North Carolina Central Eagles at Dayton Flyers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 2:00 PM ETUD Arena · at Dayton

#357NCCUNC Central55final

Final

#91DAYDayton74▲ winner

Closing lineDAY -29.5✓ NCCU covered by 10.5

Closing total146.5Under by 17.5

Season records: NC Central and Dayton
NCCU	This season	DAY
0-4	Record	4-1
1-3	ATS	2-3
1-3	O/U	1-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NCCU 63–87 DAY · ✓ DAY (98%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NCCU	20	35	55
DAY	44	30	74

1st half: NCCU 20, DAY 44 (DAY by 24). The model had DAY by 14.1 and a total of 70.1 (actual 64).

Team stats

NCCU		DAY
19-51 37%	Field goals	27-63 43%
6-14 43%	3-pointers	9-32 28%
11-13 85%	Free throws	11-19 58%
36 9 off	Rebounds	38 13 off
9	Assists	13
3	Steals	11
6	Blocks	5
18	Turnovers	7
17	Fouls	17
22	Points in paint	32
4	Fast-break points	14

Players

NCCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Gage Lattimore G	39	13	7	1	4-12	2-6
Dionte Johnson G	33	3	5	5	1-6	1-3
Khouri Carvey F	32	15	4	0	6-9	1-1
Kelechi Okworogwo F	32	4	6	1	1-7	0-1
Kyric Davis G	29	10	4	1	4-10	0-1
Bench
Tekao Carpenter G	21	5	1	0	2-3	1-1
Khalil Arnold G	4	0	2	1	0-1	0-0
Jae Slack F	3	5	2	0	1-1	1-1
Ryan Archey G	3	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Ramondo Battle II F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Gbenga Olubi F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Camren Daniels G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Caleb Ellison, Jonathan Dunn, Justin Edwards

DAY	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javon Bennett G	27	8	3	4	3-8	2-7
De'Shayne Montgomery G	26	17	2	5	7-10	2-4
Jordan Derkack G	22	1	4	2	0-3	0-2
Keonte Jones G	22	4	7	0	2-6	0-1
Amal L'Etang F	18	11	4	0	5-9	1-3
Bench
Jacob Conner F	24	10	6	0	3-5	2-4
Malcolm Thomas F	21	12	2	1	3-6	0-1
Bryce Heard G	15	8	3	1	3-6	2-4
Jaiun Simon F	14	3	3	0	1-5	0-2
Damon Friery F	8	0	3	0	0-2	0-2
Will Maxwell G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Evan Dickey G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Makai Grant G	1	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Adam Njie, Jaron McKie

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DAY -29.5	DAY -23.7	NCCU +5.8	W NCCU covered
Total	146.5	149.7	Over 3.2	L Under
Projected score	—	NCCU 63 · DAY 86.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DAY -14.1	DAY -24.0
1H total	70.1	64
1H projected score	NCCU 28 · DAY 42.1	NCCU 20 · DAY 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NCCU LWLL	1-3	25%	1-3	1-3
DAY WLLLW	2-3	40%	1-2	1-2

Venue/role: NCCU away, as underdog; DAY home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NCCU OUUU	1-3	25%	0-4
DAY UUUOU	1-4	20%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NCCUlast 4	0-4 0%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%
DAYlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	1-4 20%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

NC Central

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

O U U U

3 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@NCSU	L 66-114	+31.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 180
Nov 7	@UVA	L 62-81	+34.5	W +15.5	151.5	U 143
Nov 9	@APP	L 54-76	+10.5	L −11.5	136.5	U 130
Nov 14	@UNC	L 53-97	+34.5	L −9.5	159.5	U 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

−16.5

UVA

L 62-81

+15.5

APP

L 54-76

−11.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCSU

L 66-114

+34.5

UVA

L 62-81

−8.5

APP

L 54-76

−6.5

UNC

L 53-97

−9.5

over 1under 3avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Dayton

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −0.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

W L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsCAN	W 88-48	-25.5	W +14.5	142.5	U 136
Nov 8	vsUMBC	W 77-71	-25.5	L −19.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 11	@CIN	L 62-74	+5.5	L −6.5	147.5	U 136
Nov 15	vsBCU	W 91-82	-21.5	L −12.5	148.5	O 173
Nov 19	@MARQ	W 77-71	+6.5	W +12.5	151.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

+14.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−19.5

CIN

L 62-74

−6.5

BCU

W 91-82

−12.5

MARQ

W 77-71

+12.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAN

W 88-48

−6.5

UMBC

W 77-71

−6.5

CIN

L 62-74

−11.5

BCU

W 91-82

+24.5

MARQ

W 77-71

−3.5

over 1under 4avg −0.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

NC Central @ Dayton

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

NC Central

Dayton

NC Central

Dayton