Arizona State Sun Devils vs Texas Longhorns: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 11:43 PM ETLahaina Civic Center · Neutral site

#60ASUArizona St87▲ winner

Final

#11TEXTexas86final

Closing lineTEX -6.5✓ ASU covered by 7.5

Closing total153.5Over by 19.5

Season records: Arizona St and Texas
ASU	This season	TEX
4-1	Record	4-1
3-2	ATS	3-2
1-4	O/U	2-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ASU 72–80 TEX · ✗ TEX (75%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ASU	39	48	87
TEX	34	52	86

1st half: ASU 39, TEX 34 (ASU by 5). The model had TEX by 4.6 and a total of 71.1 (actual 73).

Team stats

ASU		TEX
25-52 48%	Field goals	30-55 55%
9-18 50%	3-pointers	6-19 32%
28-36 78%	Free throws	20-27 74%
22 6 off	Rebounds	34 11 off
4	Assists	10
7	Steals	4
3	Blocks	6
11	Turnovers	19
21	Fouls	28
30	Points in paint	46
4	Fast-break points	23

Players

ASU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Maurice Odum G	35	36	2	3	7-21	6-12
Andrija Grbovic F	31	8	4	0	3-8	2-5
Santiago Trouet F	24	6	6	0	3-5	0-0
Bryce Ford G	24	5	1	0	1-2	1-1
Massamba Diop C	17	6	1	0	2-3	0-0
Bench
Anthony Johnson G	24	17	2	0	5-6	0-0
Noah Meeusen G	23	4	0	1	2-3	0-0
Allen Mukeba F	16	5	1	0	2-4	0-0
Marcus Adams Jr. F	6	0	2	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Trevor Best, Jovan Icitovic, Adante' Holiman, Dame Salane, Vijay Wallace, Quentin McCoy, Kash Polk

TEX	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dailyn Swain G	35	24	5	3	10-14	1-3
Jordan Pope G	32	10	4	3	4-11	2-6
Camden Heide F	27	7	1	1	2-4	1-3
Matas Vokietaitis C	26	15	8	0	5-9	0-0
Tramon Mark G	23	11	2	1	3-5	1-3
Bench
Chendall Weaver G	20	9	7	1	3-5	1-2
Simeon Wilcher G	19	6	4	1	1-4	0-2
Lassina Traore F	10	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Nic Codie F	8	4	1	0	2-2	0-0

Did not play: Cole Bott, Lewis Obiorah, Declan Duru Jr., Anthon McDermott, Brandon Taylor, John Clark

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	TEX -6.5	TEX -7.8	TEX +1.3	L ASU covered
Total	153.5	151.8	Under 1.7	L Over
Projected score	—	ASU 72 · TEX 79.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	TEX -4.6	ASU -5.0
1H total	71.1	73
1H projected score	ASU 33.3 · TEX 37.8	ASU 39 · TEX 34

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
ASU LWWLW	3-2	60%	—	2-0
TEX LWWLW	3-2	60%	0-1	3-1

Venue/role: ASU neutral site, as underdog; TEX neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
ASU UUUUO	1-4	20%	4-1
TEX UOUUO	2-3	40%	4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ASUlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
TEXlast 5	4-1 80%	3-2 60%	2-3 40%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Arizona St

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −4.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

W W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U U O

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsSUU	W 81-64	-17.5	L −0.5	151.5	U 145
Nov 9	vsUTU	W 81-66	-12.5	W +2.5	152.5	U 147
Nov 14	vsGONZ	L 65-77	+13.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 142
Nov 17	vsGAST	W 75-62	-18.5	L −5.5	145.5	U 137
Nov 20	@HAW	W 83-76	+1.5	W +8.5	143.5	O 159

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−0.5

UTU

W 81-66

+2.5

GONZ

L 65-77

+1.5

GAST

W 75-62

−5.5

HAW

W 83-76

+8.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SUU

W 81-64

−6.5

UTU

W 81-66

−5.5

GONZ

L 65-77

−16.5

GAST

W 75-62

−8.5

HAW

W 83-76

+15.5

over 1under 4avg −4.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Texas

5 games played

Straight up

4-1

80% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-3

40% overs · avg −7.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-180%

L W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-260%

L W W L W

3 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-340%

U O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsDUKE	L 60-75	+10.5	L −4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsLAF	W 97-60	-25.5	W +11.5	153.5	O 157
Nov 12	vsFDU	W 93-58	-31.5	W +3.5	158.5	U 151
Nov 15	vsKC	W 71-55	-31.5	L −15.5	159.5	U 126
Nov 18	vsRID	W 99-65	-30.5	W +3.5	143.5	O 164

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−4.5

LAF

W 97-60

+11.5

FDU

W 93-58

+3.5

W 71-55

−15.5

RID

W 99-65

+3.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUKE

L 60-75

−18.5

LAF

W 97-60

+3.5

FDU

W 93-58

−7.5

W 71-55

−33.5

RID

W 99-65

+20.5

over 2under 3avg −7.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Arizona St vs Texas

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Arizona St

Texas

Arizona St

Texas