Southeast Missouri State Redhawks at Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 26, 8:00 PM ETJ. Lawrence Walkup Skydome · at N Arizona

Final

#321NAUN Arizona79▲ winner

Closing lineNAU -2.5✓ NAU covered by 4.5

Closing total153.5Under by 2.5

Season records: SE Missouri and N Arizona
SEMO	This season	NAU
1-4	Record	1-2
2-3	ATS	3-0
4-1	O/U	2-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: SEMO 76–76 NAU · ✓ NAU (52%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
SEMO	29	43	72
NAU	39	40	79

1st half: SEMO 29, NAU 39 (NAU by 10). The model had NAU by 0.1 and a total of 71.1 (actual 68).

Team stats

SEMO		NAU
30-68 44%	Field goals	28-53 53%
5-24 21%	3-pointers	5-13 38%
7-13 54%	Free throws	18-25 72%
33 12 off	Rebounds	37 7 off
14	Assists	12
5	Steals	6
5	Blocks	5
8	Turnovers	11
20	Fouls	15
48	Points in paint	38
7	Fast-break points	12

Players

SEMO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braxton Stacker G	32	15	2	0	6-13	3-8
Luke Almodovar G	31	9	2	0	4-10	1-5
BJ Ward G	27	7	2	7	2-14	0-6
Brendan Terry F	19	14	4	3	6-10	1-1
Landren Blocker G	11	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Bench
Marqueas Bell G	22	9	5	2	4-10	0-1
David Idada C	19	8	4	0	3-3	0-0
Troy Cole Jr. G	15	4	3	1	2-3	0-1
Blaize Sagna G	10	2	1	1	1-2	0-1
Elliot Lowndes F	8	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
PJ Farmer G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jay Reynolds, Saxton Hoepker, Trace Sadler

NAU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ryan Abelman G	36	20	4	2	7-13	4-7
Kavon Bradford G	30	12	4	4	4-10	0-1
Zack Davidson F	24	17	8	1	6-7	0-0
Isaiah Shaw F	23	6	4	0	0-3	0-1
Arne Osojnik F	16	5	3	0	2-6	1-1
Bench
Chris Komin G	24	0	0	0	0-2	0-0
Traivar Jackson F	18	14	5	2	7-7	0-0
Karl Poom F	18	5	3	3	2-5	0-3
Brennan Peterson G	9	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Oakland Fort G	2	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Diego Campisano, JT Amundsen, Erez Poran, Walker Timme

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NAU -2.5	NAU -0.5	SEMO +2.0	L NAU covered
Total	153.5	151.9	Under 1.6	W Under
Projected score	—	SEMO 75.7 · NAU 76.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NAU -0.1	NAU -10.0
1H total	71.1	68
1H projected score	SEMO 35.5 · NAU 35.6	SEMO 29 · NAU 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEMO LWLLW	2-3	40%	1-2	1-3
NAU WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	—

Venue/role: SEMO away, as underdog; NAU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEMO OOOOU	4-1	80%	1-4
NAU OUO	2-1	67%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEMOlast 5	1-4 20%	2-3 40%	4-1 80%
NAUlast 3	1-2 33%	3-0 100%	2-1 67%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

SE Missouri

5 games played

Straight up

1-4

20% wins

Against the spread

2-3

40% covers · avg +2.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-1

80% overs · avg +5.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-420%

L L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-340%

L W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-180%

O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SLU	L 67-92	+19.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 7	@MIZ	L 84-89	+25.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 173
Nov 15	vsSTMN	L 72-84	+2.5	L −9.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 18	@IOWA	L 70-99	+23.5	L −5.5	147.5	O 169
Nov 25	vsCP	W 84-68	-1.5	W +14.5	170.5	U 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

−5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+20.5

STMN

L 72-84

−9.5

IOWA

L 70-99

−5.5

W 84-68

+14.5

covered 2didn’t cover 3avg +2.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

+5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+15.5

STMN

L 72-84

+3.5

IOWA

L 70-99

+21.5

W 84-68

−18.5

over 4under 1avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

N Arizona

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

3-0

100% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −3.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight covers3 of 3 covered

Over / Under

2-167%

O U O

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDRKE	L 71-77	+8.5	W +2.5	144.5	O 148
Nov 11	@ARIZ	L 49-84	+35.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 133
Nov 24	vsCP	W 93-87	+1.5	W +7.5	164.5	O 180

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+2.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

+0.5

W 93-87

+7.5

covered 3didn’t cover 0avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DRKE

L 71-77

+3.5

ARIZ

L 49-84

−30.5

W 93-87

+15.5

over 2under 1avg −3.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

SE Missouri @ N Arizona

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

SE Missouri

N Arizona

SE Missouri

N Arizona