Purcell Pavilion · at Notre Dame
Closing line
ND -24.5✓ BELL covered by 17.5
ND -24.5✓ BELL covered by 17.5Closing total150.5Over by 14.5
 BELL | This season | ND |
|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 1-2 | ATS | 3-1 |
| 3-0 | O/U | 2-2 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: BELL 66–88 ND · ✓ ND (97%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BELL | 30 | 49 | 79 |
| ND | 37 | 49 | 86 |
1st half: BELL 30, ND 37 (ND by 7). The model had ND by 13.2 and a total of 72.4 (actual 67).
Team stats
| BELL | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 25-46 54% | Field goals | 28-49 57% |
| 7-22 32% | 3-pointers | 7-19 37% |
| 22-27 81% | Free throws | 23-32 72% |
| 17 2 off | Rebounds | 31 9 off |
| 7 | Assists | 10 |
| 8 | Steals | 3 |
| 0 | Blocks | 1 |
| 13 | Turnovers | 14 |
| 22 | Fouls | 23 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 10 | Fast-break points | 13 |
Players
| BELL | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Waddell F | 34 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 6-10 | 1-3 |
| Kenyon Goodin G | 33 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Jack Karasinski F | 29 | 17 | 4 | 0 | 6-9 | 2-5 |
| Sam Donald F | 25 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0-6 | 0-4 |
| Tyler Doyle G | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Michael Wilson Jr. G | 29 | 17 | 0 | 0 | 4-6 | 2-4 |
| Myles Watkins G | 21 | 11 | 3 | 3 | 4-6 | 1-2 |
| Grant Whitaker G | 11 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Darrius Bolden G | 10 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Donovan Hunter F | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Jacob Wassler, Dominique Murphy, Ant McAfee, Tommy Clark, Grant Neal, Luke Anderson
| ND | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markus Burton G | 31 | 25 | 1 | 4 | 10-13 | 2-4 |
| Jalen Haralson G | 30 | 16 | 4 | 5 | 6-12 | 0-2 |
| Braeden Shrewsberry G | 29 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Carson Towt F | 29 | 12 | 11 | 0 | 4-6 | 0-0 |
| Garrett Sundra F | 10 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Cole Certa G | 20 | 12 | 2 | 1 | 2-5 | 2-5 |
| Sir Mohammed G | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Logan Imes G | 13 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Brady Koehler F | 13 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-1 |
| Kebba Njie F | 7 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Matthew MacLellan, Luke Devine, Tommy Ahneman, Ryder Frost, Brady Stevens
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketND -24.5
ModelND -22.2
Model edgeBELL +2.3
W BELL covered
Total
Market150.5
Model154.6
Model edgeOver 4.1
W Over
Projected score
BELL 66.2 · ND 88.4
BELL 79 · ND 86
Win probability
ND 97%
1st half
Spread
ND -13.2
ND -7.0
Total
72.4
67 points
Projected score
BELL 29.6 · ND 42.8
BELL 30 · ND 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenND -27.5
3 → BELL
CloseND -24.5
3 pts toward BELL
Total
Open150.5
no move
Close150.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
BELL +3500 · ND -50000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened ND -27.5 · closed ND -24.5 · moved 3 toward BELLmodel ND -22
model ND -22
Opened 150.5 · unchangedmodel 154.5
model 154.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| BELLlast 3 | 0-3 0% | 1-2 33% | 3-0 100% |
| NDlast 4 | 3-1 75% | 3-1 75% | 2-2 50% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Bellarmine
3 games played
Straight up
0-3
0% wins
Against the spread
1-2
33% covers · avg −8.2 pts vs the line
Over / Under
3-0
100% overs · avg +12.2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
@
UGA
UGAL 59-104
−21.5
8
@
KSU
KSUL 71-98
+1.5
15
vs
WOF
WOFL 86-94
−4.5
covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −8.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
@UGA
UGAL 59-104
+12.5
8
@KSU
KSUL 71-98
+0.5
15
vsWOF
WOFL 86-94
+23.5
over 3under 0avg +12.2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Notre Dame
4 games played
Straight up
3-1
75% wins
Against the spread
3-1
75% covers · avg +5.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-2
50% overs · avg +2 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
LIU
LIUW 89-67
+6.5
7
vs
DETM
DETMW 102-70
+10.5
11
vs
EIU
EIUW 78-58
−3.5
16
@
OSU
OSUL 63-64
+8.5
covered 3didn’t cover 1avg +5.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsLIU
LIUW 89-67
+20.5
7
vsDETM
DETMW 102-70
+24.5
11
vsEIU
EIUW 78-58
−7.5
16
@OSU
OSUL 63-64
−29.5
over 2under 2avg +2 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Bellarmine
0-3 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Sun Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Lvs Wofford86–94
- L@ Kansas St71–98
- L@ Georgia59–104
4 days since their last game.
Notre Dame
3-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- L@ Ohio State63–64
- Wvs E Illinois78–58
- Wvs Detroit Mercy102–70
- Wvs Long Island89–67
3 days since their last game.