Howard Bison at Duke Blue Devils: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 4:00 PM ETCameron Indoor Stadium · at Duke

#197HOWHoward56final

Final

#3DUKEDuke AP #593▲ winner

Closing lineDUKE -43.5✓ HOW covered by 6.5

Closing total154.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Howard and Duke
HOW	This season	DUKE
2-3	Record	6-0
2-3	ATS	6-0
1-4	O/U	1-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HOW 55–94 DUKE · ✓ DUKE (100%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HOW	18	38	56
DUKE	52	41	93

1st half: HOW 18, DUKE 52 (DUKE by 34). The model had DUKE by 23.2 and a total of 69.7 (actual 70).

Team stats

HOW		DUKE
17-56 30%	Field goals	36-59 61%
7-21 33%	3-pointers	7-25 28%
15-21 71%	Free throws	14-22 64%
26 8 off	Rebounds	43 9 off
12	Assists	22
6	Steals	6
2	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	11
20	Fouls	22
14	Points in paint	58
1	Fast-break points	22

Players

HOW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Bryce Harris G	30	15	4	3	3-12	1-5
Alex Cotton G	25	5	4	1	2-7	1-5
Cam Gillus G	21	2	2	1	1-7	0-2
Ose Okojie G	18	2	0	2	1-1	0-0
Danas Kazakevicius C	11	2	1	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Travelle Bryson G	23	13	3	0	4-10	3-4
Jeremiah Johnson G	18	0	0	1	0-2	0-1
BJ Powell G	18	8	2	0	3-8	2-3
Isaiah Brown G	8	2	0	2	0-2	0-1
Ed Holland III G	7	1	3	1	0-1	0-0
Stefan Isailovic F	7	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Julian Johnson F	5	1	1	1	0-0	0-0
Shane Frazier G	3	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
River Smith G	3	1	1	0	0-0	0-0
Calvin Robins Jr. F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Cedric Taylor III

DUKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cameron Boozer F	26	26	12	4	10-12	2-3
Isaiah Evans G	24	11	4	2	4-8	1-5
Dame Sarr F	23	6	8	1	2-6	1-3
Caleb Foster G	22	6	2	1	2-4	0-2
Patrick Ngongba II C	17	16	5	2	8-9	0-1
Bench
Cayden Boozer G	24	4	1	7	0-2	0-1
Nik Khamenia F	20	7	3	4	3-4	1-2
Darren Harris G	19	8	1	1	3-6	1-4
Maliq Brown F	13	6	2	0	3-4	0-1
Cameron Sheffield G	4	3	0	0	1-3	1-3
Ifeanyi Ufochukwu C	4	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Jack Scott G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Sebastian Wilkins

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DUKE -43.5	DUKE -38.6	HOW +4.9	W HOW covered
Total	154.5	148.8	Under 5.7	W Under
Projected score	—	HOW 55.1 · DUKE 93.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DUKE -23.2	DUKE -34.0
1H total	69.7	70
1H projected score	HOW 23.3 · DUKE 46.4	HOW 18 · DUKE 52

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOW LLWLW	2-3	40%	0-1	0-1
DUKE WWWWW	6-0	100%	3-0	6-0

Venue/role: HOW away, as underdog; DUKE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOW UUUUO	1-4	20%	2-3
DUKE UOUUU	1-5	17%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOWlast 5	2-3 40%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%
DUKElast 6	6-0 100%	6-0 100%	1-5 17%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Howard

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −9.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

L L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L L W L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMIZ	L 67-88	+20.5	L −0.5	158.5	U 155
Nov 9	vsGRAM	L 70-73	-4.5	L −7.5	152.5	U 143
Nov 13	vsALCN	W 72-64	-6.5	W +1.5	154.5	U 136
Nov 19	@STET	L 60-64	-1.5	L −5.5	149.5	U 124
Nov 22	vsNIA	W 80-70	-4.5	W +5.5	138.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−0.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−7.5

ALCN

W 72-64

+1.5

STET

L 60-64

−5.5

NIA

W 80-70

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MIZ

L 67-88

−3.5

GRAM

L 70-73

−9.5

ALCN

W 72-64

−18.5

STET

L 60-64

−25.5

NIA

W 80-70

+11.5

over 1under 4avg −9.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Duke

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

6-0

100% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −2.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsTEX	W 75-60	-10.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsWCU	W 95-54	-36.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 11	@ARMY	W 114-59	-33.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 14	vsINST	W 100-62	-37.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 162
Nov 18	vsKU	W 78-66	-10.5	W +1.5	149.5	U 144
Nov 21	vsNIA	W 100-42	-39.5	W +18.5	146.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

+4.5

WCU

W 95-54

+4.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+21.5

INST

W 100-62

+0.5

W 78-66

+1.5

NIA

W 100-42

+18.5

covered 6didn’t cover 0avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

−18.5

WCU

W 95-54

−3.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+20.5

INST

W 100-62

−1.5

W 78-66

−5.5

NIA

W 100-42

−4.5

over 1under 5avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Howard @ Duke

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Howard

Duke

Howard

Duke