Quinnipiac Bobcats at Pittsburgh Panthers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 5:00 PM ETPetersen Events Center · at Pitt

#241QUINQuinnipiac83▲ winner

Final

#74PITTPitt75final

Closing linePITT -12.5✓ QUIN covered by 20.5

Closing total140.5Over by 17.5

Season records: Quinnipiac and Pitt
QUIN	This season	PITT
2-2	Record	4-2
2-2	ATS	3-3
2-2	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: QUIN 66–79 PITT · ✗ PITT (88%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
QUIN	47	36	83
PITT	37	38	75

1st half: QUIN 47, PITT 37 (QUIN by 10). The model had PITT by 8.0 and a total of 67.8 (actual 84).

Team stats

QUIN		PITT
28-49 57%	Field goals	27-61 44%
11-17 65%	3-pointers	9-28 32%
16-24 67%	Free throws	12-20 60%
28 7 off	Rebounds	33 17 off
16	Assists	11
9	Steals	11
3	Blocks	4
15	Turnovers	15
14	Fouls	17
22	Points in paint	36
6	Fast-break points	10

Players

QUIN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Grant Randall F	35	15	5	0	5-7	3-3
Jaden Zimmerman G	32	8	1	0	3-10	1-4
Amarri Monroe F	31	25	3	3	9-13	4-6
Asim Jones G	22	6	4	3	1-7	0-1
Spence Wewe F	16	7	5	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Keith McKnight F	29	7	7	1	3-4	0-0
Tai Turnage G	18	7	1	7	2-2	1-1
Samson Reilly G	10	6	0	1	2-2	2-2
Nate Guerengomba G	7	2	1	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Christopher Skenderi, Sam Nosakhare, Jayden Reid, Akintola Akinniyi, Braylan Ritvo, Ronell Giles Jr.

PITT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Roman Siulepa F	37	20	8	1	9-12	0-1
Barry Dunning Jr. G	36	17	5	0	5-14	3-11
Damarco Minor G	36	6	3	3	1-6	1-5
Cameron Corhen F	34	13	7	3	5-10	2-2
Omari Witherspoon G	16	3	2	1	1-5	1-2
Bench
Nojus Indrusaitis G	30	14	3	2	5-12	2-7
Macari Moore G	7	2	0	1	1-1	0-0
Papa Amadou Kante F	4	0	2	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Dishon Jackson, Henry Lau, Kieran Mullen, Amdy Ndiaye, Jajuan Nelson, Benjamin Mayhew, Brandin Cummings

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PITT -12.5	PITT -13.5	PITT +1.0	L QUIN covered
Total	140.5	144.8	Over 4.3	W Over
Projected score	—	QUIN 65.6 · PITT 79.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PITT -8.0	QUIN -10.0
1H total	67.8	84
1H projected score	QUIN 29.9 · PITT 37.9	QUIN 47 · PITT 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
QUIN LWLW	2-2	50%	1-1	0-2
PITT WLLWL	3-3	50%	3-1	3-2

Venue/role: QUIN away, as underdog; PITT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
QUIN OUOU	2-2	50%	2-2
PITT UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
QUINlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%
PITTlast 6	4-2 67%	3-3 50%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Quinnipiac

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −5.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SJU	L 74-108	+26.5	L −7.5	156.5	O 182
Nov 6	vsCCSU	W 71-49	-9.5	W +12.5	150.5	U 120
Nov 11	vsYALE	L 60-97	+6.5	L −30.5	156.5	O 157
Nov 16	@ME	W 70-64	-3.5	W +2.5	137.5	U 134

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SJU

L 74-108

−7.5

CCSU

W 71-49

+12.5

YALE

L 60-97

−30.5

W 70-64

+2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SJU

L 74-108

+25.5

CCSU

W 71-49

−30.5

YALE

L 60-97

+0.5

W 70-64

−3.5

over 2under 2avg −2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pitt

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg −1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-350%

W W L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-517%

U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsYSU	W 74-59	-14.5	W +0.5	145.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsLONG	W 78-60	-14.5	W +3.5	145.5	U 138
Nov 10	vsEMU	W 78-66	-15.5	L −3.5	141.5	O 144
Nov 13	@WVU	L 49-71	+5.5	L −16.5	134.5	U 120
Nov 17	vsBUCK	W 84-50	-16.5	W +17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	vsUCF	L 67-77	-1.5	L −11.5	149.5	U 144

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

+0.5

LONG

W 78-60

+3.5

EMU

W 78-66

−3.5

WVU

L 49-71

−16.5

BUCK

W 84-50

+17.5

UCF

L 67-77

−11.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg −1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

YSU

W 74-59

−12.5

LONG

W 78-60

−7.5

EMU

W 78-66

+2.5

WVU

L 49-71

−14.5

BUCK

W 84-50

−7.5

UCF

L 67-77

−5.5

over 1under 5avg −7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Quinnipiac @ Pitt

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Quinnipiac

Pitt

Quinnipiac

Pitt