Oakland Golden Grizzlies vs Lamar Cardinals: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 4:00 PM ETDahlberg Arena · Neutral site

#204OAKOakland83▲ winner

Final

#293LAMLamar68final

Closing lineOAK -3.5✓ OAK covered by 11.5

Closing total148.5Over by 2.5

Season records: Oakland and Lamar
OAK	This season	LAM
0-5	Record	2-1
2-3	ATS	3-0
4-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: OAK 76–74 LAM · ✓ OAK (57%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
OAK	34	49	83
LAM	31	37	68

1st half: OAK 34, LAM 31 (OAK by 3). The model had OAK by 1.4 and a total of 70.0 (actual 65).

Team stats

OAK		LAM
29-56 52%	Field goals	25-63 40%
3-17 18%	3-pointers	7-25 28%
22-32 69%	Free throws	11-16 69%
36 11 off	Rebounds	39 16 off
15	Assists	19
10	Steals	2
3	Blocks	6
11	Turnovers	16
16	Fouls	23
48	Points in paint	30
24	Fast-break points	6

Players

OAK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Brody Robinson G	36	12	3	10	3-8	0-5
Tuburu Naivalurua F	35	21	4	1	7-12	1-2
Michael Houge F	32	16	8	1	7-11	0-0
Isaac Garrett F	31	16	6	2	7-10	0-1
Nassim Mashhour G	25	5	3	0	1-6	1-5
Bench
Ziare Wells G	13	2	2	1	0-2	0-1
Khoi Thurmon G	10	4	1	0	2-2	0-0
Brett White II G	10	3	2	0	1-3	1-3
Warren Marshall IV G	8	4	0	0	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Hamoudy Mashhour, Donny Yeager, William Kassi, MJ Yeager, Nate Deer

LAM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Andrew Holifield F	37	15	9	2	5-13	2-6
Cody Pennebaker G	31	4	3	5	2-5	0-1
Rob Lee Jr. G	26	13	1	2	5-12	2-7
Errol White F	17	11	7	2	5-6	0-0
Braden East F	11	5	2	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
Jayden Gambrell G	21	9	3	1	3-8	3-6
King-Njhsanni Wilhite G	20	7	2	2	2-11	0-4
Eian Lowe G	12	2	2	2	0-1	0-0
Janko Bulajic C	11	0	2	2	0-1	0-0
Spencer Ezewiro F	8	2	3	1	1-1	0-0
Jayden Barrs G	6	0	1	0	0-3	0-1

Did not play: Christian Thomas, Izuchukwu Emelife, Quinton Sanders, B.B. Knight

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OAK -3.5	OAK -2.0	LAM +1.5	L OAK covered
Total	148.5	149.4	Over 0.9	W Over
Projected score	—	OAK 75.7 · LAM 73.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OAK -1.4	OAK -3.0
1H total	70.0	65
1H projected score	OAK 35.7 · LAM 34.3	OAK 34 · LAM 31

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
OAK LWLWL	2-3	40%	—	0-1
LAM WWW	3-0	100%	—	2-0

Venue/role: OAK neutral site, as favorite; LAM neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
OAK OOUOO	4-1	80%	0-5
LAM UOU	1-2	33%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
OAKlast 5	0-5 0%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%
LAMlast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Oakland

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +0.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +14.7 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

O O U O O

2 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@MICH	L 78-121	+24.5	L −18.5	156.5	O 199
Nov 7	@PUR	L 77-87	+31.5	W +21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 12	@HOU	L 45-78	+30.5	L −2.5	138.5	U 123
Nov 17	@UCF	L 83-87	+13.5	W +9.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 21	@EMU	L 91-97	-1.5	L −7.5	153.5	O 188

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

−18.5

PUR

L 77-87

+21.5

HOU

L 45-78

−2.5

UCF

L 83-87

+9.5

EMU

L 91-97

−7.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +0.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MICH

L 78-121

+42.5

PUR

L 77-87

+5.5

HOU

L 45-78

−15.5

UCF

L 83-87

+6.5

EMU

L 91-97

+34.5

over 4under 1avg +14.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lamar

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

L W W

2 straight wins2 of 3 won

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 10	@TCU	L 65-78	+18.5	W +5.5	147.5	U 143
Nov 17	@ULM	W 79-66	-11.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 145
Nov 23	@MONT	W 68-63	+4.5	W +9.5	148.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TCU

L 65-78

+5.5

ULM

W 79-66

+1.5

MONT

W 68-63

+9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TCU

L 65-78

−4.5

ULM

W 79-66

+4.5

MONT

W 68-63

−17.5

over 1under 2avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Oakland vs Lamar

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Oakland

Lamar

Oakland

Lamar