Central Connecticut Blue Devils at Seton Hall Pirates: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 7:00 PM ETWalsh Gymnasium · at Seton Hall

Final

#67HALLSeton Hall77▲ winner

Closing lineHALL -18.5✓ CCSU covered by 2.5

Closing total128.5Over by 9.5

Season records: C Connecticut and Seton Hall
CCSU	This season	HALL
3-2	Record	7-1
3-2	ATS	5-3
2-3	O/U	3-5

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: CCSU 59–76 HALL · ✓ HALL (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
CCSU	27	34	61
HALL	37	40	77

1st half: CCSU 27, HALL 37 (HALL by 10). The model had HALL by 10.5 and a total of 63.2 (actual 64).

Team stats

CCSU		HALL
22-51 43%	Field goals	27-59 46%
8-21 38%	3-pointers	11-20 55%
9-12 75%	Free throws	12-15 80%
31 8 off	Rebounds	34 11 off
13	Assists	20
6	Steals	13
5	Blocks	2
15	Turnovers	8
14	Fouls	11
26	Points in paint	26
5	Fast-break points	11

Players

CCSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jay Rodgers G	35	9	3	8	4-7	1-3
Darin Smith Jr. G	34	20	3	0	6-17	4-9
James Jones G	32	12	13	2	4-8	2-3
Max Frazier F	31	13	6	2	5-8	0-0
Melo Sanchez G	17	3	0	0	1-4	1-4
Bench
Elijah Parker G	22	4	0	1	2-3	0-0
Gabe Spinelli G	13	0	3	0	0-1	0-1
Jayden Mott F	7	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Nico Ashley F	5	0	1	0	0-2	0-0
Daniel James F	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Rashawn Tibby, Ja'Kobe Williams, Ashton Reynolds, Corsley Edwards Jr., Roddy Jones, Adam Fox

HALL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Adam Clark G	31	10	4	12	3-8	0-2
Mike Williams III G	27	12	5	3	3-10	2-5
Stephon Payne F	23	6	7	0	3-5	0-0
AJ Staton-McCray G	22	12	2	2	5-9	2-3
Elijah Fisher G	14	2	1	1	1-3	0-0
Bench
Tajuan Simpkins G	23	10	1	0	4-6	2-3
Trey Parker G	18	6	1	2	2-5	2-4
Jacob Dar G	16	9	3	0	3-4	2-2
Na'jai Hines C	16	5	7	0	1-4	0-0
Joshua Rivera F	10	5	1	0	2-5	1-1

Did not play: David Gabriel, Assane Mbaye, Jahseem Felton, Godswill Erheriene, Patrick Suemnick

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	HALL -18.5	HALL -17.7	CCSU +0.8	W CCSU covered
Total	128.5	134.7	Over 6.2	W Over
Projected score	—	CCSU 58.5 · HALL 76.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	HALL -10.5	HALL -10.0
1H total	63.2	64
1H projected score	CCSU 26.3 · HALL 36.8	CCSU 27 · HALL 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CCSU LWWWL	3-2	60%	3-1	3-1
HALL LLWWW	5-3	63%	2-3	3-3

Venue/role: CCSU away, as underdog; HALL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
CCSU UUOUO	2-3	40%	3-2
HALL UUOOU	3-5	38%	7-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CCSUlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
HALLlast 8	7-1 88%	5-3 63%	3-5 38%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

C Connecticut

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +7.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg +4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

L W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	@QUIN	L 49-71	+9.5	L −12.5	150.5	U 120
Nov 11	@BC	W 60-59	+17.5	W +18.5	136.5	U 119
Nov 16	@MASS	L 77-84	+12.5	W +5.5	144.5	O 161
Nov 21	@RUTG	W 67-54	+15.5	W +28.5	137.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsSHU	W 108-106	-3.5	L −1.5	143.5	O 214

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

QUIN

L 49-71

−12.5

W 60-59

+18.5

MASS

L 77-84

+5.5

RUTG

W 67-54

+28.5

SHU

W 108-106

−1.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +7.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

QUIN

L 49-71

−30.5

W 60-59

−17.5

MASS

L 77-84

+16.5

RUTG

W 67-54

−16.5

SHU

W 108-106

+70.5

over 2under 3avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Seton Hall

8 games played

Straight up

7-1

88% wins

Against the spread

5-3

63% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-5

38% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

7-188%

W W W W W W L W

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

5-363%

W L W L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-538%

U U O U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSPU	W 77-50	-13.5	W +13.5	129.5	U 127
Nov 7	vsWAG	W 68-61	-21.5	L −14.5	134.5	U 129
Nov 10	vsFAIR	W 82-59	-14.5	W +8.5	137.5	O 141
Nov 13	vsMONM	W 70-58	-15.5	L −3.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 18	vsNHVN	W 68-45	-25.5	L −2.5	129.5	U 113
Nov 24	vsNCSU	W 85-74	+7.5	W +18.5	143.5	O 159
Nov 25	vsUSC	L 81-83	+6.5	W +4.5	145.5	O 164
Nov 26	vsWSU	W 75-61	-8.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 136

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SPU

W 77-50

+13.5

WAG

W 68-61

−14.5

FAIR

W 82-59

+8.5

MONM

W 70-58

−3.5

NHVN

W 68-45

−2.5

NCSU

W 85-74

+18.5

USC

L 81-83

+4.5

WSU

W 75-61

+5.5

covered 5didn’t cover 3avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SPU

W 77-50

−2.5

WAG

W 68-61

−5.5

FAIR

W 82-59

+3.5

MONM

W 70-58

−7.5

NHVN

W 68-45

−16.5

NCSU

W 85-74

+15.5

USC

L 81-83

+18.5

WSU

W 75-61

−11.5

over 3under 5avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

C Connecticut @ Seton Hall

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

C Connecticut

Seton Hall

C Connecticut

Seton Hall