UNC Greensboro Spartans at Queens University Royals: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 20, 7:00 PM ETCurry Arena · at Queens University Royals

Final

#175QUCQueens University Royals101▲ winner

Closing lineQUC -7.5✓ UNCG covered by 0.5

Closing total150.5Over by 44.5

Season records: UNC Greensboro and Queens University Royals
UNCG	This season	QUC
0-4	Record	1-3
0-4	ATS	2-2
3-1	O/U	2-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNCG 75–81 QUC · ✓ QUC (71%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNCG	39	55	94
QUC	51	50	101

1st half: UNCG 39, QUC 51 (QUC by 12). The model had QUC by 3.6 and a total of 73.3 (actual 90).

Team stats

UNCG		QUC
32-57 56%	Field goals	33-62 53%
6-17 35%	3-pointers	15-32 47%
24-36 67%	Free throws	20-23 87%
27 9 off	Rebounds	36 12 off
8	Assists	19
4	Steals	1
1	Blocks	3
4	Turnovers	6
18	Fouls	24
46	Points in paint	36
3	Fast-break points	5

Players

UNCG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Justin Neely F	32	19	8	2	6-10	1-1
Valentino Pinedo F	32	10	7	2	4-8	0-0
Lilian Marville G	28	11	3	2	3-8	1-3
Donald Whitehead Jr. G	28	14	1	2	5-12	1-7
KJ Younger G	25	22	1	0	7-9	2-3
Bench
Noah Norgaard G	19	4	0	0	2-3	0-1
Domas Kauzonas F	16	11	2	0	4-5	0-0
Clinton Efinda F	15	0	1	0	0-0	0-0
Landon King G	4	3	0	0	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Antwann Jones, Braylen Bowman, Chane Bynum, Assane Mandian, Jordan Brown, Clyde Bailey II

QUC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chris Ashby G	35	18	3	1	5-14	5-12
Nasir Mann G	29	12	5	5	3-10	0-3
Yoav Berman F	28	17	6	4	4-10	2-5
Jordan Watford G	28	13	3	6	6-9	0-0
Avantae Parker F	22	14	5	1	6-6	1-1
Bench
Carson Schwieger F	17	9	4	0	3-5	3-5
Maban Jabriel G	17	9	4	0	3-3	3-3
Gus Larson F	17	8	4	1	3-4	1-2
Kam Clark G	6	1	2	1	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Matthew Walter, Seamus Wilson, Saif-Allah Zatari, Tyler Crider, Jimma James, Reid Celestin, Danzelle Bullock Coles, Colby Christiansen, Jacob Brandly, Isaiah Henry

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	QUC -7.5	QUC -6.2	UNCG +1.3	W UNCG covered
Total	150.5	156.6	Over 6.1	W Over
Projected score	—	UNCG 75.2 · QUC 81.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	QUC -3.6	QUC -12.0
1H total	73.3	90
1H projected score	UNCG 34.9 · QUC 38.5	UNCG 39 · QUC 51

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
UNCG LLLL	0-4	0%	0-2	0-2
QUC LLWW	2-2	50%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: UNCG away, as underdog; QUC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNCG OOOU	3-1	75%	0-4
QUC UOOU	2-2	50%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNCGlast 4	0-4 0%	0-4 0%	3-1 75%
QUClast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	2-2 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNC Greensboro

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

0-4

0% covers · avg −10 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +13.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@KSU	L 64-93	+18.5	L −10.5	148.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsELON	L 90-92	-4.5	L −6.5	142.5	O 182
Nov 12	@NCSU	L 64-110	+30.5	L −15.5	153.5	O 174
Nov 15	vsAPSU	L 63-69	-1.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 132

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

−10.5

ELON

L 90-92

−6.5

NCSU

L 64-110

−15.5

APSU

L 63-69

−7.5

covered 0didn’t cover 4avg −10 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

KSU

L 64-93

+8.5

ELON

L 90-92

+39.5

NCSU

L 64-110

+20.5

APSU

L 63-69

−13.5

over 3under 1avg +13.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Queens University Royals

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −1.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-250%

U O O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIN	L 74-81	+3.5	L −3.5	163.5	U 155
Nov 8	@VILL	L 74-94	+17.5	L −2.5	150.5	O 168
Nov 11	@DUQ	L 81-87	+12.5	W +6.5	162.5	O 168
Nov 15	vsSHU	W 81-64	-5.5	W +11.5	165.5	U 145

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−3.5

VILL

L 74-94

−2.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+6.5

SHU

W 81-64

+11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIN

L 74-81

−8.5

VILL

L 74-94

+17.5

DUQ

L 81-87

+5.5

SHU

W 81-64

−20.5

over 2under 2avg −1.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UNC Greensboro @ Queens University Royals

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UNC Greensboro

Queens University Royals

UNC Greensboro

Queens University Royals