South Carolina Gamecocks vs Northwestern Wildcats: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 5:00 PM ETColonial Hall · Neutral site

Final

Closing lineNU -4.5✓ SC covered by 2.5

Closing total146.5Over by 9.5

Season records: South Carolina and Northwestern
SC	This season	NU
4-1	Record	4-1
2-3	ATS	2-3
4-1	O/U	3-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SC 71–76 NU · ✓ NU (67%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SC	34	43	77
NU	36	43	79

1st half: SC 34, NU 36 (NU by 2). The model had NU by 2.8 and a total of 69.2 (actual 70).

Team stats

SC		NU
28-61 46%	Field goals	30-53 57%
10-34 29%	3-pointers	7-14 50%
11-15 73%	Free throws	12-14 86%
31 13 off	Rebounds	26 5 off
17	Assists	21
7	Steals	5
1	Blocks	3
8	Turnovers	10
14	Fouls	15
32	Points in paint	44
9	Fast-break points	20

Players

SC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Meechie Johnson G	35	15	3	5	6-17	3-11
Kobe Knox G	32	9	3	4	4-9	1-4
Mike Sharavjamts G	32	12	8	3	2-5	1-4
Jordan Butler F	23	4	6	0	2-4	0-2
Hayden Assemian F	18	6	2	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Eli Ellis G	23	4	0	1	2-5	0-2
Elijah Strong F	20	16	5	4	5-8	3-5
Grant Polk G	12	8	1	0	3-6	2-5
Nordin Kapic F	3	1	0	0	0-2	0-1
Christ Essandoko F	2	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Abu Yarmah, Myles Stute, Cam Scott, Eli Sparkman, EJ Walker

NU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nick Martinelli F	35	25	7	2	8-17	2-3
Jayden Reid G	31	8	1	9	3-5	0-0
Angelo Ciaravino G	30	6	4	0	3-6	0-1
Tre Singleton F	29	8	5	1	3-4	1-1
Arrinten Page F	29	10	3	6	5-9	0-1
Bench
K.J. Windham G	13	3	0	0	1-4	1-4
Max Green G	11	13	1	1	5-6	3-4
Justin Mullins G	9	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Jake West G	9	2	0	2	0-0	0-0
Tyler Kropp F	4	2	0	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Phoenix Gill, Cade Bennerman, Jordan Clayton, Gus Hurlburt, Blake Smith

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NU -4.5	NU -4.9	NU +0.4	L SC covered
Total	146.5	147.7	Over 1.2	W Over
Projected score	—	SC 71.4 · NU 76.3

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NU -2.8	NU -2.0
1H total	69.2	70
1H projected score	SC 33.2 · NU 36	SC 34 · NU 36

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
SC LLWWL	2-3	40%	0-1	0-1
NU LWWLL	2-3	40%	0-1	2-2

Venue/role: SC neutral site, as underdog; NU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SC OOOUO	4-1	80%	4-1
NU UUOOO	3-2	60%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SClast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%
NUlast 5	4-1 80%	2-3 40%	3-2 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

South Carolina

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +6.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsNCAT	W 91-72	-22.5	L −3.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 9	vsUSM	W 83-79	-17.5	L −13.5	147.5	O 162
Nov 12	vsPRES	W 81-61	-16.5	W +3.5	137.5	O 142
Nov 18	vsRAD	W 87-58	-10.5	W +18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsBTLR	L 72-79	+3.5	L −3.5	150.5	O 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

−3.5

USM

W 83-79

−13.5

PRES

W 81-61

+3.5

RAD

W 87-58

+18.5

BTLR

L 72-79

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

NCAT

W 91-72

+19.5

USM

W 83-79

+14.5

PRES

W 81-61

+4.5

RAD

W 87-58

−8.5

BTLR

L 72-79

+0.5

over 4under 1avg +6.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Northwestern

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +3.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W W W L

3 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMERC	W 70-47	-26.5	L −3.5	140.5	U 117
Nov 7	vsBU	W 76-52	-17.5	W +6.5	136.5	U 128
Nov 10	vsCLE	W 110-63	-23.5	W +23.5	151.5	O 173
Nov 14	@DEP	W 81-79	-5.5	L −3.5	145.5	O 160
Nov 21	vsUVA	L 78-83	+4.5	L −0.5	149.5	O 161

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−3.5

W 76-52

+6.5

CLE

W 110-63

+23.5

DEP

W 81-79

−3.5

UVA

L 78-83

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MERC

W 70-47

−23.5

W 76-52

−8.5

CLE

W 110-63

+21.5

DEP

W 81-79

+14.5

UVA

L 78-83

+11.5

over 3under 2avg +3.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

South Carolina vs Northwestern

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

South Carolina

Northwestern

South Carolina

Northwestern