Bryce Jordan Center · at Penn State
Closing line
PSU -11.5✓ NAVY covered by 2.5
PSU -11.5✓ NAVY covered by 2.5Closing total155.5Under by 4.5
 NAVY | This season | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | ATS | 1-1 |
| 1-1 | O/U | 0-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: NAVY 68–82 PSU · ✓ PSU (90%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAVY | 32 | 39 | 71 |
| PSU | 38 | 42 | 80 |
1st half: NAVY 32, PSU 38 (PSU by 6). The model had PSU by 8.6 and a total of 70.0 (actual 70).
Team stats
| NAVY | PSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-54 48% | Field goals | 30-61 49% |
| 6-17 35% | 3-pointers | 6-19 32% |
| 13-14 93% | Free throws | 14-18 78% |
| 29 7 off | Rebounds | 30 11 off |
| 17 | Assists | 12 |
| 9 | Steals | 14 |
| 1 | Blocks | 1 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 17 | Fouls | 13 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 44 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 20 |
Players
| NAVY | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donovan Draper F | 40 | 22 | 12 | 4 | 8-12 | 0-3 |
| Austin Benigni G | 40 | 12 | 0 | 8 | 4-12 | 1-2 |
| Jinwoo Kim G | 37 | 25 | 0 | 1 | 8-16 | 5-10 |
| Aidan Kehoe C | 34 | 4 | 10 | 0 | 2-6 | 0-0 |
| Mike Woods F | 20 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| David Burnett G | 10 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Cam Cole G | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Jordan Pennick G | 6 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Nyles Howard G | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: C.J. Kearns, Matt Gaffney, Colin Pollock, Steven McLeod, Jerry Ashley Jr., Jordan McConnell, Luke Morgan, Owen Gray, Cooper Jackson, Tobi Raji, Davyn de Jongh, Julien King and 4 more
| PSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Melih Tunca G | 32 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 4-10 | 1-3 |
| Kayden Mingo G | 29 | 16 | 7 | 4 | 7-12 | 0-3 |
| Josh Reed F | 28 | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5-11 | 0-1 |
| Eli Rice G | 15 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Sasa Ciani F | 11 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Freddie Dilione V G | 27 | 19 | 3 | 2 | 6-12 | 1-5 |
| Ivan Juric F | 22 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Dominick Stewart G | 20 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Tibor Mirtic F | 13 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-0 |
| Mason Blackwood F | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Reggie Grodin, Chris Lotito, Justin Houser
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketPSU -11.5
ModelPSU -14.4
Model edgePSU +2.9
L NAVY covered
Total
Market155.5
Model149.4
Model edgeUnder 6.1
W Under
Projected score
NAVY 67.5 · PSU 81.9
NAVY 71 · PSU 80
Win probability
PSU 90%
1st half
Spread
PSU -8.6
PSU -6.0
Total
70.0
70 points
Projected score
NAVY 30.7 · PSU 39.3
NAVY 32 · PSU 38
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenPSU -12.5
1 → NAVY
ClosePSU -11.5
1 pt toward NAVY
Total
Open154.5
▲ 1
Close155.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
NAVY +600 · PSU -1000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened PSU -12.5 · closed PSU -11.5 · moved 1 toward NAVYmodel PSU -14.5
model PSU -14.5
Opened 154.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 1 upmodel 149.5
model 149.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NAVYlast 2 | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% |
| PSUlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% | 0-2 0% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Navy
2 games played
Straight up
1-1
50% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg +3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
PRES
PRESW 76-55
+17.5
7
vs
YALE
YALEL 68-97
−23.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@PRES
PRESW 76-55
−10.5
7
vsYALE
YALEL 68-97
+17.5
over 1under 1avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Penn State
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg +9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-2
0% overs · avg −10.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
FAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@
NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
+25.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsFAIR
FAIRW 76-68
−7.5
8
@NHVN
NHVNW 87-43
−13.5
over 0under 2avg −10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Navy
1-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Patriot League
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Yale68–97
- W@ Presbyterian76–55
4 days since their last game.
Penn State
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big Ten Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ New Haven87–43
- Wvs Fairfield76–68
3 days since their last game.