Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils at Cal State Bakersfield Roadrunners: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 4:00 PM ETIcardo Center · at Bakersfield

Final

#329CSUBBakersfield86▲ winner

Closing lineCSUB -21.5✓ MVSU covered by 5.5

Closing total138.5Over by 17.5

Season records: Miss Valley St and Bakersfield
MVSU	This season	CSUB
0-5	Record	1-3
3-2	ATS	2-2
3-2	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MVSU 63–84 CSUB · ✓ CSUB (97%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MVSU	22	48	70
CSUB	39	47	86

1st half: MVSU 22, CSUB 39 (CSUB by 17). The model had CSUB by 12.5 and a total of 68.7 (actual 61).

Team stats

MVSU		CSUB
25-58 43%	Field goals	25-60 42%
2-10 20%	3-pointers	7-25 28%
18-29 62%	Free throws	29-42 69%
34 8 off	Rebounds	45 16 off
9	Assists	12
5	Steals	8
2	Blocks	3
12	Turnovers	10
27	Fouls	25
30	Points in paint	28
13	Fast-break points	14

Players

MVSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Daniel Mayfield F	33	22	10	1	9-18	0-1
Patrick Punch G	33	8	6	1	3-10	0-2
Lamont Sams F	33	4	2	0	2-5	0-3
Mike James G	20	20	0	2	6-9	2-2
Delkedric Holmes G	20	5	1	2	1-3	0-1
Bench
X'Zaevion Barnett G	36	4	4	2	1-6	0-1
Chance Sutton F	11	0	5	0	0-2	0-0
Samuel Murray F	10	7	4	1	3-3	0-0
Tyrone Iroghama G	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Mussa Mzein C	1	0	0	0	0-1	0-0

Did not play: Antonio Sisk, Jonathan Pace, Derrick Singleton, George Ivory III

CSUB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
CJ Hardy G	33	13	8	3	3-7	1-3
AJ George G	32	10	6	0	4-10	0-3
Ronald Jessamy F	27	9	11	3	2-4	0-0
Dailin Smith G	27	23	3	1	5-14	2-7
Tom Mark F	10	0	0	1	0-2	0-1
Bench
Mike Price G	19	15	1	0	6-12	3-6
Kadar Waller G	17	6	2	2	2-2	0-0
Caleb McCarty F	16	3	6	2	1-1	0-0
Jaden Alexander G	15	7	4	0	2-6	1-4
Bentley Waller G	4	0	0	0	0-2	0-1

Did not play: Colin Darby, Dylan Purnell, TJ James Jr., Pierre Geneste Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	CSUB -21.5	CSUB -21.0	MVSU +0.5	W MVSU covered
Total	138.5	146.5	Over 8.0	W Over
Projected score	—	MVSU 62.8 · CSUB 83.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	CSUB -12.5	CSUB -17.0
1H total	68.7	61
1H projected score	MVSU 28.1 · CSUB 40.6	MVSU 22 · CSUB 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MVSU LLWWW	3-2	60%	1-2	3-2
CSUB LWWL	2-2	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MVSU away, as underdog; CSUB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MVSU OOUOU	3-2	60%	0-5
CSUB UUOO	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MVSUlast 5	0-5 0%	3-2 60%	3-2 60%
CSUBlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Miss Valley St

5 games played

Straight up

0-5

0% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +5.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-50%

L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L L W W W

3 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UAB	L 55-106	+34.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 161
Nov 7	@MUR	L 60-108	+38.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 12	@HAW	L 56-88	+41.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsUTU	L 75-81	+26.5	W +20.5	145.5	O 156
Nov 15	vsMAN	L 73-80	+20.5	W +13.5	154.5	U 153

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

−16.5

MUR

L 60-108

−9.5

HAW

L 56-88

+9.5

UTU

L 75-81

+20.5

MAN

L 73-80

+13.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

+15.5

MUR

L 60-108

+8.5

HAW

L 56-88

−7.5

UTU

L 75-81

+10.5

MAN

L 73-80

−1.5

over 3under 2avg +5.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bakersfield

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −1.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg +5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L W L L

2 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L W W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

U U O O

2 straight overs2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CAL	L 60-87	+15.5	L −11.5	147.5	U 147
Nov 11	vsWIU	W 74-58	-7.5	W +8.5	141.5	U 132
Nov 14	@MISS	L 60-82	+23.5	W +1.5	140.5	O 142
Nov 17	@PRST	L 80-93	+8.5	L −4.5	141.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−11.5

WIU

W 74-58

+8.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

−4.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CAL

L 60-87

−0.5

WIU

W 74-58

−9.5

MISS

L 60-82

+1.5

PRST

L 80-93

+31.5

over 2under 2avg +5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Miss Valley St @ Bakersfield

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Miss Valley St

Bakersfield

Miss Valley St

Bakersfield