Saint Francis Red Wolves vs Belmont Bruins: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 1:30 PM ETAlico Arena · Neutral site

Final

#138BELBelmont94▲ winner

Closing lineBEL -21.5✓ BEL covered by 15.5

Closing total157.5Under by 6.5

Season records: Saint Francis Red Wolves and Belmont
SFPA	This season	BEL
0-4	Record	4-0
0-4	ATS	2-2
2-2	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SFPA 68–86 BEL · ✓ BEL (94%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SFPA	28	29	57
BEL	36	58	94

1st half: SFPA 28, BEL 36 (BEL by 8). The model had BEL by 10.8 and a total of 72.3 (actual 64).

Team stats

SFPA		BEL
20-59 34%	Field goals	34-58 59%
6-30 20%	3-pointers	15-30 50%
11-15 73%	Free throws	11-14 79%
30 11 off	Rebounds	36 6 off
8	Assists	26
7	Steals	9
1	Blocks	6
17	Turnovers	13
16	Fouls	18
24	Points in paint	38
10	Fast-break points	14

Players

SFPA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Skylar Wicks G	36	16	7	1	5-14	0-7
Ahmad Harrison G	31	17	2	1	7-13	3-3
Zion Russell G	26	6	2	0	1-9	0-5
Victor Payne Jr. G	21	3	5	1	1-5	1-4
Gestin Liberis F	20	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Bench
Cameron Tweedy F	20	2	4	1	1-1	0-0
Ralph Martino Jr. G	20	7	3	3	3-4	0-1
Brandon Russell G	19	6	1	1	2-7	2-5
KJ Swain Jr. G	6	0	0	0	0-3	0-3
Trey Weiand G	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Brandon Rabish, Melvin Weaver III, Kam Wylie, Kofi Asare, Paris Papadatos, Carson Rhodes, Ryen Gresko, Chris Moncrief

BEL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Tyler Lundblade G	27	18	3	1	6-13	5-11
Brigham Rogers F	27	12	5	3	6-6	0-0
Sam Orme F	23	15	3	4	6-8	3-4
Jabez Jenkins G	21	0	3	0	0-4	0-2
Nic McClain G	19	6	4	9	3-5	0-1
Bench
Eoin Dillon F	19	5	2	3	1-5	1-4
Isaiah West G	14	4	1	0	1-3	0-1
Win Miller G	12	9	3	2	1-3	1-2
Jack Smiley G	12	17	1	1	7-7	3-3
Cooper Haynes G	11	3	1	1	1-1	1-1
Jake Dykstra G	6	0	2	1	0-0	0-0
Keith Robbins G	5	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Graydon Lemke F	4	3	2	1	1-2	1-1

Did not play: Drew Scharnowski, Aidan Noyes

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BEL -21.5	BEL -18.1	SFPA +3.4	L BEL covered
Total	157.5	154.4	Under 3.1	W Under
Projected score	—	SFPA 68.1 · BEL 86.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BEL -10.8	BEL -8.0
1H total	72.3	64
1H projected score	SFPA 30.8 · BEL 41.5	SFPA 28 · BEL 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SFPA LLLL	0-4	0%	—	0-4
BEL WLWL	2-2	50%	—	2-2

Venue/role: SFPA neutral site, as underdog; BEL neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SFPA OOUU	2-2	50%	0-4
BEL UOUU	1-3	25%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SFPAlast 4	0-4 0%	0-4 0%	2-2 50%
BELlast 4	4-0 100%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Saint Francis Red Wolves

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +3 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@OU	L 66-102	+31.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 168
Nov 6	@TCU	L 63-104	+27.5	L −13.5	153.5	O 167
Nov 11	vsMSM	L 66-74	+6.5	L −1.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 18	@LEH	L 62-79	+10.5	L −6.5	151.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 66-102

−4.5

TCU

L 63-104

−13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−1.5

LEH

L 62-79

−6.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 66-102

+18.5

TCU

L 63-104

+13.5

MSM

L 66-74

−9.5

LEH

L 62-79

−10.5

over 2under 2avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Belmont

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −9.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAF	W 79-63	-15.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsTNST	W 87-79	-13.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 15	@ORU	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 143
Nov 19	vsLIP	W 75-68	-12.5	L −5.5	158.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 79-63

+0.5

TNST

W 87-79

−5.5

ORU

W 83-60

+15.5

LIP

W 75-68

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 79-63

−2.5

TNST

W 87-79

+7.5

ORU

W 83-60

−28.5

LIP

W 75-68

−15.5

over 1under 3avg −9.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Saint Francis Red Wolves vs Belmont

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Saint Francis Red Wolves

Belmont

Saint Francis Red Wolves

Belmont