Moby Arena · at Colorado St
Closing line
CSU -18.5✓ CP covered by 4.5
CSU -18.5✓ CP covered by 4.5Closing total165.5Over by 6.5
 CP | This season | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | ATS | 2-0 |
| 0-2 | O/U | 2-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: CP 70–89 CSU · ✓ CSU (95%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CP | 37 | 42 | 79 |
| CSU | 47 | 46 | 93 |
1st half: CP 37, CSU 47 (CSU by 10). The model had CSU by 11.0 and a total of 74.5 (actual 84).
Team stats
| CP | CSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 27-63 43% | Field goals | 29-60 48% |
| 14-36 39% | 3-pointers | 16-36 44% |
| 11-18 61% | Free throws | 19-20 95% |
| 35 9 off | Rebounds | 38 6 off |
| 13 | Assists | 25 |
| 5 | Steals | 7 |
| 2 | Blocks | 1 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 11 |
| 22 | Fouls | 18 |
| 26 | Points in paint | 26 |
| 8 | Fast-break points | 16 |
Players
| CP | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Bandelj G | 29 | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5-10 | 2-6 |
| Cayden Ward G | 28 | 12 | 4 | 1 | 4-10 | 2-6 |
| Hamad Mousa G | 28 | 18 | 2 | 3 | 5-13 | 4-7 |
| Jake Davis G | 27 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 2-7 | 2-7 |
| Kieran Elliott G | 20 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2-4 | 0-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Ali Assran F | 17 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Guzman Vasilic G | 17 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3-5 | 2-4 |
| Austin Goode F | 11 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Troy Plumtree F | 9 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Aaron Price Jr. PF | 9 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Jason Scott G | 5 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2-3 | 2-2 |
Did not play: Braden Freeman, Jess Esso Essis, Eric Brown, Jackson Mosley, Luka Tarlac
| CSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Pascarelli G | 34 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 8-17 | 6-13 |
| Jevin Muniz G | 28 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 1-6 | 1-3 |
| Brandon Rechsteiner G | 26 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 5-11 | 3-9 |
| Carey Booth F | 25 | 15 | 10 | 0 | 4-6 | 1-1 |
| Kyle Jorgensen F | 11 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Jase Butler G | 20 | 13 | 5 | 3 | 4-7 | 2-4 |
| Augustinas Kiudulas F | 18 | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2-4 | 1-1 |
| Jojo McIver G | 18 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1-4 | 1-3 |
| Nikola Djapa C | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Darnez Slater G | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Jon Mekonnen F | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Docker Tedeschi, Charlie Dortch, Rashaan Mbemba
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCSU -18.5
ModelCSU -18.4
Model edgeCP +0.1
W CP covered
Total
Market165.5
Model159.0
Model edgeUnder 6.5
L Over
Projected score
CP 70.3 · CSU 88.7
CP 79 · CSU 93
Win probability
CSU 95%
1st half
Spread
CSU -11.0
CSU -10.0
Total
74.5
84 points
Projected score
CP 31.7 · CSU 42.7
CP 37 · CSU 47
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCSU -19.5
1 → CP
CloseCSU -18.5
1 pt toward CP
Total
Open165.5
no move
Close165.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
CP +1500 · CSU -5000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CSU -19.5 · closed CSU -18.5 · moved 1 toward CPmodel CSU -18.5 matches the line
model CSU -18.5 = line ✓
Opened 165.5 · unchangedmodel 159
model 159
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPlast 2 | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% | 0-2 0% |
| CSUlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Cal Poly
2 games played
Straight up
1-1
50% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
0-2
0% overs · avg −13 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@
SEA
SEAW 73-71
+12.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@USC
USCL 64-94
−5.5
8
@SEA
SEAW 73-71
−20.5
over 0under 2avg −13 ptslonger = bigger margin
Colorado St
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-0
100% covers · avg +16 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-0
100% overs · avg +16 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
UIW
UIWW 98-64
+23.5
9
vs
OMA
OMAW 97-74
+8.5
covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +16 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsUIW
UIWW 98-64
+14.5
9
vsOMA
OMAW 97-74
+17.5
over 2under 0avg +16 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Cal Poly
1-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Big West Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- W@ Seattle U73–71
- L@ USC64–94
4 days since their last game.
Colorado St
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Pac-12 Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Omaha97–74
- Wvs Incarnate Word98–64
3 days since their last game.