Radford Highlanders at SMU Mustangs: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 24, 8:00 PM ETMoody Coliseum (Dallas) · at SMU

#246RADRadford72final

Final

#55SMUSMU89▲ winner

Closing lineSMU -23.5✓ RAD covered by 6.5

Closing total165.5Under by 4.5

Season records: Radford and SMU
RAD	This season	SMU
1-5	Record	6-0
1-5	ATS	3-3
4-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: RAD 69–92 SMU · ✓ SMU (98%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
RAD	38	34	72
SMU	46	43	89

1st half: RAD 38, SMU 46 (SMU by 8). The model had SMU by 14.0 and a total of 75.4 (actual 84).

Team stats

RAD		SMU
23-69 33%	Field goals	27-59 46%
11-39 28%	3-pointers	10-26 38%
15-18 83%	Free throws	25-32 78%
34 10 off	Rebounds	50 13 off
12	Assists	17
12	Steals	6
4	Blocks	6
11	Turnovers	16
22	Fouls	16
20	Points in paint	32
7	Fast-break points	15

Players

RAD	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Del Jones G	32	16	2	3	5-11	2-5
Dennis Parker Jr. G	29	18	4	1	6-15	1-4
Lukas Walls G	23	2	4	1	0-4	0-4
Tyson Brown F	20	2	6	2	1-7	0-1
Mari Jordan G	5	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Bench
Jaylon Johnson G	33	15	4	2	5-14	4-11
Brennan Rigsby Jr. G	27	5	4	3	2-7	0-4
Frederik Erichsen F	16	5	3	0	1-2	1-2
Louie Jordan F	15	9	3	0	3-8	3-8

Did not play: Gabriel Ferreira, Warren Keel Jr., Diogo Alves, Bradley Land, Zion Walker

SMU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Boopie Miller G	37	25	1	10	5-9	3-4
Jaron Pierre Jr. G	36	15	13	1	5-13	2-6
Corey Washington F	32	21	12	0	8-13	3-7
B.J. Edwards G	31	10	4	2	4-13	1-6
Samet Yigitoglu C	25	8	10	1	2-4	0-0
Bench
Mitchell Holmes F	15	4	2	0	1-1	0-0
Jermaine O'Neal Jr. F	13	6	1	1	2-4	1-3
B.J. Davis-Ray G	6	0	2	2	0-2	0-0
Chance Puryear G	4	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Nigel Walls F	1	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Billy White III, Niccolo Kalischer-Stork, Sam Walters, Trey Utter, Jaden Toombs

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	SMU -23.5	SMU -23.4	RAD +0.1	W RAD covered
Total	165.5	161.1	Under 4.4	W Under
Projected score	—	RAD 68.8 · SMU 92.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SMU -14.0	SMU -8.0
1H total	75.4	84
1H projected score	RAD 30.7 · SMU 44.7	RAD 38 · SMU 46

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
RAD WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-1	1-2
SMU LWLWW	3-3	50%	3-3	3-3

Venue/role: RAD away, as underdog; SMU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
RAD OUOUO	4-2	67%	1-5
SMU UOOUU	3-3	50%	6-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
RADlast 6	1-5 17%	1-5 17%	4-2 67%
SMUlast 6	6-0 100%	3-3 50%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Radford

6 games played

Straight up

1-5

17% wins

Against the spread

1-5

17% covers · avg −13.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg −0.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-517%

W L L L L L

5 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-517%

L W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

4-267%

O O U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsWIU	W 80-75	-16.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 155
Nov 11	@UNC	L 74-89	+20.5	W +5.5	162.5	O 163
Nov 15	vsWRST	L 59-92	-6.5	L −39.5	156.5	U 151
Nov 16	vsCLE	L 82-87	-8.5	L −13.5	162.5	O 169
Nov 18	@SC	L 58-87	+10.5	L −18.5	153.5	U 145
Nov 21	vsUNCW	L 73-81	+4.5	L −3.5	151.5	O 154

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

−11.5

UNC

L 74-89

+5.5

WRST

L 59-92

−39.5

CLE

L 82-87

−13.5

L 58-87

−18.5

UNCW

L 73-81

−3.5

covered 1didn’t cover 5avg −13.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

WIU

W 80-75

+3.5

UNC

L 74-89

+0.5

WRST

L 59-92

−5.5

CLE

L 82-87

+6.5

L 58-87

−8.5

UNCW

L 73-81

+2.5

over 4under 2avg −0.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

SMU

6 games played

Straight up

6-0

100% wins

Against the spread

3-3

50% covers · avg +1.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg +4.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

6-0100%

W W W W W W

6 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-350%

L L W L W W

2 straight covers3 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O U O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsTAR	W 96-76	-21.5	L −1.5	144.5	O 172
Nov 6	vsAMCC	W 69-58	-23.5	L −12.5	160.5	U 127
Nov 11	vsMUR	W 102-91	-10.5	W +0.5	164.5	O 193
Nov 15	vsBTLR	W 87-85	-7.5	L −5.5	163.5	O 172
Nov 18	vsUAPB	W 106-60	-35.5	W +10.5	168.5	U 166
Nov 21	vsARST	W 100-69	-14.5	W +16.5	172.5	U 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TAR

W 96-76

−1.5

AMCC

W 69-58

−12.5

MUR

W 102-91

+0.5

BTLR

W 87-85

−5.5

UAPB

W 106-60

+10.5

ARST

W 100-69

+16.5

covered 3didn’t cover 3avg +1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TAR

W 96-76

+27.5

AMCC

W 69-58

−33.5

MUR

W 102-91

+28.5

BTLR

W 87-85

+8.5

UAPB

W 106-60

−2.5

ARST

W 100-69

−3.5

over 3under 3avg +4.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Radford @ SMU

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Radford

SMU

Radford

SMU