State Farm Field House · Neutral site
Closing line
LIB -8.5✓ UVM covered by 2.5
LIB -8.5✓ UVM covered by 2.5Closing total141.5Over by 10.5
| LIB | This season | UVM |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Record | 2-1 |
| 2-0 | ATS | 1-2 |
| 2-0 | O/U | 3-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: LIB 79–72 UVM · ✓ LIB (72%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIB | 40 | 39 | 79 |
| UVM | 32 | 41 | 73 |
1st half: LIB 40, UVM 32 (LIB by 8). The model had LIB by 4.2 and a total of 70.5 (actual 72).
Team stats
| LIB | UVM | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-54 56% | Field goals | 27-56 48% |
| 10-24 42% | 3-pointers | 8-24 33% |
| 9-18 50% | Free throws | 11-15 73% |
| 26 3 off | Rebounds | 33 7 off |
| 16 | Assists | 11 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 3 | Blocks | 2 |
| 8 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 17 | Fouls | 18 |
| 38 | Points in paint | 30 |
| 6 | Fast-break points | 4 |
Players
| LIB | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Decker Jr. G | 36 | 23 | 4 | 1 | 7-11 | 5-7 |
| Kaden Metheny G | 36 | 14 | 3 | 3 | 5-14 | 1-7 |
| Colin Porter G | 35 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 4-9 | 2-7 |
| Zach Cleveland F | 35 | 14 | 6 | 7 | 6-7 | 0-0 |
| JJ Harper G | 31 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3-7 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Zander Carter G | 13 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Josh Smith F | 7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Zander Yates F | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Ryan Jones Jr. F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Brady Kester, Torr Sorensen, Isaiah Ihnen, Drew Grimes, TJ Drain, JC Shirer Jr.
| UVM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TJ Long G | 32 | 19 | 5 | 0 | 7-16 | 3-10 |
| Lucas Mari G | 27 | 10 | 11 | 3 | 4-8 | 2-5 |
| TJ Hurley G | 26 | 15 | 1 | 1 | 5-9 | 2-5 |
| Gus Yalden F | 19 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 7-11 | 1-2 |
| Noah Barnett F | 14 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Momo Nkugwa G | 27 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-4 | 0-1 |
| Sean Blake G | 21 | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Benjamin Michaels F | 13 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Jackson Skipper F | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Ben Johnson G | 7 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| David Simon F | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Drew Bessette, Sincere Clemons, Trey Woodyard, Ben Wesson, Chris Kuzemka
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenLIB -8.5
no move
CloseLIB -8.5
No change since the open
Total
Open145.5
▼ 4
Close141.5
Down 4 since the open
Moneyline
LIB -450 · UVM +340
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened LIB -8.5 · unchangedmodel LIB -6.5
model LIB -6.5
Opened 145.5 · closed 141.5 · moved 4 downmodel 150.5
model 150.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | LIB -8.5 | LIB -6.7 | UVM +1.8 | W UVM covered |
| Total | 141.5 | 150.5 | Over 9.0 | W Over |
| Projected score | — | LIB 78.6 · UVM 71.9 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | LIB -4.2 | LIB -8.0 |
| 1H total | 70.5 | 72 |
| 1H projected score | LIB 37.3 · UVM 33.2 | LIB 40 · UVM 32 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| LIBlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% |
| UVMlast 3 | 2-1 67% | 1-2 33% | 3-0 100% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
LIB 1–0 UVMLIB leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · LIB 1-0 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2023-24 | UVM 61 vs LIB 71 | LIB -5.5 | LIB W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Liberty
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-0
100% covers · avg +9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-0
100% overs · avg +11.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
7
vs
COFC
COFCW 90-75
+5.5
9
vs
FAU
FAUW 88-68
+12.5
covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
7
vsCOFC
COFCW 90-75
+19.5
9
vsFAU
FAUW 88-68
+3.5
over 2under 0avg +11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Vermont
3 games played
Straight up
2-1
67% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg +2.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-0
100% overs · avg +36.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
9
@
BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
−0.5
15
@
NE
NEW 85-74
+12.5
18
@
BUF
BUFL 90-94
−5.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg +2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
9
@BRWN
BRWNW 89-84
+41.5
15
@NE
NEW 85-74
+24.5
18
@BUF
BUFL 90-94
+42.5
over 3under 0avg +36.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Liberty
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Conference USA
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs FAU88–68
- Wvs Charleston90–75
A week or more of rest.
Vermont
2-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · America East Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Buffalo90–94
- W@ Northeastern85–74
- W@ Brown89–84
6 days since their last game.