Pensacola Bay Center · Neutral site
Closing line
UTM -1.5✓ USM covered by 11.5
UTM -1.5✓ USM covered by 11.5Closing total146.5Under by 16.5
| UTM | This season | USM |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| 3-1 | ATS | 1-3 |
| 2-2 | O/U | 3-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UTM 77–77 USM · ✓ USM (50%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTM | 22 | 38 | 60 |
| USM | 41 | 29 | 70 |
1st half: UTM 22, USM 41 (USM by 19). The model had UTM by 0.1 and a total of 71.8 (actual 63).
Team stats
| UTM | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 21-46 46% | Field goals | 28-54 52% |
| 7-21 33% | 3-pointers | 6-16 38% |
| 11-20 55% | Free throws | 8-15 53% |
| 27 9 off | Rebounds | 34 13 off |
| 10 | Assists | 10 |
| 4 | Steals | 5 |
| 3 | Blocks | 3 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 8 |
| 12 | Fouls | 18 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 40 |
| 2 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| UTM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Petkovski G | 30 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Afan Trnka G | 23 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1-3 | 0-2 |
| Andrija Bukumirovic F | 22 | 4 | 6 | 1 | 1-5 | 1-4 |
| Matas Deniusas F | 20 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Dragos Lungu G | 15 | 11 | 3 | 0 | 5-8 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Damien King G | 20 | 11 | 0 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Luca Colceag F | 18 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| AJ Hopkins F | 17 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0-3 | 0-1 |
| Lamine Niang C | 15 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Pedro Santos G | 10 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 2-6 | 1-3 |
| Ama Sow F | 8 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ty Price G | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
Did not play: Will Hopkins, Vladimir Khryapa, Charlie King, James Bass, Enrique Moya, Filip Radakovic, Lucas Williams
| USM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Brumfield G | 36 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 1-8 | 0-1 |
| Tylik Weeks F | 34 | 14 | 7 | 3 | 7-9 | 0-0 |
| Curt Lewis G | 33 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3-6 | 3-6 |
| Djahi Binet F | 26 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 6-8 | 0-0 |
| Isaac Taveras G | 20 | 10 | 5 | 1 | 5-7 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Israel Hart G | 20 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 3-10 | 3-7 |
| Tegra Izay C | 10 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 3-3 | 0-0 |
| Chiante' Tramble G | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Felipe Patino G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Fallou Diagne C | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Brewer Carruth G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| EJ Paymon F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| IJ Ezuma F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Dalyn Brandon G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jett Montgomery, Robert Cowherd, Chandler Watts, Blake Lander
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketUTM -1.5
ModelUSM -0.1
Model edgeUSM +1.6
W USM covered
Total
Market146.5
Model153.2
Model edgeOver 6.7
L Under
Projected score
UTM 76.5 · USM 76.6
UTM 60 · USM 70
Win probability
USM 50%
1st half
Spread
UTM -0.1
USM -19.0
Total
71.8
63 points
Projected score
UTM 35.9 · USM 35.8
UTM 22 · USM 41
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUTM -1.5
no move
CloseUTM -1.5
No change since the open
Total
Open149.5
▼ 3
Close146.5
Down 3 since the open
Moneyline
UTM -120 · USM +100
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UTM -1.5 · unchangedmodel USM -0
model USM -0
Opened 149.5 · closed 146.5 · moved 3 downmodel 153
model 153
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTMlast 4 | 3-1 75% | 3-1 75% | 2-2 50% |
| USMlast 4 | 1-3 25% | 1-3 25% | 3-1 75% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UT Martin
4 games played
Straight up
3-1
75% wins
Against the spread
3-1
75% covers · avg +11 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@
UNLV
UNLVW 86-81
+21.5
12
@
BRAD
BRADW 78-67
+26.5
18
@
FSU
FSUL 73-87
+5.5
22
vs
PV
PVW 69-68
−9.5
covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +11 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@UNLV
UNLVW 86-81
+20.5
12
@BRAD
BRADW 78-67
+0.5
18
@FSU
FSUL 73-87
−5.5
22
vsPV
PVW 69-68
−18.5
over 2under 2avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Southern Miss
4 games played
Straight up
1-3
25% wins
Against the spread
1-3
25% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-1
75% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
BUF
BUFL 79-85
−2.5
9
@
SC
SCL 79-83
+13.5
13
@
GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−2.5
22
vs
UNF
UNFW 92-83
−0.5
covered 1didn’t cover 3avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@BUF
BUFL 79-85
+10.5
9
@SC
SCL 79-83
+14.5
13
@GRAM
GRAML 70-75
−3.5
22
vsUNF
UNFW 92-83
+20.5
over 3under 1avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UT Martin
3-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Prairie View69–68
- L@ Florida St73–87
- W@ Bradley78–67
- W@ UNLV86–81
1 day since their last game.
Southern Miss
1-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Sun Belt Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Florida92–83
- L@ Grambling70–75
- L@ South Carolina79–83
- L@ Buffalo79–85
1 day since their last game.