Lehigh Mountain Hawks at Marist Red Foxes: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 7:00 PM ETMcCann Arena · at Marist

#216LEHLehigh55final

Final

#236MRSTMarist78▲ winner

Closing lineMRST -7.5✓ MRST covered by 15.5

Closing total132.5Over by 0.5

Season records: Lehigh and Marist
LEH	This season	MRST
1-4	Record	2-2
3-2	ATS	2-2
2-3	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LEH 63–70 MRST · ✓ MRST (74%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LEH	21	34	55
MRST	38	40	78

1st half: LEH 21, MRST 38 (MRST by 17). The model had MRST by 4.2 and a total of 62.2 (actual 59).

Team stats

LEH		MRST
21-59 36%	Field goals	28-60 47%
2-19 11%	3-pointers	9-26 35%
11-18 61%	Free throws	13-17 76%
32 8 off	Rebounds	43 10 off
7	Assists	14
5	Steals	4
1	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	9
14	Fouls	16
26	Points in paint	30
9	Fast-break points	13

Players

LEH	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nasir Whitlock G	31	17	8	0	6-12	0-3
Caleb Thomas G	28	8	2	2	2-7	1-1
Joshua Ingram G	28	4	3	2	2-5	0-1
Hank Alvey C	22	8	3	0	3-9	0-0
Peter Kramer G	21	2	1	1	1-5	0-4
Bench
Andrew Urosevic G	17	7	1	0	3-10	1-7
Jalen Vazquez G	17	5	2	2	2-3	0-0
Jake Pike F	16	2	5	0	1-2	0-1
Alfredo Addesa F	9	0	2	0	0-5	0-2
Henri Adiassa C	6	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Tommy Conniff C	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Brendan Reed G	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Edouard Benoit, Caesar Burrows, Bube Momah

MRST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jadin Collins-Roberts G	33	13	6	5	6-8	1-3
Justin Menard G	26	17	3	2	8-11	1-3
Elijah Lewis G	25	9	6	1	2-5	2-3
Jaden Daughtry F	21	4	8	2	2-4	0-1
Parby Kabamba F	18	10	4	1	4-12	2-8
Bench
Rhyjon Blackwell G	25	12	6	0	4-12	2-6
Myles Parker F	17	7	2	0	1-2	1-2
Jason Schofield C	16	2	3	1	1-5	0-0
Martin Kawa G	10	2	1	1	0-0	0-0
Jordan Gabriel C	7	2	2	1	0-0	0-0
Antoni Vlogianitis G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Ricky McKenzie G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Trace Salton, Tarik Watson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MRST -7.5	MRST -7.2	LEH +0.3	L MRST covered
Total	132.5	132.6	Over 0.1	W Over
Projected score	—	LEH 62.7 · MRST 69.9

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRST -4.2	MRST -17.0
1H total	62.2	59
1H projected score	LEH 29 · MRST 33.2	LEH 21 · MRST 38

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LEH WLWWL	3-2	60%	2-1	2-2
MRST WWLL	2-2	50%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: LEH away, as underdog; MRST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LEH UUOUO	2-3	40%	1-4
MRST UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LEHlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
MRSTlast 4	2-2 50%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LEH 3–0 MRSTLEH leads · 3 games since 2021-22 · LEH has won the last 3 meetings · LEH 3-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 30, 2024-25	MRST 69 @ LEH 74	LEH -1.5	LEH W
Dec 30, 2023-24	LEH 65 @ MRST 58	MRST -5.5	LEH W
Nov 16, 2022-23	MRST 54 @ LEH 64	LEH -3.5	LEH W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lehigh

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −2.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@HOU	L 57-75	+36.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 132
Nov 9	@WVU	L 47-69	+17.5	L −4.5	139.5	U 116
Nov 14	@RUTG	L 72-84	+18.5	W +6.5	136.5	O 156
Nov 18	vsSFPA	W 79-62	-10.5	W +6.5	151.5	U 141
Nov 21	vsCOLU	L 67-82	+2.5	L −12.5	143.5	O 149

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOU

L 57-75

+18.5

WVU

L 47-69

−4.5

RUTG

L 72-84

+6.5

SFPA

W 79-62

+6.5

COLU

L 67-82

−12.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOU

L 57-75

−4.5

WVU

L 47-69

−23.5

RUTG

L 72-84

+19.5

SFPA

W 79-62

−10.5

COLU

L 67-82

+5.5

over 2under 3avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marist

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +4.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@XAV	L 62-66	+12.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 9	@DART	W 75-56	+1.5	W +20.5	138.5	U 131
Nov 16	vsHARV	L 54-56	-6.5	L −8.5	130.5	U 110
Nov 21	vsARMY	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	132.5	O 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

+8.5

DART

W 75-56

+20.5

HARV

L 54-56

−8.5

ARMY

W 76-65

−1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

−11.5

DART

W 75-56

−7.5

HARV

L 54-56

−20.5

ARMY

W 76-65

+8.5

over 1under 3avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lehigh @ Marist

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lehigh

Marist

Lehigh

Marist