St. John's Red Storm vs Baylor Bears: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 4:30 PM ETMichelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site

#9SJUSt John's AP #1496▲ winner

Final

#29BAYBaylor81final

Closing lineSJU -5.5✓ SJU covered by 9.5

Closing total159.5Over by 17.5

Season records: St John's and Baylor
SJU	This season	BAY
3-2	Record	4-0
4-1	ATS	2-2
3-2	O/U	3-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SJU 88–78 BAY · ✓ SJU (81%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SJU	43	53	96
BAY	34	47	81

1st half: SJU 43, BAY 34 (SJU by 9). The model had SJU by 6.3 and a total of 77.4 (actual 77).

Team stats

SJU		BAY
35-61 57%	Field goals	29-78 37%
11-22 50%	3-pointers	8-25 32%
15-22 68%	Free throws	15-17 88%
34 9 off	Rebounds	48 26 off
19	Assists	10
4	Steals	2
5	Blocks	1
10	Turnovers	11
21	Fouls	19
46	Points in paint	36
24	Fast-break points	11

Players

SJU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Oziyah Sellers G	36	22	2	0	6-11	5-7
Bryce Hopkins F	26	26	5	5	9-12	3-3
Zuby Ejiofor F	26	9	6	4	4-7	0-0
Dylan Darling G	18	2	3	0	1-2	0-1
Joson Sanon G	18	2	5	0	1-6	0-2
Bench
Dillon Mitchell F	25	18	6	6	8-10	0-1
Ian Jackson G	21	14	3	1	5-7	3-4
Sadiku Ibine Ayo F	13	0	0	1	0-2	0-1
Ruben Prey F	13	3	2	2	1-1	0-0
Lefteris Liotopoulos G	4	0	1	0	0-3	0-3

Did not play: Kelvin Odih, Handje Tamba, Casper Pohto, Fotis Konstantinidis, Imran Suljanovic

BAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cameron Carr G	36	27	3	0	8-15	5-8
Tounde Yessoufou G	32	15	9	1	5-17	3-9
Michael Rataj G	30	12	12	4	5-14	0-1
Obi Agbim G	29	4	2	3	2-8	0-4
Dan Skillings Jr. G	24	4	5	1	2-8	0-2
Bench
Caden Powell C	26	5	10	0	2-5	0-0
Isaac Williams IV G	23	14	2	1	5-11	0-1

Did not play: Will Kuykendall, Juslin Bodo Bodo, Andre Iguodala II, James Goodis, JJ White, Drew Perry, Mayo Soyoye, Maikcol Perez

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SJU -5.5	SJU -10.1	SJU +4.6	W SJU covered
Total	159.5	165.2	Over 5.7	W Over
Projected score	—	SJU 87.7 · BAY 77.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SJU -6.3	SJU -9.0
1H total	77.4	77
1H projected score	SJU 41.8 · BAY 35.6	SJU 43 · BAY 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SJU WLWWW	4-1	80%	1-0	3-1
BAY LWLW	2-2	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: SJU neutral site, as favorite; BAY neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SJU OOUUO	3-2	60%	3-2
BAY OUOO	3-1	75%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SJUlast 5	3-2 60%	4-1 80%	3-2 60%
BAYlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

SJU 0–1 BAYBAY leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · SJU 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 21, 2024-25	BAY 99 vs SJU 98	SJU +2.5	SJU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St John's

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +3.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-180%

W L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsQUIN	W 108-74	-26.5	W +7.5	156.5	O 182
Nov 8	vsALA	L 96-103	-4.5	L −11.5	172.5	O 199
Nov 15	vsW&M	W 93-60	-28.5	W +4.5	179.5	U 153
Nov 20	vsBUCK	W 97-49	-28.5	W +19.5	158.5	U 146
Nov 24	vsISU	L 82-83	+2.5	W +1.5	158.5	O 165

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUIN

W 108-74

+7.5

ALA

L 96-103

−11.5

W&M

W 93-60

+4.5

BUCK

W 97-49

+19.5

ISU

L 82-83

+1.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUIN

W 108-74

+25.5

ALA

L 96-103

+26.5

W&M

W 93-60

−26.5

BUCK

W 97-49

−12.5

ISU

L 82-83

+6.5

over 3under 2avg +3.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Baylor

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-175%

O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsRGV	W 96-81	-24.5	L −9.5	154.5	O 177
Nov 9	vsWASH	W 78-69	-6.5	W +2.5	156.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsTAR	W 94-81	-23.5	L −10.5	149.5	O 175
Nov 24	vsCREI	W 81-74	-3.5	W +3.5	154.5	O 155

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

−9.5

WASH

W 78-69

+2.5

TAR

W 94-81

−10.5

CREI

W 81-74

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RGV

W 96-81

+22.5

WASH

W 78-69

−9.5

TAR

W 94-81

+25.5

CREI

W 81-74

+0.5

over 3under 1avg +9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St John's vs Baylor

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

St John's

Baylor

St John's

Baylor