Akron Zips at Purdue Boilermakers: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 16, 7:30 PM ETMackey Arena · at Purdue

#118AKRAkron79final

Final

#23PURPurdue AP #297▲ winner

Closing linePUR -18.5✓ AKR covered by 0.5

Closing total163.5Over by 12.5

Season records: Akron and Purdue
AKR	This season	PUR
2-0	Record	3-0
2-0	ATS	1-2
2-0	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: AKR 70–92 PUR · ✓ PUR (98%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
AKR	39	40	79
PUR	52	45	97

1st half: AKR 39, PUR 52 (PUR by 13). The model had PUR by 13.5 and a total of 75.7 (actual 91).

Team stats

AKR		PUR
27-67 40%	Field goals	35-67 52%
13-33 39%	3-pointers	9-23 39%
12-17 71%	Free throws	18-23 78%
26 12 off	Rebounds	45 19 off
18	Assists	20
9	Steals	7
1	Blocks	6
10	Turnovers	13
19	Fouls	15
18	Points in paint	46
7	Fast-break points	6

Players

AKR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Shammah Scott G	30	9	3	5	4-13	1-7
Tavari Johnson G	28	20	3	2	7-16	2-5
Evan Mahaffey F	25	12	5	1	4-8	1-2
Eric Mahaffey G	23	10	2	4	4-7	2-2
Amani Lyles F	22	8	1	2	3-7	2-5
Bench
Sharron Young G	22	7	4	2	2-8	2-6
Bowen Hardman G	17	6	2	1	2-4	2-4
Marvin Musiime-Kamali F	13	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
Ognjen Stankovic F	9	3	2	0	1-2	1-2
Chabi Barre F	6	4	0	0	0-1	0-0
Zach Halligan F	4	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Conner Groce G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Rich Brisco, Cody Head, Tai Perkins, Josh Henderson

PUR	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Trey Kaufman-Renn F	27	17	15	1	7-10	0-0
Braden Smith G	27	16	3	10	4-12	1-4
Fletcher Loyer G	25	16	0	1	4-10	3-6
C.J. Cox G	24	3	1	0	1-5	1-3
Oscar Cluff C	21	14	14	1	7-9	0-0
Bench
Omer Mayer G	23	14	4	6	5-10	3-7
Daniel Jacobsen C	19	9	2	0	4-5	1-1
Gicarri Harris G	17	6	2	1	2-3	0-1
Jack Benter G	14	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
Jace Rayl G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Aaron Fine G	1	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Jack Lusk G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Antione West Jr, Sam King, Raleigh Burgess, Liam Murphy

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PUR -18.5	PUR -22.5	PUR +4.0	L AKR covered
Total	163.5	161.7	Under 1.8	L Over
Projected score	—	AKR 69.6 · PUR 92.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PUR -13.5	PUR -13.0
1H total	75.7	91
1H projected score	AKR 31.1 · PUR 44.6	AKR 39 · PUR 52

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
AKR WW	2-0	100%	—	—
PUR LLW	1-2	33%	0-2	0-2

Venue/role: AKR away, as underdog; PUR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
AKR OO	2-0	100%	2-0
PUR UOU	1-2	33%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
AKRlast 2	2-0 100%	2-0 100%	2-0 100%
PURlast 3	3-0 100%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Akron

2 games played

Straight up

2-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +13.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-0100%

W W

2 straight wins2 of 2 won

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsJMU	W 85-71	-8.5	W +5.5	153.5	O 156
Nov 8	vsPRIN	W 104-69	-13.5	W +21.5	156.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JMU

W 85-71

+5.5

PRIN

W 104-69

+21.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JMU

W 85-71

+2.5

PRIN

W 104-69

+16.5

over 2under 0avg +9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Purdue

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −5.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsEVAN	W 82-51	-33.5	L −2.5	150.5	U 133
Nov 7	vsOAK	W 87-77	-31.5	L −21.5	158.5	O 164
Nov 13	@ALA	W 87-80	+3.5	W +10.5	172.5	U 167

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−2.5

OAK

W 87-77

−21.5

ALA

W 87-80

+10.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

EVAN

W 82-51

−17.5

OAK

W 87-77

+5.5

ALA

W 87-80

−5.5

over 1under 2avg −5.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Akron @ Purdue

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Akron

Purdue

Akron

Purdue