VMI Keydets at Stetson Hatters: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 22, 7:00 PM ETInsight Credit Union Arena at Edmunds Center · at Stetson

#320VMIVMI80final

Final

#303STETStetson99▲ winner

Closing lineVMI -2.5✓ STET covered by 21.5

Closing total148.5Over by 30.5

Season records: VMI and Stetson
VMI	This season	STET
1-3	Record	1-3
1-3	ATS	2-2
1-3	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: VMI 75–74 STET · ✗ VMI (53%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
VMI	38	42	80
STET	44	55	99

1st half: VMI 38, STET 44 (STET by 6). The model had VMI by 0.7 and a total of 69.7 (actual 82).

Team stats

VMI		STET
30-65 46%	Field goals	36-61 59%
10-31 32%	3-pointers	21-40 53%
10-15 67%	Free throws	6-9 67%
29 12 off	Rebounds	36 9 off
10	Assists	30
6	Steals	3
0	Blocks	3
6	Turnovers	10
15	Fouls	11
38	Points in paint	28
4	Fast-break points	9

Players

VMI	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
TJ Johnson F	33	20	6	3	6-17	2-11
AJ Clark G	33	12	11	1	5-7	0-0
Tan Yildizoglu G	31	7	2	4	3-7	1-3
Linus Holmstrom G	23	9	0	0	3-9	3-8
Cal Liston F	17	0	2	0	0-1	0-1
Bench
Mario Tatum Jr. G	27	10	2	1	5-9	0-2
Walker Andrews G	18	15	0	1	5-9	3-5
Kaden Stuckey F	10	4	3	0	2-3	0-0
Mason Hagedorn F	5	3	1	0	1-3	1-1
Jaylen Pazon G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Alexander Daushvili, Branford Edmonds III, Mason Lawson, Robert Peters, Rickey Bradley Jr.

STET	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ethan Copeland G	34	25	3	6	9-14	7-12
Alex Doyle F	33	21	4	5	7-12	7-11
Calvin Sirmans III G	29	5	2	10	1-5	1-4
Jamie Phillips Jr. G	27	24	8	3	9-15	3-7
Collin Kuhl F	18	8	4	2	4-6	0-0
Bench
Jake Johnson G	25	8	6	3	3-4	2-3
Matar Diop F	18	5	5	0	2-2	0-0
Sean Morgan G	9	3	0	1	1-2	1-2
J.R. Leonard G	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-1
Isaac Jones G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Ben Gladieux, Miller McGowan, Daniel Macgregor, Janusz Ratowski, Finley Sheridan

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	VMI -2.5	VMI -0.8	STET +1.7	W STET covered
Total	148.5	148.8	Over 0.3	W Over
Projected score	—	VMI 74.8 · STET 74

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	VMI -0.7	STET -6.0
1H total	69.7	82
1H projected score	VMI 35.2 · STET 34.5	VMI 38 · STET 44

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
VMI WLLL	1-3	25%	1-2	1-0
STET LLWW	2-2	50%	1-0	2-2

Venue/role: VMI away, as favorite; STET home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
VMI UOUU	1-3	25%	1-3
STET OOUU	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
VMIlast 4	1-3 25%	1-3 25%	1-3 25%
STETlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

VMI

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −4 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-325%

W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@USI	W 78-74	-2.5	W +1.5	153.5	U 152
Nov 9	@MIZ	L 68-106	+23.5	L −14.5	161.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsJAX	L 67-69	+1.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 136
Nov 19	@RICH	L 54-87	+14.5	L −18.5	152.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USI

W 78-74

+1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

−14.5

JAX

L 67-69

−0.5

RICH

L 54-87

−18.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USI

W 78-74

−1.5

MIZ

L 68-106

+12.5

JAX

L 67-69

−15.5

RICH

L 54-87

−11.5

over 1under 3avg −4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Stetson

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −9 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@URI	L 62-93	+18.5	L −12.5	152.5	O 155
Nov 10	@MIA	L 61-102	+34.5	L −6.5	161.5	O 163
Nov 16	@WCU	L 65-76	+12.5	W +1.5	155.5	U 141
Nov 19	vsHOW	W 64-60	+1.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 124

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

URI

L 62-93

−12.5

MIA

L 61-102

−6.5

WCU

L 65-76

+1.5

HOW

W 64-60

+5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

URI

L 62-93

+2.5

MIA

L 61-102

+1.5

WCU

L 65-76

−14.5

HOW

W 64-60

−25.5

over 2under 2avg −9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

VMI @ Stetson

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

VMI

Stetson

VMI

Stetson