South Dakota State Jackrabbits at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Dec 3, 8:00 PM ETJ. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · at N Arizona

#201SDSTS Dakota St75▲ winner

Final

#321NAUN Arizona62final

Closing lineSDST -2.5✓ SDST covered by 10.5

Closing total148.5Under by 11.5

Season records: S Dakota St and N Arizona
SDST	This season	NAU
2-4	Record	2-2
4-2	ATS	4-0
2-4	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SDST 75–72 NAU · ✓ SDST (59%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SDST	36	39	75
NAU	26	36	62

1st half: SDST 36, NAU 26 (SDST by 10). The model had SDST by 1.7 and a total of 69.0 (actual 62).

Team stats

SDST		NAU
24-57 42%	Field goals	22-54 41%
9-29 31%	3-pointers	7-24 29%
18-25 72%	Free throws	11-19 58%
41 12 off	Rebounds	33 7 off
14	Assists	14
10	Steals	7
1	Blocks	3
11	Turnovers	13
17	Fouls	22
28	Points in paint	22
14	Fast-break points	7

Players

SDST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Joe Sayler G	34	20	3	3	5-10	4-7
Kalen Garry G	32	11	5	3	4-11	3-8
Jaden Jackson G	29	8	9	3	2-8	2-7
Matthew Mors F	28	5	2	2	2-5	0-2
Alec Squires C	13	3	6	0	1-4	0-0
Bench
Damon Wilkinson F	26	13	5	2	4-6	0-0
Luke Haertle G	19	11	5	1	4-6	0-1
Caleb Delzell F	10	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Trey Buchanan G	7	2	1	0	1-5	0-4
Bubz Alvarez G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jadyn Cascio Jensen, Andrell Burton Jr., Jaden Rogers, Davis Kern

NAU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Abelman G	35	9	3	3	3-12	1-6
Kavon Bradford G	32	8	3	3	2-7	0-1
Isaiah Shaw F	25	7	2	0	3-7	1-5
Zack Davidson F	24	11	5	3	5-8	0-1
Arne Osojnik F	24	16	2	2	6-11	3-5
Bench
Karl Poom F	20	5	7	1	1-6	1-4
Traivar Jackson F	17	3	5	0	1-1	0-0
Chris Komin G	15	3	1	1	1-1	1-1
Brennan Peterson G	4	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Oakland Fort G	4	0	1	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: JT Amundsen, Walker Timme, Erez Poran, Diego Campisano

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SDST -2.5	SDST -2.6	SDST +0.1	W SDST covered
Total	148.5	147.4	Under 1.1	W Under
Projected score	—	SDST 75 · NAU 72.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SDST -1.7	SDST -10.0
1H total	69.0	62
1H projected score	SDST 35.4 · NAU 33.7	SDST 36 · NAU 26

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SDST WWWLL	4-2	67%	2-0	2-0
NAU WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	3-0

Venue/role: SDST away, as favorite; NAU home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SDST UOOUU	2-4	33%	2-4
NAU OUOU	2-2	50%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SDSTlast 6	2-4 33%	4-2 67%	2-4 33%
NAUlast 4	2-2 50%	4-0 100%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

S Dakota St

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

4-2

67% covers · avg +2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

W L L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-267%

W W W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

U U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsMRMK	W 75-66	-6.5	W +2.5	143.5	U 141
Nov 9	@UNI	L 58-65	+10.5	W +3.5	150.5	U 123
Nov 12	@ORE	L 69-83	+16.5	W +2.5	145.5	O 152
Nov 21	vsGAST	W 105-58	-12.5	W +34.5	143.5	O 163
Nov 25	vsUVU	L 52-75	+1.5	L −21.5	151.5	U 127
Nov 26	vsUCI	L 52-64	+2.5	L −9.5	144.5	U 116

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

+2.5

UNI

L 58-65

+3.5

ORE

L 69-83

+2.5

GAST

W 105-58

+34.5

UVU

L 52-75

−21.5

UCI

L 52-64

−9.5

covered 4didn’t cover 2avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

MRMK

W 75-66

−2.5

UNI

L 58-65

−27.5

ORE

L 69-83

+6.5

GAST

W 105-58

+19.5

UVU

L 52-75

−24.5

UCI

L 52-64

−28.5

over 2under 4avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Arizona

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

4-0

100% covers · avg +3.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDRKE	L 71-77	+8.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 11	@ARIZ	L 49-84	+35.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 24	vsCP	W 93-87	+1.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 180
Nov 26	vsSEMO	W 79-72	-2.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 151

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+2.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

+0.5

W 93-87

+7.5

SEMO

W 79-72

+4.5

covered 4didn’t cover 0avg +3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+3.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

−30.5

W 93-87

+15.5

SEMO

W 79-72

−2.5

over 2under 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

S Dakota St @ N Arizona

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

S Dakota St

N Arizona

S Dakota St

N Arizona