Prairie View A&M Panthers at North Texas Mean Green: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 30, 4:00 PM ETThe Super Pit · at North Texas

Final

#112UNTNorth Texas72▲ winner

Closing lineUNT -16.5✓ PV covered by 13.5

Closing total141.5Under by 0.5

Season records: Prairie View and North Texas
PV	This season	UNT
1-4	Record	4-2
3-2	ATS	4-2
2-3	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: PV 62–79 UNT · ✓ UNT (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
PV	36	33	69
UNT	30	42	72

1st half: PV 36, UNT 30 (PV by 6). The model had UNT by 10.3 and a total of 66.1 (actual 66).

Team stats

PV		UNT
24-54 44%	Field goals	24-50 48%
3-12 25%	3-pointers	6-16 38%
18-22 82%	Free throws	18-26 69%
25 6 off	Rebounds	37 10 off
7	Assists	18
9	Steals	8
4	Blocks	5
11	Turnovers	19
21	Fouls	18
36	Points in paint	34
15	Fast-break points	17

Players

PV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cory Wells F	40	13	4	2	3-12	1-3
Tai'Reon Joseph G	39	19	4	0	8-18	1-5
Lance Williams G	30	8	1	2	3-6	0-1
Keeshawn Mason F	23	6	1	0	2-4	1-1
Dontae Horne G	23	6	1	3	2-6	0-1
Bench
Jannoy Thomas G	25	13	7	0	4-4	0-0
Corey Dunning F	14	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Marcel Bryant F	6	4	3	0	2-4	0-1

Did not play: Elijah Mitchell, Isaiah Foster, Seryee Lewis, Hassane Diallo, Doug Young, Ryan Bolton Jr., Joey Madimba

UNT	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
David Terrell Jr. G	36	15	5	9	4-10	1-1
Je'Shawn Stevenson G	32	23	5	5	5-15	4-10
Dylan Arnett F	30	6	13	1	3-5	0-0
Reece Robinson F	25	12	2	1	6-9	0-1
Demarion Watson G	22	2	2	0	0-2	0-2
Bench
Cole Franklin G	19	0	2	2	0-0	0-0
Buddy Hammer Jr. F	11	4	3	0	1-2	1-2
Josiah Shackleford F	10	10	2	0	5-5	0-0
Curtis Stinson Jr. G	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
EJ Horton G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Cahmai Crosby G	5	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Will McClendon

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNT -16.5	UNT -17.4	UNT +0.9	L PV covered
Total	141.5	141.1	Under 0.4	W Under
Projected score	—	PV 61.9 · UNT 79.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNT -10.3	PV -6.0
1H total	66.1	66
1H projected score	PV 27.9 · UNT 38.2	PV 36 · UNT 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PV LWWWL	3-2	60%	2-1	3-1
UNT WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: PV away, as underdog; UNT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
PV OUUUO	2-3	40%	1-4
UNT UUOUO	2-4	33%	4-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PVlast 5	1-4 20%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%
UNTlast 6	4-2 67%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Prairie View

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −2.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

L W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

O U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 8	@WICH	L 62-105	+20.5	L −22.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 12	@OKST	L 67-94	+30.5	W +3.5	168.5	U 161
Nov 17	@MIZ	L 73-91	+35.5	W +17.5	166.5	U 164
Nov 22	vsUTM	L 68-69	+10.5	W +9.5	155.5	U 137
Nov 23	vsUNF	W 85-82	-3.5	L −0.5	160.5	O 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WICH

L 62-105

−22.5

OKST

L 67-94

+3.5

MIZ

L 73-91

+17.5

UTM

L 68-69

+9.5

UNF

W 85-82

−0.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WICH

L 62-105

+10.5

OKST

L 67-94

−7.5

MIZ

L 73-91

−2.5

UTM

L 68-69

−18.5

UNF

W 85-82

+6.5

over 2under 3avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

North Texas

6 games played

Straight up

4-2

67% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +0.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −2.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-267%

W W L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W W W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-433%

U U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 6	vsNWST	W 80-53	-11.5	W +15.5	137.5	U 133
Nov 9	vsLUC	W 64-62	+1.5	W +3.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 12	@ORST	L 64-66	+3.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 14	@SMC	L 49-80	+14.5	L −16.5	128.5	O 129
Nov 20	vsCARK	W 74-56	-16.5	W +1.5	134.5	U 130
Nov 25	vsEWU	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

+15.5

LUC

W 64-62

+3.5

ORST

L 64-66

+1.5

SMC

L 49-80

−16.5

CARK

W 74-56

+1.5

EWU

W 79-71

−4.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NWST

W 80-53

−4.5

LUC

W 64-62

−12.5

ORST

L 64-66

−4.5

SMC

L 49-80

+0.5

CARK

W 74-56

−4.5

EWU

W 79-71

+8.5

over 2under 4avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Prairie View @ North Texas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Prairie View

North Texas

Prairie View

North Texas