Maine Black Bears at American University Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Fri, Nov 28, 4:00 PM ETBender Arena · at American

#323MEMaine61final

Final

#153AMERAmerican74▲ winner

Closing lineAMER -7.5✓ AMER covered by 5.5

Closing total133.5Over by 1.5

Season records: Maine and American
ME	This season	AMER
0-6	Record	1-3
2-4	ATS	3-1
2-4	O/U	4-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ME 66–72 AMER · ✓ AMER (71%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ME	28	33	61
AMER	39	35	74

1st half: ME 28, AMER 39 (AMER by 11). The model had AMER by 3.6 and a total of 64.3 (actual 67).

Team stats

ME		AMER
21-42 50%	Field goals	24-53 45%
4-13 31%	3-pointers	10-26 38%
15-29 52%	Free throws	16-24 67%
32 7 off	Rebounds	28 6 off
8	Assists	11
3	Steals	10
4	Blocks	0
18	Turnovers	8
19	Fouls	24
32	Points in paint	26
2	Fast-break points	20

Players

ME	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Biel F	33	15	5	0	5-14	2-5
Mekhi Gray G	25	5	4	1	1-1	0-0
Keelan Steele F	25	10	5	0	3-5	0-0
Bashir N'Galang G	24	11	4	4	4-8	0-1
Ryan Mabrey G	23	3	0	0	1-4	1-4
Bench
Ace Flagg F	22	4	7	0	1-2	0-1
Yanis Bamba F	20	6	2	1	3-4	0-1
Caleb Crawford G	15	7	0	1	3-3	1-1
Isaac Bonilla G	10	0	1	1	0-1	0-0
Logan Carey G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Joshua Ojuri, John Shea, Killian Gribben, Emmitt Byther, Amare Allen, Darius Lopes

AMER	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Greg Jones F	33	12	4	0	3-7	1-1
Geoff Sprouse G	30	9	2	1	3-9	3-7
Matt Mayock F	29	8	5	0	3-5	0-1
Wyatt Nausadis G	24	13	0	3	4-9	2-6
Julen Iturbe F	20	0	4	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Kade Sebastian G	21	15	0	1	4-6	2-4
Chris Eagan F	19	7	1	1	3-5	0-0
Madden Collins G	19	7	7	5	3-9	1-5
Dean Hogans G	5	3	0	0	1-2	1-1

Did not play: Luke Brown, Adrian Samuels, Carson McDonald, Matthew Casey, Jack Anderson, Noah Jones, Eric Michaels, Shane O'Reilly, Gibraltar Coleman, Kamran Prince

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	AMER -7.5	AMER -6.3	ME +1.2	L AMER covered
Total	133.5	137.3	Over 3.8	W Over
Projected score	—	ME 65.5 · AMER 71.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	AMER -3.6	AMER -11.0
1H total	64.3	67
1H projected score	ME 30.4 · AMER 34	ME 28 · AMER 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ME LWLLL	2-4	33%	2-2	2-4
AMER WWLW	3-1	75%	1-0	—

Venue/role: ME away, as underdog; AMER home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ME UOUOU	2-4	33%	0-6
AMER OOOO	4-0	100%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MElast 6	0-6 0%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%
AMERlast 4	1-3 25%	3-1 75%	4-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Maine

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −1.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −7 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@GW	L 47-67	+20.5	W +0.5	143.5	U 114
Nov 8	@STBK	L 60-71	+3.5	L −7.5	131.5	U 131
Nov 10	@RUTG	L 60-72	+18.5	W +6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 16	vsQUIN	L 64-70	+3.5	L −2.5	137.5	U 134
Nov 19	@MRMK	L 65-72	+6.5	L −0.5	130.5	O 137
Nov 23	vsBRWN	L 53-58	+1.5	L −3.5	127.5	U 111

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L 47-67

+0.5

STBK

L 60-71

−7.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+6.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−2.5

MRMK

L 65-72

−0.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −1.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L 47-67

−29.5

STBK

L 60-71

−0.5

RUTG

L 60-72

+1.5

QUIN

L 64-70

−3.5

MRMK

L 65-72

+6.5

BRWN

L 53-58

−16.5

over 2under 4avg −7 ptslonger = bigger margin

American

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-0

100% overs · avg +15 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-0100%

O O O O

4 straight overs4 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@WAKE	L 74-88	+19.5	W +5.5	139.5	O 162
Nov 9	vsPENN	W 84-78	+1.5	W +7.5	154.5	O 162
Nov 12	@GW	L 67-107	+17.5	L −22.5	151.5	O 174
Nov 18	@RUTG	L 71-80	+16.5	W +7.5	143.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+5.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

−22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WAKE

L 74-88

+22.5

PENN

W 84-78

+7.5

L 67-107

+22.5

RUTG

L 71-80

+7.5

over 4under 0avg +15 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Maine @ American

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Maine

American

Maine

American