Bucknell Bison vs Bowling Green Falcons: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 12:00 PM ETSuncoast Credit Union Arena · Neutral site

#299BUCKBucknell66final

Final

#200BGSUBowling Green71▲ winner

Closing lineBGSU -10.5✓ BUCK covered by 5.5

Closing total144.5Under by 7.5

Season records: Bucknell and Bowling Green
BUCK	This season	BGSU
2-4	Record	2-2
2-4	ATS	3-1
1-5	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: BUCK 71–78 BGSU · ✓ BGSU (72%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
BUCK	24	42	66
BGSU	35	36	71

1st half: BUCK 24, BGSU 35 (BGSU by 11). The model had BGSU by 3.9 and a total of 69.8 (actual 59).

Team stats

BUCK		BGSU
21-45 47%	Field goals	21-47 45%
9-20 45%	3-pointers	11-23 48%
15-20 75%	Free throws	18-26 69%
31 4 off	Rebounds	27 5 off
13	Assists	15
9	Steals	12
3	Blocks	3
18	Turnovers	15
23	Fouls	20
24	Points in paint	18
17	Fast-break points	14

Players

BUCK	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Amon Dorries C	37	22	3	1	7-10	2-3
Jayden Williams G	33	2	5	3	0-2	0-0
Brandon McCreesh G	32	10	4	3	4-10	2-6
Achile Spadone G	26	16	2	3	5-10	2-4
Grgur Brcic F	19	2	5	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Pat Curtin G	22	11	4	1	3-8	2-5
Josh Fulton G	16	0	3	2	0-0	0-0
Aleksander Pachucki G	12	3	3	0	1-3	1-2
Jacob Meachem G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Kellen Welch, Ruot Bijiek, Matt Lange, Brady Muller, Patrick O'Brien, Quin Berger

BGSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Javontae Campbell G	37	14	3	1	5-12	2-3
Justin Thomas G	37	9	7	4	2-5	2-3
Sam Towns F	28	15	4	2	3-8	1-3
Javon Ruffin G	27	15	1	4	5-9	5-9
Troy Glover II F	26	6	4	2	2-2	0-0
Bench
Mayar Wol F	19	8	2	1	3-7	1-3
Josiah Shackelford G	17	4	2	1	1-3	0-1
Camden Karel F	9	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Mohamed Maxamud, Aiden Goins, Christian Dedivanaj, Makhi Leach, Jason Kimbrough, Alijah Adem, Preston Squire, Greg Spurgin, Jaxon Pardon

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BGSU -10.5	BGSU -6.7	BUCK +3.8	W BUCK covered
Total	144.5	148.9	Over 4.4	L Under
Projected score	—	BUCK 71.1 · BGSU 77.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BGSU -3.9	BGSU -11.0
1H total	69.8	59
1H projected score	BUCK 32.9 · BGSU 36.8	BUCK 24 · BGSU 35

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
BUCK WLLLL	2-4	33%	—	1-4
BGSU WWWL	3-1	75%	—	2-1

Venue/role: BUCK neutral site, as underdog; BGSU neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUCK UUOUU	1-5	17%	2-4
BGSU UUOU	1-3	25%	2-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUCKlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	1-5 17%
BGSUlast 4	2-2 50%	3-1 75%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Bucknell

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −4.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-5

17% overs · avg −3.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

W W L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

W W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-517%

U U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsDEL	W 78-70	-2.5	W +5.5	149.5	U 148
Nov 7	@MSM	W 73-62	+1.5	W +12.5	143.5	U 135
Nov 11	@PRIN	L 63-73	+4.5	L −5.5	146.5	U 136
Nov 14	vsHOF	L 77-83	+4.5	L −1.5	139.5	O 160
Nov 17	@PITT	L 50-84	+16.5	L −17.5	141.5	U 134
Nov 20	@SJU	L 49-97	+28.5	L −19.5	158.5	U 146

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

+5.5

MSM

W 73-62

+12.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−5.5

HOF

L 77-83

−1.5

PITT

L 50-84

−17.5

SJU

L 49-97

−19.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DEL

W 78-70

−1.5

MSM

W 73-62

−8.5

PRIN

L 63-73

−10.5

HOF

L 77-83

+20.5

PITT

L 50-84

−7.5

SJU

L 49-97

−12.5

over 1under 5avg −3.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Bowling Green

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

3-1

75% covers · avg +6.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-175%

W W W L

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTXST	W 83-48	-5.5	W +29.5	146.5	U 131
Nov 9	vsLEM	W 83-60	-11.5	W +11.5	154.5	U 143
Nov 15	@DAV	L 87-91	+4.5	W +0.5	144.5	O 178
Nov 19	vsW&M	L 74-82	-8.5	L −16.5	167.5	U 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TXST

W 83-48

+29.5

LEM

W 83-60

+11.5

DAV

L 87-91

+0.5

W&M

L 74-82

−16.5

covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +6.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TXST

W 83-48

−15.5

LEM

W 83-60

−11.5

DAV

L 87-91

+33.5

W&M

L 74-82

−11.5

over 1under 3avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Bucknell vs Bowling Green

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Bucknell

Bowling Green

Bucknell

Bowling Green