Iona Gaels vs Oregon State Beavers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 5:30 PM ETUVI Sports & Fitness Center · Neutral site

#233IONAIona91▲ winner

Final

#99ORSTOregon St84final

Closing lineORST -3.5✓ IONA covered by 10.5

Closing total157.5Over by 17.5

Season records: Iona and Oregon St
IONA	This season	ORST
4-1	Record	3-2
3-2	ATS	1-4
3-2	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: IONA 75–81 ORST · ✗ ORST (72%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	2OT	T
IONA	30	40	9	12	91
ORST	34	36	9	5	84

1st half: IONA 30, ORST 34 (ORST by 4). The model had ORST by 3.8 and a total of 73.0 (actual 64).

Team stats

IONA		ORST
30-78 38%	Field goals	28-65 43%
13-37 35%	3-pointers	7-23 30%
18-22 82%	Free throws	21-36 58%
49 16 off	Rebounds	43 12 off
12	Assists	20
12	Steals	9
3	Blocks	9
13	Turnovers	15
27	Fouls	20
30	Points in paint	42
17	Fast-break points	11

Players

IONA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
CJ Anthony G	43	22	5	4	5-16	2-7
Lamin Sabally F	42	12	8	5	5-10	0-1
Denver Anglin G	34	16	2	2	6-12	2-7
Keshawn Williams G	30	6	3	1	2-6	1-3
Alliou Fall F	30	6	7	0	3-9	0-0
Bench
Toby Harris F	28	16	4	0	5-12	5-12
Luke Jungers F	16	11	3	0	3-5	3-5
Matt Reed F	10	0	3	0	0-4	0-2
Khalil Badru G	10	2	4	0	1-3	0-0
Chase Cormier G	7	0	1	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Connor Horan, Deondrea Lindsey, Oscar Hourruitiner Jr., Marko Pandiloski, Ore Odutayo, Kosy Akametu

ORST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Isaiah Sy G	40	18	5	3	5-11	2-4
Noah Amenhauser C	37	20	10	1	8-11	0-0
Johan Munch F	35	12	8	5	4-7	0-1
Josiah Lake II G	35	8	3	4	2-6	1-2
Dez White G	29	5	3	2	2-9	1-5
Bench
Matija Samar G	33	3	6	4	1-4	0-2
Malcolm Christie G	23	9	1	0	3-10	3-8
Olavi Suutela F	14	8	1	1	3-6	0-0
Jorge Diaz-Graham F	5	1	2	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Kaan Yarkut, Daisean Williford, Yaak Yaak, Stephen Olowoniyi, Gavin Marrs, Keziah Ekissi

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	ORST -3.5	ORST -6.6	ORST +3.1	L IONA covered
Total	157.5	155.8	Under 1.7	L Over
Projected score	—	IONA 74.6 · ORST 81.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	ORST -3.8	ORST -4.0
1H total	73.0	64
1H projected score	IONA 34.6 · ORST 38.4	IONA 30 · ORST 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
IONA WWLWL	3-2	60%	0-1	1-1
ORST LLLWL	1-4	20%	0-1	0-4

Venue/role: IONA neutral site, as underdog; ORST neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
IONA OOUOU	3-2	60%	4-1
ORST UOUOO	3-2	60%	3-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IONAlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
ORSTlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Iona

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +5.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +7.9 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsHOF	W 81-73	+1.5	W +9.5	144.5	O 154
Nov 11	@KC	W 105-91	-4.5	W +9.5	156.5	O 196
Nov 14	vsFOR	W 76-71	-5.5	L −0.5	157.5	U 147
Nov 18	vsPRIN	W 89-69	-2.5	W +17.5	154.5	O 158
Nov 21	vsAKR	L 75-96	+11.5	L −9.5	173.5	U 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

HOF

W 81-73

+9.5

W 105-91

+9.5

FOR

W 76-71

−0.5

PRIN

W 89-69

+17.5

AKR

L 75-96

−9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +5.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

HOF

W 81-73

+9.5

W 105-91

+39.5

FOR

W 76-71

−10.5

PRIN

W 89-69

+3.5

AKR

L 75-96

−2.5

over 3under 2avg +7.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Oregon St

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

L L L W L

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-260%

U O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsNDSU	W 67-65	-9.5	L −7.5	144.5	U 132
Nov 7	vsUIC	W 76-73	-6.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 149
Nov 12	vsUNT	W 66-64	-3.5	L −1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 17	@ORE	L 75-87	+13.5	W +1.5	141.5	O 162
Nov 21	vsEVAN	L 69-73	-6.5	L −10.5	136.5	O 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−7.5

UIC

W 76-73

−3.5

UNT

W 66-64

−1.5

ORE

L 75-87

+1.5

EVAN

L 69-73

−10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NDSU

W 67-65

−12.5

UIC

W 76-73

+2.5

UNT

W 66-64

−4.5

ORE

L 75-87

+20.5

EVAN

L 69-73

+5.5

over 3under 2avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Iona vs Oregon St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Iona

Oregon St

Iona

Oregon St