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College game flow: when games go over and when the cover is settled

When do games go over, and when is the cover settled?

Pick a season and week, then choose when the game went over to see those games. FBS games from the past four seasons with quarter scores and a closing line.

When did they go over?

519 games · 2026 · pick one to list those games
Went overAll games519100%By halftime71%In Q36913%In Q419337%In OT31%Stayed under24748%
Last 5 minutesCover changed hands5611%Over cashed7915%Leader lost the game306%
52% went over. Of the 272 overs, 3% had cashed by halftime and 28% by the end of the 3rd quarter. Covers were settled only in the 4th quarter or overtime in 19% of games.

Went over in overtime: 3 games

2026 · newest first
Show all games
GameLineTotalPoints by quarterOverCover settledFinal
2026 · Week 7
 MIA -20.5 57.5 728355678 OT FSU Q1
Late over
 35–43
2026 · Week 2
 OHIO -1.5 48.5 731384856 OT OHIO OT
Late cover flip Late over Lead lost
 27–29
2026 · Week 2
 WAKE -2.5 51.5 1427334674 OT PUR Q4
Late cover flip Late over
 38–36
Final score is away–home. Points by quarter are combined points at the end of each quarter; the highlighted one is when the over cashed.

When was the cover settled?

From the end of that quarter on, the side covering never changed
Q1 46% 239
Q2 15% 79
Q3 18% 95
Q4 19% 97
OT 0% 2
Push 1% 7
The team leading at halftime won 83% and covered 66% of 493 games
The team leading after 3 quarters won 89% and covered 72% of 496 games

Going into the 4th quarter

Points the game still needed after 3 quarters, and how often it got there
Points neededGamesWent over
Already over76100% 76
1–34095% 38
4–74689% 41
8–104678% 36
11–147254% 39
15–173938% 15
18–215630% 17
22+1447% 10
Quarter scores from ESPN for the past four seasons; closing lines from the ESPN odds feed. Timing is to the quarter: an over that cashed with 10 seconds left in the 3rd counts as Q3. “Settled” means the team covering at the end of that quarter covered the closing spread at the end, with no change in between. Last 5 minutes (4th quarter, plus overtime) compares the score with 5:00 left, from ESPN scoring plays, with the final. History, not a prediction: none of this has shown an edge against the market.