Wolstein Center · at Cleveland St
Closing line
CLE -2.5✓ VAL covered by 17.5
CLE -2.5✓ VAL covered by 17.5Closing total158.5Over by 6.5
 VAL | This season | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 3-1 | Record | 1-3 |
| 2-2 | ATS | 3-1 |
| 1-3 | O/U | 4-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: VAL 77–79 CLE · ✗ CLE (55%) lost
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VAL | 39 | 51 | 90 |
| CLE | 27 | 48 | 75 |
1st half: VAL 39, CLE 27 (VAL by 12). The model had CLE by 0.7 and a total of 73.0 (actual 66).
Team stats
| VAL | CLE | |
|---|---|---|
| 34-63 54% | Field goals | 25-55 45% |
| 7-22 32% | 3-pointers | 6-25 24% |
| 15-20 75% | Free throws | 19-23 83% |
| 39 13 off | Rebounds | 23 5 off |
| 15 | Assists | 9 |
| 6 | Steals | 3 |
| 7 | Blocks | 1 |
| 9 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 21 | Fouls | 18 |
| 48 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 9 |
Players
| VAL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakim Chaney G | 38 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 9-12 | 3-4 |
| Shon Tupuola F | 33 | 21 | 7 | 0 | 8-10 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Barnes G | 32 | 11 | 3 | 1 | 4-9 | 0-3 |
| JT Pettigrew F | 19 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Mark Brown Jr. G | 18 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1-3 | 1-3 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Justus McNair G | 26 | 21 | 6 | 2 | 8-15 | 1-5 |
| Carter Hopoi F | 21 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 1-6 | 1-3 |
| Sader Servilus G | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Nick Lombardi G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Kyonte Thomas G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Camden Webster, Joe Vick, Brody Whitaker, Jayden Watson, Kobe Walker, Tucker Tornatta, Owen Dease
| CLE | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josiah Harris F | 31 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 3-8 | 0-3 |
| Dayan Nessah G | 31 | 13 | 3 | 0 | 5-12 | 0-2 |
| Tre Beard G | 30 | 22 | 1 | 1 | 7-12 | 6-10 |
| Foster Wonders G | 24 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-6 | 0-5 |
| Jaidon Lipscomb G | 7 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Preist Ryan F | 25 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Chevalier Emery G | 18 | 14 | 2 | 1 | 4-7 | 0-2 |
| Holden Pierre-Louis F | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Manny Hill G | 9 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Kamari Jones G | 7 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Ivan Spirov F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Lucas Burton F | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
Did not play: David Giddens, Waqo Tessema, Kevo St. Hilaire
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketCLE -2.5
ModelCLE -1.4
Model edgeVAL +1.1
W VAL covered
Total
Market158.5
Model155.9
Model edgeUnder 2.6
L Over
Projected score
VAL 77.2 · CLE 78.6
VAL 90 · CLE 75
Win probability
CLE 55%
1st half
Spread
CLE -0.7
VAL -12.0
Total
73.0
66 points
Projected score
VAL 36.2 · CLE 36.9
VAL 39 · CLE 27
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenCLE -3.5
1 → VAL
CloseCLE -2.5
1 pt toward VAL
Total
Open157.5
▲ 1
Close158.5
Up 1 since the open
Moneyline
VAL +115 · CLE -135
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened CLE -3.5 · closed CLE -2.5 · moved 1 toward VALmodel CLE -1.5
model CLE -1.5
Opened 157.5 · closed 158.5 · moved 1 upmodel 156
model 156
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| VALlast 4 | 3-1 75% | 2-2 50% | 1-3 25% |
| CLElast 4 | 1-3 25% | 3-1 75% | 4-0 100% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
VAL 0–1 CLECLE leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · VAL 0-1 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 12, 2024-25 | CLE 75 @ VAL 67 | VAL -3.5 | CLE W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Valparaiso
4 games played
Straight up
3-1
75% wins
Against the spread
2-2
50% covers · avg −1 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-3
25% overs · avg −11.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
EIU
EIUW 66-63
−2.5
7
@
UK
UKL 59-107
−15.5
12
vs
NICH
NICHW 68-63
+2.5
16
vs
BRY
BRYW 68-50
+11.5
covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −1 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsEIU
EIUW 66-63
−15.5
7
@UK
UKL 59-107
+8.5
12
vsNICH
NICHW 68-63
−13.5
16
vsBRY
BRYW 68-50
−25.5
over 1under 3avg −11.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Cleveland St
4 games played
Straight up
1-3
25% wins
Against the spread
3-1
75% covers · avg +2.3 pts vs the line
Over / Under
4-0
100% overs · avg +21.8 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
LUC
LUCL 88-91
+14.5
10
@
NU
NUL 63-110
−23.5
15
vs
KENT
KENTL 95-102
+4.5
16
vs
RAD
RADW 87-82
+13.5
covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@LUC
LUCL 88-91
+27.5
10
@NU
NUL 63-110
+21.5
15
vsKENT
KENTL 95-102
+31.5
16
vsRAD
RADW 87-82
+6.5
over 4under 0avg +21.8 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Valparaiso
3-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Missouri Valley Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Bryant68–50
- Wvs Nicholls68–63
- L@ Kentucky59–107
- Wvs E Illinois66–63
3 days since their last game.
Cleveland St
1-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Horizon League
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Radford87–82
- Lvs Kent State95–102
- L@ Northwestern63–110
- L@ Loyola Chicago88–91
3 days since their last game.