Pensacola Bay Center · Neutral site
Closing line
UTM -10.5✓ PV covered by 9.5
UTM -10.5✓ PV covered by 9.5Closing total155.5Under by 18.5
| UTM | This season | PV |
|---|---|---|
| 2-1 | Record | 0-3 |
| 3-0 | ATS | 2-1 |
| 2-1 | O/U | 1-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: UTM 82–73 PV · ✓ UTM (80%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTM | 28 | 41 | 69 |
| PV | 39 | 29 | 68 |
1st half: UTM 28, PV 39 (PV by 11). The model had UTM by 5.9 and a total of 72.4 (actual 67).
Team stats
| UTM | PV | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-47 47% | Field goals | 20-56 36% |
| 4-18 22% | 3-pointers | 4-16 25% |
| 21-30 70% | Free throws | 24-31 77% |
| 39 9 off | Rebounds | 34 11 off |
| 14 | Assists | 6 |
| 7 | Steals | 8 |
| 3 | Blocks | 4 |
| 16 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 21 | Fouls | 22 |
| 36 | Points in paint | 24 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 12 |
Players
| UTM | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matas Deniusas F | 36 | 20 | 7 | 1 | 6-15 | 0-4 |
| Andrija Bukumirovic F | 32 | 14 | 12 | 0 | 7-10 | 0-1 |
| Dragos Lungu G | 31 | 11 | 4 | 9 | 4-5 | 0-0 |
| Filip Petkovski G | 28 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Afan Trnka G | 26 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1-4 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Pedro Santos G | 21 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Luca Colceag F | 14 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0-3 | 0-3 |
| AJ Hopkins F | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Lamine Niang C | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Ty Price G | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Vladimir Khryapa, Ama Sow, Charlie King, Damien King, James Bass, Enrique Moya, Will Hopkins, Filip Radakovic, Lucas Williams
| PV | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tai'Reon Joseph G | 36 | 22 | 3 | 0 | 6-22 | 2-9 |
| Lance Williams G | 36 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Dontae Horne G | 36 | 11 | 5 | 3 | 4-9 | 1-3 |
| Cory Wells F | 34 | 22 | 8 | 0 | 5-13 | 1-4 |
| Keeshawn Mason F | 5 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Marcel Bryant F | 21 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Jannoy Thomas G | 16 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 3-4 | 0-0 |
| Corey Dunning F | 16 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Ryan Bolton Jr., Elijah Mitchell, Isaiah Foster, Seryee Lewis, Hassane Diallo, Doug Young, Joey Madimba
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Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenUTM -8.5
2 → UTM
CloseUTM -10.5
2 pts toward UTM
Total
Open156.5
▼ 1
Close155.5
Down 1 since the open
Moneyline
UTM -650 · PV +425
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened UTM -8.5 · closed UTM -10.5 · moved 2 toward UTMmodel UTM -9.5
model UTM -9.5
Opened 156.5 · closed 155.5 · moved 1 downmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Model vs market
| Market | Model | Model edge | Result | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | UTM -10.5 | UTM -9.5 | PV +1.0 | W PV covered |
| Total | 155.5 | 154.5 | Under 1.0 | W Under |
| Projected score | — | UTM 82 · PV 72.5 |
1st-half model
| Model | Actual | |
|---|---|---|
| 1H spread | UTM -5.9 | PV -11.0 |
| 1H total | 72.4 | 67 |
| 1H projected score | UTM 39.2 · PV 33.2 | UTM 28 · PV 39 |
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| UTMlast 3 | 2-1 67% | 3-0 100% | 2-1 67% |
| PVlast 3 | 0-3 0% | 2-1 67% | 1-2 33% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
UTM 1–1 PVSeries tied · 2 games since 2021-22 · UTM 0-2 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 19, 2023-24 | UTM 66 vs PV 78 | PV +6.5 | PV W |
| Nov 20, 2022-23 | PV 79 @ UTM 80 | UTM -4 | PV W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
UT Martin
3 games played
Straight up
2-1
67% wins
Against the spread
3-0
100% covers · avg +17.8 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-1
67% overs · avg +5.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
@
UNLV
UNLVW 86-81
+21.5
12
@
BRAD
BRADW 78-67
+26.5
18
@
FSU
FSUL 73-87
+5.5
covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +17.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
@UNLV
UNLVW 86-81
+20.5
12
@BRAD
BRADW 78-67
+0.5
18
@FSU
FSUL 73-87
−5.5
over 2under 1avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Prairie View
3 games played
Straight up
0-3
0% wins
Against the spread
2-1
67% covers · avg −0.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-2
33% overs · avg +0.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
8
@
WICH
WICHL 62-105
−22.5
12
@
OKST
OKSTL 67-94
+3.5
17
@
MIZ
MIZL 73-91
+17.5
covered 2didn’t cover 1avg −0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
8
@WICH
WICHL 62-105
+10.5
12
@OKST
OKSTL 67-94
−7.5
17
@MIZ
MIZL 73-91
−2.5
over 1under 2avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
UT Martin
2-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Ohio Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Florida St73–87
- W@ Bradley78–67
- W@ UNLV86–81
4 days since their last game.
Prairie View
0-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southwestern Athletic Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Missouri73–91
- L@ Oklahoma St67–94
- L@ Wichita St62–105
5 days since their last game.