Detroit Mercy Titans at Niagara Purple Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 29, 1:00 PM ETGallagher Center · at Niagara

#277DETMDetroit Mercy70▲ winner

Final

#346NIANiagara66final

Closing lineDETM -1.5✓ DETM covered by 2.5

Closing total142.5Under by 6.5

Season records: Detroit Mercy and Niagara
DETM	This season	NIA
0-6	Record	2-4
2-4	ATS	2-4
4-2	O/U	3-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DETM 74–73 NIA · ✓ DETM (51%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DETM	38	32	70
NIA	29	37	66

1st half: DETM 38, NIA 29 (DETM by 9). The model had DETM by 0.4 and a total of 68.8 (actual 67).

Team stats

DETM		NIA
22-55 40%	Field goals	25-56 45%
3-17 18%	3-pointers	7-28 25%
23-30 77%	Free throws	9-14 64%
43 14 off	Rebounds	27 4 off
11	Assists	18
2	Steals	2
1	Blocks	2
9	Turnovers	8
19	Fouls	21
30	Points in paint	30
9	Fast-break points	16

Players

DETM	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Orlando Lovejoy G	28	12	5	4	4-9	0-1
Legend Geeter F	28	7	3	4	3-5	1-2
TJ Nadeau G	26	9	6	1	3-8	2-5
Ayden Carter G	25	7	3	1	3-9	0-4
Xavier Istomin-Monroe C	15	6	2	0	2-2	0-0
Bench
London Maiden F	23	16	8	0	5-7	0-0
Lance Stone G	18	11	3	0	1-4	0-1
Jared Lary G	13	2	6	1	1-7	0-2
Tyler Spratt G	11	0	1	0	0-2	0-1
Nate Johnson G	7	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Ryan Kalambay F	3	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Keshawn Fisher G	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Je'kel Cotton, Zak Abdalla

NIA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Reggie Prudhomme G	29	11	3	4	4-9	2-5
Justin Hawkins F	29	10	2	2	4-6	0-1
Justin Page G	27	15	1	4	6-9	2-4
Josiah Sabino G	18	6	5	1	2-7	0-3
Will Shortt F	14	6	1	0	3-4	0-0
Bench
Vice Zanki F	28	9	2	2	3-9	1-7
Landon Williams G	17	0	3	0	0-2	0-1
Trenton Walters G	13	3	2	3	1-4	0-3
Kabeya Tshibangu C	9	0	2	0	0-1	0-0
Brian Griffith G	8	3	0	1	1-3	1-2
Drew Larson F	8	3	1	1	1-2	1-2

Did not play: AJ McBride, Gael Dalmau

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	DETM -1.5	DETM -0.4	NIA +1.1	L DETM covered
Total	142.5	146.9	Over 4.4	L Under
Projected score	—	DETM 73.7 · NIA 73.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	DETM -0.4	DETM -9.0
1H total	68.8	67
1H projected score	DETM 34.6 · NIA 34.2	DETM 38 · NIA 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DETM LWLWL	2-4	33%	2-3	0-1
NIA WWLLL	2-4	33%	1-0	1-4

Venue/role: DETM away, as favorite; NIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DETM OOUUO	4-2	67%	0-6
NIA UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DETMlast 6	0-6 0%	2-4 33%	4-2 67%
NIAlast 6	2-4 33%	2-4 33%	3-3 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

DETM 1–0 NIADETM leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · DETM 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 10, 2024-25	NIA 78 @ DETM 84	DETM -1.5	DETM W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Detroit Mercy

6 games played

Straight up

0-6

0% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −4.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-2

67% overs · avg +7.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-60%

L L L L L L

6 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L L W L W L

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-267%

O O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UIC	L 71-91	+9.5	L −10.5	142.5	O 162
Nov 7	@ND	L 70-102	+21.5	L −10.5	147.5	O 172
Nov 15	@TOL	L 83-90	+10.5	W +3.5	159.5	O 173
Nov 18	vsEMU	L 62-72	-1.5	L −11.5	157.5	U 134
Nov 21	@MSU	L 56-84	+30.5	W +2.5	149.5	U 140
Nov 23	@DEP	L 75-95	+19.5	L −0.5	151.5	O 170

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UIC

L 71-91

−10.5

L 70-102

−10.5

TOL

L 83-90

+3.5

EMU

L 62-72

−11.5

MSU

L 56-84

+2.5

DEP

L 75-95

−0.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UIC

L 71-91

+19.5

L 70-102

+24.5

TOL

L 83-90

+13.5

EMU

L 62-72

−23.5

MSU

L 56-84

−9.5

DEP

L 75-95

+18.5

over 4under 2avg +7.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Niagara

6 games played

Straight up

2-4

33% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −2.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-3

50% overs · avg −1.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-433%

L W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-433%

L W W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-350%

O U U O U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@DUQ	L 63-83	+17.5	L −2.5	139.5	O 146
Nov 8	@BING	W 67-59	+2.5	W +10.5	138.5	U 126
Nov 10	vsDSU	W 68-57	-5.5	W +5.5	137.5	U 125
Nov 17	@LEM	L 68-74	+2.5	L −3.5	138.5	O 142
Nov 21	@DUKE	L 42-100	+39.5	L −18.5	146.5	U 142
Nov 22	vsHOW	L 70-80	+4.5	L −5.5	138.5	O 150

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

−2.5

BING

W 67-59

+10.5

DSU

W 68-57

+5.5

LEM

L 68-74

−3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−18.5

HOW

L 70-80

−5.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −2.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

DUQ

L 63-83

+6.5

BING

W 67-59

−12.5

DSU

W 68-57

−12.5

LEM

L 68-74

+3.5

DUKE

L 42-100

−4.5

HOW

L 70-80

+11.5

over 3under 3avg −1.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Detroit Mercy @ Niagara

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Detroit Mercy

Niagara

Detroit Mercy

Niagara