Maples Pavilion · at Stanford
Closing line
STAN -20.5✓ STAN covered by 6.5
STAN -20.5✓ STAN covered by 6.5Closing total139.5Over by 19.5
 UL | This season | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-0 |
| 2-2 | ATS | 1-2 |
| 1-3 | O/U | 2-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UL 62–81 STAN · ✓ STAN (95%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UL | 25 | 41 | 66 |
| STAN | 40 | 53 | 93 |
1st half: UL 25, STAN 40 (STAN by 15). The model had STAN by 10.9 and a total of 66.8 (actual 65).
Team stats
| UL | STAN | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-55 49% | Field goals | 27-56 48% |
| 2-9 22% | 3-pointers | 11-31 35% |
| 10-17 59% | Free throws | 28-35 80% |
| 27 6 off | Rebounds | 38 11 off |
| 4 | Assists | 14 |
| 3 | Steals | 4 |
| 0 | Blocks | 2 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 10 |
| 29 | Fouls | 16 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 7 | Fast-break points | 8 |
Players
| UL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dorian Finister G | 31 | 12 | 6 | 0 | 4-9 | 0-1 |
| Joshua Lewis F | 30 | 16 | 5 | 0 | 8-14 | 0-1 |
| Dariyus Woodson F | 28 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 3-6 | 1-3 |
| De'vion Lavergne G | 16 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-1 |
| Jeremiah Evans F | 11 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jaxon Olvera G | 27 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 5-11 | 1-2 |
| Mike Collins G | 17 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Milan Mejia G | 14 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kyran Ratliff F | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Todd Jones Jr. F | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Michael Mouton G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Logan Myers, Rahman Olajuwon, Sean Elkinton, Christian Landry, Zeke Cook, Karris Bilal, Jamyron Keller
| STAN | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ebuka Okorie G | 34 | 26 | 2 | 5 | 6-10 | 3-5 |
| Chisom Okpara F | 26 | 22 | 5 | 1 | 7-10 | 1-3 |
| Aidan Cammann F | 25 | 7 | 5 | 3 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Benny Gealer G | 18 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| AJ Rohosy F | 9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jeremy Dent-Smith G | 25 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 1-7 | 0-5 |
| Cameron Grant G | 20 | 15 | 3 | 0 | 5-11 | 5-11 |
| Ryan Agarwal G | 15 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Evan Stinson F | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Oskar Giltay C | 9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Kristers Skrinda F | 6 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jaylen Thompson F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ethan Kitch G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Myles Jones, Donavin Young, Anthony Batson Jr., Tallis Toure
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSTAN -20.5
ModelSTAN -18.3
Model edgeUL +2.2
L STAN covered
Total
Market139.5
Model142.7
Model edgeOver 3.2
W Over
Projected score
UL 62.2 · STAN 80.5
UL 66 · STAN 93
Win probability
STAN 95%
1st half
Spread
STAN -10.9
STAN -15.0
Total
66.8
65 points
Projected score
UL 28 · STAN 38.9
UL 25 · STAN 40
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSTAN -18.5
2 → STAN
CloseSTAN -20.5
2 pts toward STAN
Total
Open135.5
▲ 4
Close139.5
Up 4 since the open
Moneyline
UL +2000 · STAN -7500
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened STAN -18.5 · closed STAN -20.5 · moved 2 toward STANmodel STAN -18.5
model STAN -18.5
Opened 135.5 · closed 139.5 · moved 4 upmodel 142.5
model 142.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| ULlast 4 | 1-3 25% | 2-2 50% | 1-3 25% |
| STANlast 3 | 3-0 100% | 1-2 33% | 2-1 67% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Louisiana
4 games played
Straight up
1-3
25% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg −3.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
BALL
BALLL 64-75
−6.5
7
vs
SELA
SELAW 58-52
+2.5
11
vs
TULN
TULNL 62-66
+1.5
14
@
MCN
MCNL 62-88
−10.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BALL
BALLL 64-75
−2.5
7
vsSELA
SELAW 58-52
−25.5
11
vsTULN
TULNL 62-66
−7.5
14
@MCN
MCNL 62-88
+15.5
over 1under 3avg −5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Stanford
3 games played
Straight up
3-0
100% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg +1.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg +9.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
PRST
PRSTW 89-79
−1.5
8
vs
MONT
MONTW 91-68
+10.5
12
vs
MTST
MTSTW 77-68
−5.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsPRST
PRSTW 89-79
+23.5
8
vsMONT
MONTW 91-68
+8.5
12
vsMTST
MTSTW 77-68
−3.5
over 2under 1avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Louisiana
1-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ McNeese62–88
- Lvs Tulane62–66
- Wvs SE Louisiana58–52
- L@ Ball State64–75
4 days since their last game.
Stanford
3-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Montana St77–68
- Wvs Montana91–68
- Wvs Portland St89–79
6 days since their last game.