fast-break points	22

Players

MD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Elijah Saunders F	38	8	11	0	3-10	1-4
David Coit G	37	19	3	5	6-13	4-7
Darius Adams G	34	16	7	3	5-10	0-4
Andre Mills G	22	11	4	4	3-9	0-3
Pharrel Payne F	17	13	1	2	6-6	0-0
Bench
Isaiah Watts G	29	18	2	2	5-6	3-4
Collin Metcalf C	12	4	2	0	1-1	0-0
Aleks Alston F	8	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Guillermo Del Pino G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jaziah Harper, Nick Blake, Lukas Sotell, Myles Rice, George Turkson Jr., Rakease Passmore, Solomon Washington

MARQ	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zaide Lowery G	34	14	8	4	6-19	2-9
Ben Gold F	33	18	8	1	6-15	4-10
Chase Ross G	33	31	3	4	10-19	4-11
Nigel James Jr. G	23	8	1	4	4-9	0-2
Caedin Hamilton F	15	4	5	0	0-0	0-0
Bench
Royce Parham F	25	3	7	1	1-8	0-3
Adrien Stevens G	19	3	4	2	1-5	1-5
Damarius Owens SF	10	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Joshua Clark F	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Tre Norman G	4	1	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Michael Phillips II, Casey O'Malley, Sheek Pearson, Braeden Brenn, Ian Miletic, Jonah Lucas, Sean Jones

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MARQ -8.5	MARQ -5.9	MD +2.6	W MD covered
Total	146.5	149.4	Over 2.9	W Over
Projected score	—	MD 71.8 · MARQ 77.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MARQ -3.4	PK
1H total	70.0	84
1H projected score	MD 33.3 · MARQ 36.7	MD 42 · MARQ 42

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MD LLL	0-3	0%	—	—
MARQ WLLW	2-2	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: MD away, as underdog; MARQ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MD OUO	2-1	67%	2-1
MARQ UOOU	2-2	50%	3-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MDlast 3	2-1 67%	0-3 0%	2-1 67%
MARQlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

MD 0–1 MARQMARQ leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · MD 0-1 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 15, 2024-25	MARQ 78 @ MD 74	MD -2.5	MARQ W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Maryland

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −10.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCOPP	W 83-61	-28.5	L −6.5	139.5	O 144
Nov 7	vsGTWN	L 60-70	-4.5	L −14.5	144.5	U 130
Nov 11	vsALCN	W 84-64	-29.5	L −9.5	146.5	O 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

−6.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

−9.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −10.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COPP

W 83-61

+4.5

GTWN

L 60-70

−14.5

ALCN

W 84-64

+1.5

over 2under 1avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marquette

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsUALB	W 80-53	-24.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 133
Nov 5	vsSOU	W 100-82	-24.5	L −6.5	155.5	O 182
Nov 9	vsIU	L 77-100	+3.5	L −19.5	156.5	O 177
Nov 12	vsLR	W 89-49	-21.5	W +18.5	155.5	U 138

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

+2.5

SOU

W 100-82

−6.5

L 77-100

−19.5

W 89-49

+18.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UALB

W 80-53

−16.5

SOU

W 100-82

+26.5

L 77-100

+20.5

W 89-49

−17.5

over 2under 2avg +3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Maryland @ Marquette

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Maryland

Marquette

Maryland

Marquette