Holy Cross Crusaders vs Hampton Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 16, 1:00 PM ETPizzitola Sports Center · Neutral site

#317HCHoly Cross67▲ winner

Final

#159HAMPHampton61final

Closing lineHAMP -4.5✓ HC covered by 10.5

Closing total148.5Under by 20.5

Season records: Holy Cross and Hampton
HC	This season	HAMP
0-3	Record	1-2
2-1	ATS	2-1
2-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HC 71–76 HAMP · ✗ HAMP (67%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HC	32	35	67
HAMP	29	32	61

1st half: HC 32, HAMP 29 (HC by 3). The model had HAMP by 2.9 and a total of 69.2 (actual 61).

Team stats

HC		HAMP
23-45 51%	Field goals	20-54 37%
6-17 35%	3-pointers	5-20 25%
15-15 100%	Free throws	16-17 94%
24 4 off	Rebounds	32 15 off
9	Assists	8
10	Steals	4
0	Blocks	4
12	Turnovers	11
13	Fouls	14
28	Points in paint	24
4	Fast-break points	2

Players

HC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Boston G	35	14	3	2	4-11	2-3
Aidan Richard F	32	6	3	2	2-6	0-3
Gabe Warren G	32	4	2	3	2-4	0-1
Joe Nugent F	32	22	4	1	6-10	4-7
Aiden Disu F	28	10	4	0	5-7	0-1
Bench
DeAndre Williams G	20	2	3	1	1-3	0-2
Declan Ryan F	16	9	2	0	3-4	0-0
Jaden Kirkwood G	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Chuck Hare F	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Austin Mejia, Ethan Clark, Tim Finau, Jude Haigh, Will Aljancic, John St. Germain III, Ben Capron

HAMP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Xzavier Long F	37	21	13	4	5-10	1-3
Kody Williams G	21	3	2	0	1-3	1-3
Josh Ogundele F	18	10	4	1	4-4	0-0
Michael Eley G	13	0	1	1	0-3	0-1
Jalyke Gaines-Wyatt G	12	0	0	0	0-4	0-2
Bench
Daniel Johnson F	28	12	3	0	5-9	2-4
Christian Watson G	24	0	0	1	0-3	0-2
Etienne Strothers G	20	4	0	0	1-4	0-2
Quintin Cooper G	18	11	4	1	4-13	1-3
Eunique Rink F	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Peter Oduro F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Elijah Kennedy G	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Aidan Haskins, Hamza Asadallah, Kellan Lewis

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HAMP -4.5	HAMP -5.0	HAMP +0.5	L HC covered
Total	148.5	147.6	Under 0.9	W Under
Projected score	—	HC 71.3 · HAMP 76.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HAMP -2.9	HC -3.0
1H total	69.2	61
1H projected score	HC 33.2 · HAMP 36	HC 32 · HAMP 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
HC WLW	2-1	67%	—	2-1
HAMP WLW	2-1	67%	—	—

Venue/role: HC neutral site, as underdog; HAMP neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HC OUO	2-1	67%	0-3
HAMP OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HClast 3	0-3 0%	2-1 67%	2-1 67%
HAMPlast 3	1-2 33%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Holy Cross

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg +0.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@PROV	L 79-89	+23.5	W +13.5	152.5	O 168
Nov 8	@BYU	L 53-98	+38.5	L −6.5	165.5	U 151
Nov 10	@UTAH	L 69-87	+21.5	W +3.5	155.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+13.5

BYU

L 53-98

−6.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

PROV

L 79-89

+15.5

BYU

L 53-98

−14.5

UTAH

L 69-87

+0.5

over 2under 1avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Hampton

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg +6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MILW	L 86-90	+5.5	W +1.5	146.5	O 176
Nov 11	@UVA	L 53-91	+24.5	L −13.5	148.5	U 144
Nov 14	@BRWN	W 72-63	+1.5	W +10.5	139.5	U 135

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MILW

L 86-90

+1.5

UVA

L 53-91

−13.5

BRWN

W 72-63

+10.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MILW

L 86-90

+29.5

UVA

L 53-91

−4.5

BRWN

W 72-63

−4.5

over 1under 2avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Holy Cross vs Hampton

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Holy Cross

Hampton

Holy Cross

Hampton