UT Martin Skyhawks at Florida State Seminoles: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 7:00 PM ETTucker Center · at Florida St

#341UTMUT Martin73final

Final

#81FSUFlorida St87▲ winner

Closing lineFSU -19.5✓ UTM covered by 5.5

Closing total165.5Under by 5.5

Season records: UT Martin and Florida St
UTM	This season	FSU
2-0	Record	2-1
2-0	ATS	3-0
2-0	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UTM 69–89 FSU · ✓ FSU (96%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UTM	40	33	73
FSU	43	44	87

1st half: UTM 40, FSU 43 (FSU by 3). The model had FSU by 12.3 and a total of 73.9 (actual 83).

Team stats

UTM		FSU
23-52 44%	Field goals	31-72 43%
11-27 41%	3-pointers	12-35 34%
16-21 76%	Free throws	13-23 57%
41 11 off	Rebounds	34 15 off
17	Assists	21
4	Steals	19
6	Blocks	4
26	Turnovers	6
21	Fouls	20
24	Points in paint	36
10	Fast-break points	19

Players

UTM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Andrija Bukumirovic F	38	22	12	0	7-14	3-8
Afan Trnka G	35	8	4	5	3-6	2-5
Dragos Lungu G	33	10	8	4	3-9	1-3
Filip Petkovski G	31	9	5	6	3-6	1-3
Matas Deniusas F	22	11	4	1	3-7	1-2
Bench
Luca Colceag F	15	7	2	0	2-4	2-3
Filip Radakovic G	9	1	1	1	0-0	0-0
AJ Hopkins F	8	3	2	0	1-2	1-2
Pedro Santos G	3	2	0	0	1-3	0-1
Ty Price G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Lamine Niang C	2	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Ama Sow F	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Charlie King, Vladimir Khryapa, Damien King, James Bass, Enrique Moya, Will Hopkins, Lucas Williams

FSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Kobe MaGee G	32	5	3	2	2-10	1-8
Martin Somerville G	31	6	2	5	2-4	2-4
Lajae Jones G	28	12	5	1	2-9	1-7
Robert McCray V G	25	16	1	7	5-15	4-8
Alex Steen F	22	13	7	2	6-9	0-0
Bench
Cam Miles G	23	17	2	3	7-10	3-6
AJ Swinton F	15	12	2	0	5-9	1-2
Thomas Bassong F	15	2	4	0	1-4	0-0
Alier Maluk F	9	4	4	1	1-2	0-0

Did not play: Xavier Osceola, Chauncey Wiggins, Max Garcia-Plata, Shah Muhammad, Jalen Crawford

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	FSU -19.5	FSU -20.6	FSU +1.1	L UTM covered
Total	165.5	157.7	Under 7.8	W Under
Projected score	—	UTM 68.6 · FSU 89.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	FSU -12.3	FSU -3.0
1H total	73.9	83
1H projected score	UTM 30.8 · FSU 43.1	UTM 40 · FSU 43

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UTM WW	2-0	100%	2-0	2-0
FSU WWW	3-0	100%	2-0	2-0

Venue/role: UTM away, as underdog; FSU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UTM OO	2-0	100%	2-0
FSU OUU	1-2	33%	2-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UTMlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	2-0 100%
FSUlast 3	2-1 67%	3-0 100%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UT Martin

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +24 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@UNLV	W 86-81	+16.5	W +21.5	146.5	O 167
Nov 12	@BRAD	W 78-67	+15.5	W +26.5	144.5	O 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNLV

W 86-81

+21.5

BRAD

W 78-67

+26.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +24 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNLV

W 86-81

+20.5

BRAD

W 78-67

+0.5

over 2under 0avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Florida St

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +10.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsALCN	W 108-76	-27.5	W +4.5	156.5	O 184
Nov 7	vsALST	W 101-64	-24.5	W +12.5	166.5	U 165
Nov 11	@FLA	L 76-78	+17.5	W +15.5	180.5	U 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

ALCN

W 108-76

+4.5

ALST

W 101-64

+12.5

FLA

L 76-78

+15.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +10.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

ALCN

W 108-76

+27.5

ALST

W 101-64

−1.5

FLA

L 76-78

−26.5

over 1under 2avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UT Martin @ Florida St

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UT Martin

Florida St

UT Martin

Florida St