Western Carolina Catamounts at Lipscomb Bisons: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 5:00 PM ETAllen Arena · at Lipscomb

Final

#214LIPLipscomb83▲ winner

Closing lineLIP -5.5✓ LIP covered by 15.5

Closing total151.5Under by 6.5

Season records: W Carolina and Lipscomb
WCU	This season	LIP
2-2	Record	0-4
1-3	ATS	2-2
2-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: WCU 73–77 LIP · ✓ LIP (63%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
WCU	23	39	62
LIP	34	49	83

1st half: WCU 23, LIP 34 (LIP by 11). The model had LIP by 2.2 and a total of 70.5 (actual 57).

Team stats

WCU		LIP
24-55 44%	Field goals	32-70 46%
5-28 18%	3-pointers	16-37 43%
9-15 60%	Free throws	3-6 50%
35 5 off	Rebounds	39 10 off
6	Assists	23
8	Steals	14
6	Blocks	2
18	Turnovers	11
7	Fouls	14
38	Points in paint	32
6	Fast-break points	17

Players

WCU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Julien Soumaoro G	27	15	3	3	6-13	2-9
Marcus Kell F	27	6	3	0	2-11	1-6
Tidjiane Dioumassi G	25	4	1	1	2-4	0-1
Cord Stansberry G	25	10	3	1	3-6	0-3
Abdulai Fanta Kabba C	22	5	9	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
Tahlan Pettway G	18	12	0	0	5-7	2-4
Fischer Brown G	14	6	1	0	3-5	0-2
Justin Johnson F	13	2	2	0	0-3	0-1
Tayeshaun Smith F	11	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Vernon Collins Jr. F	10	0	5	1	0-1	0-1
Samuel Dada F	8	2	2	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: CJ Hyland, Max Williams, Drew Hollifield, Titian DeRosa, Chase McKey

LIP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Grant Asman F	23	22	2	1	9-13	4-8
Mateo Esmeraldo G	23	4	3	7	2-6	0-3
Charlie Williams C	23	6	1	1	3-7	0-1
Or Ashkenazi F	22	2	5	4	0-2	0-1
Ross Candelino G	21	12	5	2	4-11	4-8
Bench
Ethan Duncan G	20	18	5	1	6-11	6-10
Titas Sargiunas F	18	2	2	1	1-5	0-1
Cole Middleton F	17	6	5	4	3-7	0-2
Kennedy Okpara F	16	5	2	0	2-5	1-1
Kellan Boylan F	15	3	4	2	1-2	0-1
Luke Carter G	2	3	0	0	1-1	1-1

Did not play: Miles White, Luke Jack, Devyn Martin, Logan Suber, Josh Scott

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LIP -5.5	LIP -3.9	WCU +1.6	L LIP covered
Total	151.5	150.6	Under 0.9	W Under
Projected score	—	WCU 73.3 · LIP 77.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LIP -2.2	LIP -11.0
1H total	70.5	57
1H projected score	WCU 34.2 · LIP 36.4	WCU 23 · LIP 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WCU LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	1-2
LIP LLWW	2-2	50%	—	—

Venue/role: WCU away, as underdog; LIP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
WCU OUUO	2-2	50%	2-2
LIP OOUU	2-2	50%	0-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WCUlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%
LIPlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

W Carolina

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −1 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight wins2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CIN	L 63-94	+22.5	L −8.5	143.5	O 157
Nov 8	@DUKE	L 54-95	+36.5	L −4.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 16	vsSTET	W 76-65	-12.5	L −1.5	155.5	U 141
Nov 19	vsUNCA	W 80-73	+1.5	W +8.5	152.5	O 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CIN

L 63-94

−8.5

DUKE

L 54-95

−4.5

STET

W 76-65

−1.5

UNCA

W 80-73

+8.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CIN

L 63-94

+13.5

DUKE

L 54-95

−3.5

STET

W 76-65

−14.5

UNCA

W 80-73

+0.5

over 2under 2avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Lipscomb

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −5.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VAN	L 61-105	+26.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 9	@MER	L 77-92	+3.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 11	@UNCA	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 133
Nov 19	@BEL	L 68-75	+12.5	W +5.5	158.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

−17.5

MER

L 77-92

−11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

+1.5

BEL

L 68-75

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

+11.5

MER

L 77-92

+11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

−25.5

BEL

L 68-75

−15.5

over 2under 2avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

W Carolina @ Lipscomb

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

W Carolina

Lipscomb

W Carolina

Lipscomb