South Dakota State Jackrabbits vs UC Irvine Anteaters: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 8:30 PM ETHard Rock Hotel Riviera Maya · Neutral site

Final

#149UCIUC Irvine64▲ winner

Closing lineUCI -2.5✓ UCI covered by 9.5

Closing total144.5Under by 28.5

Season records: S Dakota St and UC Irvine
SDST	This season	UCI
2-3	Record	1-4
4-1	ATS	0-5
2-3	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SDST 72–72 UCI · ✗ UCI (50%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SDST	22	30	52
UCI	29	35	64

1st half: SDST 22, UCI 29 (UCI by 7). The model had SDST by 0.1 and a total of 67.7 (actual 51).

Team stats

SDST		UCI
19-60 32%	Field goals	19-49 39%
4-23 17%	3-pointers	5-21 24%
10-17 59%	Free throws	21-28 75%
33 9 off	Rebounds	42 8 off
8	Assists	9
9	Steals	9
1	Blocks	6
15	Turnovers	20
20	Fouls	16
30	Points in paint	28
14	Fast-break points	5

Players

SDST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joe Sayler G	31	8	1	1	3-9	2-4
Kalen Garry G	30	4	5	1	1-6	0-2
Matthew Mors F	25	5	3	0	2-9	1-6
Jaden Jackson G	25	8	6	1	3-12	0-4
Alec Squires C	22	4	3	2	2-5	0-0
Bench
Luke Haertle G	22	6	7	0	2-6	0-1
Damon Wilkinson F	18	5	4	0	2-4	0-0
Trey Buchanan G	16	12	0	2	4-8	1-5
Caleb Delzell F	11	0	3	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Davis Kern, Jaden Rogers, Jadyn Cascio Jensen, Andrell Burton Jr., Bubz Alvarez

UCI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Derin Saran G	34	6	6	3	3-11	0-5
Jurian Dixon G	31	13	4	2	4-12	1-4
Tama Isaac G	28	10	4	1	1-3	1-3
Kyle Evans F	27	10	10	2	3-4	0-1
Elijah Chol F	19	10	7	0	3-6	0-1
Bench
Andre Henry G	20	11	2	0	4-10	3-7
Harrison Carrington F	16	4	4	0	1-3	0-0
Jovan Jester Jr. G	12	0	3	1	0-0	0-0
Nes Emeneke C	9	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Akiva McBirney-Griffin F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Ben Egbo G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Tishan Ahir, Mason Hodges, Luke Isaak, Josh Palmer, Langston Redfield, Bryce Goldman, Torian Lee

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UCI -2.5	UCI -0.1	SDST +2.4	L UCI covered
Total	144.5	144.4	Under 0.1	W Under
Projected score	—	SDST 72.2 · UCI 72.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDST -0.1	UCI -7.0
1H total	67.7	51
1H projected score	SDST 33.9 · UCI 33.8	SDST 22 · UCI 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SDST WWWWL	4-1	80%	1-1	2-1
UCI LLLLL	0-5	0%	0-1	0-4

Venue/role: SDST neutral site, as underdog; UCI neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDST UUOOU	2-3	40%	2-3
UCI UUOOU	2-3	40%	1-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSTlast 5	2-3 40%	4-1 80%	2-3 40%
UCIlast 5	1-4 20%	0-5 0%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

S Dakota St

5 games played

Straight up

2-3

40% wins

Against the spread

4-1

80% covers · avg +4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −5.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-340%

W L L W L

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRMK	W 75-66	-6.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 9	@UNI	L 58-65	+10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 12	@ORE	L 69-83	+16.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 21	vsGAST	W 105-58	-12.5	W +34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsUVU	L 52-75	+1.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

+2.5

UNI

L 58-65

+3.5

ORE

L 69-83

+2.5

GAST

W 105-58

+34.5

UVU

L 52-75

−21.5

covered 4didn’t cover 1avg +4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

−2.5

UNI

L 58-65

−27.5

ORE

L 69-83

+6.5

GAST

W 105-58

+19.5

UVU

L 52-75

−24.5

over 2under 3avg −5.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

UC Irvine

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

0-5

0% covers · avg −8.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −11.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-340%

U U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCBU	L 61-69	-8.5	L −16.5	147.5	U 130
Nov 15	vsWEB	W 79-70	-11.5	L −2.5	151.5	U 149
Nov 19	@UVU	L 72-79	+2.5	L −4.5	149.5	O 151
Nov 22	vsUNI	L 69-70	-2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 139
Nov 25	vsNMSU	L 45-57	-2.5	L −14.5	139.5	U 102

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−16.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

−4.5

UNI

L 69-70

−3.5

NMSU

L 45-57

−14.5

covered 0didn’t cover 5avg −8.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CBU

L 61-69

−17.5

WEB

W 79-70

−2.5

UVU

L 72-79

+1.5

UNI

L 69-70

+0.5

NMSU

L 45-57

−37.5

over 2under 3avg −11.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

S Dakota St vs UC Irvine

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

S Dakota St

UC Irvine

S Dakota St

UC Irvine