North Carolina A&T Aggies at Charlotte 49ers: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Dec 2, 7:00 PM ETHalton Arena · at Charlotte

#275NCATNC A&T57final

Final

#141CLTCharlotte74▲ winner

Closing lineCLT -7.5✓ CLT covered by 9.5

Closing total144.5Under by 13.5

Season records: NC A&T and Charlotte
NCAT	This season	CLT
2-2	Record	2-5
3-1	ATS	3-4
2-2	O/U	3-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NCAT 69–78 CLT · ✓ CLT (79%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NCAT	22	35	57
CLT	44	30	74

1st half: NCAT 22, CLT 44 (CLT by 22). The model had CLT by 5.4 and a total of 68.8 (actual 66).

Team stats

NCAT		CLT
17-47 36%	Field goals	26-50 52%
4-18 22%	3-pointers	9-22 41%
19-29 66%	Free throws	13-19 68%
25 7 off	Rebounds	31 8 off
6	Assists	15
7	Steals	7
1	Blocks	3
13	Turnovers	13
16	Fouls	25
20	Points in paint	32
13	Fast-break points	14

Players

NCAT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bryson Ogletree G	30	4	0	1	1-3	0-2
Trent Middleton Jr. G	30	14	2	0	5-7	2-3
Dwayne Pierce G	29	8	2	3	3-9	1-4
Lewis Walker F	29	14	2	1	4-11	1-5
Amadou Doumbia F	22	4	5	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Zamoku Weluche-Ume F	28	8	6	1	2-6	0-1
KJ Debrick F	14	2	4	0	1-5	0-2
Brooklyn Vick G	9	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Mujahiid Burton G	5	2	0	0	0-1	0-1
Will Felton C	4	1	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Lo Walker, Efstratios Kalliontzis, Chanler Montgomery, Uchenna Kellman-Nicholes, Yancarlos Cueto, Jalal McKie

CLT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Raúl Villar G	28	5	3	3	1-3	1-3
Arden Conyers F	24	13	3	0	4-9	3-6
Spencer Elliott F	24	10	4	3	4-8	1-3
Anton Bonke C	20	9	4	2	4-6	1-2
Ben Bradford G	5	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Bench
Dezayne Mingo G	28	9	6	4	4-6	1-3
Kuluel Mading C	19	14	2	0	5-7	0-1
Major Freeman G	19	3	1	1	1-5	1-3
Kylan Blackmon G	16	7	3	0	2-3	1-1
Ethan Butler F	12	2	1	1	0-1	0-0
Nick Richart F	4	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Andrew Bailey F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Damoni Harrison, Frank Oguche, David Gomez, Jarne Elouna Eyenga

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CLT -7.5	CLT -9.2	CLT +1.7	W CLT covered
Total	144.5	147.0	Over 2.5	L Under
Projected score	—	NCAT 68.9 · CLT 78.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CLT -5.4	CLT -22.0
1H total	68.8	66
1H projected score	NCAT 31.7 · CLT 37.1	NCAT 22 · CLT 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCAT WWWL	3-1	75%	2-1	1-1
CLT LWLLW	3-4	43%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: NCAT away, as underdog; CLT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCAT OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2
CLT UOUOU	3-4	43%	2-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCATlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	2-2 50%
CLTlast 7	2-5 29%	3-4 43%	3-4 43%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC A&T

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@SC	L 72-91	+22.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 10	vsSCST	W 85-62	-2.5	W +20.5	159.5	U 147
Nov 18	@MORG	W 79-73	-2.5	W +3.5	161.5	U 152
Nov 28	@DAV	L 74-90	+13.5	L −2.5	145.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 72-91

+3.5

SCST

W 85-62

+20.5

MORG

W 79-73

+3.5

DAV

L 74-90

−2.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 72-91

+19.5

SCST

W 85-62

−12.5

MORG

W 79-73

−9.5

DAV

L 74-90

+18.5

over 2under 2avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Charlotte

7 games played

Straight up

2-5

29% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg +0.4 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-4

43% overs · avg −1.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-529%

W W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

W L L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-443%

O U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsINST	W 92-76	-4.5	W +11.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 7	vsTNTC	W 70-65	-12.5	L −7.5	146.5	U 135
Nov 11	vsDAV	L 55-62	-1.5	L −8.5	143.5	U 117
Nov 16	@VT	L 76-84	+18.5	W +10.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	@APP	L 63-65	+1.5	L −0.5	132.5	U 128
Nov 27	vsILST	L 69-79	+5.5	L −4.5	139.5	O 148
Nov 28	vsRICH	L 66-71	+6.5	W +1.5	141.5	U 137

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

INST

W 92-76

+11.5

TNTC

W 70-65

−7.5

DAV

L 55-62

−8.5

L 76-84

+10.5

APP

L 63-65

−0.5

ILST

L 69-79

−4.5

RICH

L 66-71

+1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg +0.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

INST

W 92-76

+15.5

TNTC

W 70-65

−11.5

DAV

L 55-62

−26.5

L 76-84

+14.5

APP

L 63-65

−4.5

ILST

L 69-79

+8.5

RICH

L 66-71

−4.5

over 3under 4avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

NC A&T @ Charlotte

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

NC A&T

Charlotte

NC A&T

Charlotte