Kansas Jayhawks vs Duke Blue Devils: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 9:00 PM ETMadison Square Garden · Neutral site

#16KUKansas AP #2466final

Final

#3DUKEDuke AP #578▲ winner

Closing lineDUKE -10.5✓ DUKE covered by 1.5

Closing total149.5Under by 5.5

Season records: Kansas and Duke
KU	This season	DUKE
3-1	Record	4-0
2-2	ATS	4-0
1-3	O/U	1-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: KU 70–79 DUKE · ✓ DUKE (78%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
KU	33	33	66
DUKE	41	37	78

1st half: KU 33, DUKE 41 (DUKE by 8). The model had DUKE by 5.3 and a total of 69.5 (actual 74).

Team stats

KU		DUKE
26-60 43%	Field goals	27-58 47%
4-21 19%	3-pointers	7-26 27%
10-14 71%	Free throws	17-26 65%
30 8 off	Rebounds	41 13 off
15	Assists	17
5	Steals	2
4	Blocks	1
8	Turnovers	8
22	Fouls	15
40	Points in paint	38
13	Fast-break points	9

Players

KU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Melvin Council Jr. G	38	15	2	6	6-15	1-4
Tre White G	35	22	9	4	7-13	2-4
Flory Bidunga F	32	14	6	1	7-10	0-0
Bryson Tiller F	30	6	6	1	2-8	0-3
Kohl Rosario G	26	4	2	1	2-7	0-5
Bench
Jayden Dawson G	28	5	0	2	2-6	1-5
Elmarko Jackson G	6	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Paul Mbiya C	4	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Jamari McDowell G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Corbin Allen, Darryn Peterson, Nginyu Ngala, Samis Calderon, Will Thengvall, Justin Cross, Wilder Evers

DUKE	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Cameron Boozer F	34	18	11	5	7-17	1-4
Isaiah Evans G	30	16	4	3	5-11	3-7
Patrick Ngongba II C	27	13	6	2	4-4	0-0
Caleb Foster G	25	7	3	1	2-6	1-4
Dame Sarr F	21	6	4	2	2-6	1-5
Bench
Cayden Boozer G	24	7	4	3	3-5	1-1
Maliq Brown F	20	5	3	0	2-3	0-1
Nik Khamenia F	12	4	3	0	2-4	0-2
Darren Harris G	7	2	0	1	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Cameron Sheffield, Sebastian Wilkins, Ifeanyi Ufochukwu, Jack Scott

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DUKE -10.5	DUKE -9.0	KU +1.5	L DUKE covered
Total	149.5	148.2	Under 1.3	W Under
Projected score	—	KU 69.6 · DUKE 78.6

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DUKE -5.3	DUKE -8.0
1H total	69.5	74
1H projected score	KU 32.1 · DUKE 37.4	KU 33 · DUKE 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
KU WLWL	2-2	50%	—	0-1
DUKE WWWW	4-0	100%	1-0	4-0

Venue/role: KU neutral site, as underdog; DUKE neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
KU UOUU	1-3	25%	3-1
DUKE UUOU	1-3	25%	4-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KUlast 4	3-1 75%	2-2 50%	1-3 25%
DUKElast 4	4-0 100%	4-0 100%	1-3 25%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

KU 2–0 DUKEKU leads · 2 games since 2021-22 · KU has won the last 2 meetings · KU 2-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 26, 2024-25	KU 75 vs DUKE 72	DUKE -3.5	KU W
Nov 15, 2022-23	DUKE 64 vs KU 69	KU -0.5	KU W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Kansas

4 games played

Straight up

3-1

75% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −10 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-175%

W L W W

2 straight wins3 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-325%

U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsGB	W 94-51	-30.5	W +12.5	152.5	U 145
Nov 7	@UNC	L 74-87	+2.5	L −10.5	159.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsAMCC	W 77-46	-25.5	W +5.5	145.5	U 123
Nov 15	vsPRIN	W 76-57	-22.5	L −3.5	144.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 94-51

+12.5

UNC

L 74-87

−10.5

AMCC

W 77-46

+5.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−3.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 94-51

−7.5

UNC

L 74-87

+1.5

AMCC

W 77-46

−22.5

PRIN

W 76-57

−11.5

over 1under 3avg −10 ptslonger = bigger margin

Duke

4 games played

Straight up

4-0

100% wins

Against the spread

4-0

100% covers · avg +7.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-3

25% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight wins4 of last 4 won

Against the spread

4-0100%

W W W W

4 straight covers4 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

1-325%

U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsTEX	W 75-60	-10.5	W +4.5	153.5	U 135
Nov 8	vsWCU	W 95-54	-36.5	W +4.5	152.5	U 149
Nov 11	@ARMY	W 114-59	-33.5	W +21.5	152.5	O 173
Nov 14	vsINST	W 100-62	-37.5	W +0.5	163.5	U 162

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

+4.5

WCU

W 95-54

+4.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+21.5

INST

W 100-62

+0.5

covered 4didn’t cover 0avg +7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEX

W 75-60

−18.5

WCU

W 95-54

−3.5

ARMY

W 114-59

+20.5

INST

W 100-62

−1.5

over 1under 3avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Kansas vs Duke

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Kansas

Duke

Kansas

Duke