Harvard Crimson at Marist Red Foxes: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 16, 5:00 PM ETMcCann Arena · at Marist

#136HARVHarvard56▲ winner

Final

#236MRSTMarist54final

Closing lineMRST -6.5✓ HARV covered by 8.5

Closing total130.5Under by 20.5

Season records: Harvard and Marist
HARV	This season	MRST
2-1	Record	1-1
1-2	ATS	2-0
1-2	O/U	0-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: HARV 65–69 MRST · ✗ MRST (65%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
HARV	23	33	56
MRST	24	30	54

1st half: HARV 23, MRST 24 (MRST by 1). The model had MRST by 2.5 and a total of 62.8 (actual 47).

Team stats

HARV		MRST
16-45 36%	Field goals	19-50 38%
6-16 38%	3-pointers	6-19 32%
18-23 78%	Free throws	10-15 67%
34 8 off	Rebounds	33 9 off
9	Assists	12
7	Steals	8
2	Blocks	9
15	Turnovers	15
13	Fouls	16
18	Points in paint	20
0	Fast-break points	2

Players

HARV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chandler Pigge G	37	14	7	1	5-16	3-5
Robert Hinton G	35	13	7	1	1-9	1-3
Ben Eisendrath G	35	6	3	2	2-5	0-1
Thomas Batties II F	30	5	2	4	2-4	1-3
Tey Barbour G	30	10	7	1	2-4	1-2
Bench
Kenan Parrish F	13	4	3	0	2-3	0-1
Frankie Mannino G	11	2	2	0	1-1	0-0
Luca Ace-Nasteski F	5	2	1	0	1-2	0-0
Xavier Nesbitt G	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Austin Hunt, Payton Pitts, Dutch Dowdell, Alex Touomou, Greg Cooper, Joseph Quartey, Ryan Sullivan, Avner Dror

MRST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jadin Collins-Roberts G	33	4	4	0	2-5	0-1
Jaden Daughtry F	28	3	6	5	0-5	0-1
Parby Kabamba F	24	17	5	0	7-8	3-4
Elijah Lewis G	24	11	2	3	3-7	0-1
Justin Menard G	24	5	1	1	2-4	1-3
Bench
Rhyjon Blackwell G	34	9	5	1	3-14	1-6
Myles Parker F	12	3	3	0	1-2	1-2
Jason Schofield C	10	2	3	2	1-2	0-0
Jordan Gabriel C	6	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Martin Kawa G	5	0	2	0	0-3	0-1

Did not play: Ricky McKenzie, Trace Salton, Antoni Vlogianitis, Tarik Watson

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MRST -6.5	MRST -4.4	HARV +2.1	W HARV covered
Total	130.5	134.0	Over 3.5	L Under
Projected score	—	HARV 64.8 · MRST 69.2

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MRST -2.5	MRST -1.0
1H total	62.8	47
1H projected score	HARV 30.2 · MRST 32.7	HARV 23 · MRST 24

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HARV LLW	1-2	33%	1-0	—
MRST WW	2-0	100%	—	—

Venue/role: HARV away, as underdog; MRST home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
HARV OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
MRST UU	0-2	0%	1-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HARVlast 3	2-1 67%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%
MRSTlast 2	1-1 50%	2-0 100%	0-2 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

HARV 1–0 MRSTHARV leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · HARV 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 4, 2024-25	MRST 66 @ HARV 79	HARV -2.5	HARV W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Harvard

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −4.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	vsUNH	W 86-75	-15.5	L −4.5	147.5	O 161
Nov 11	vsNE	L 60-77	-5.5	L −22.5	144.5	U 137
Nov 15	@ARMY	W 75-52	-6.5	W +16.5	146.5	U 127

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

−4.5

L 60-77

−22.5

ARMY

W 75-52

+16.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UNH

W 86-75

+13.5

L 60-77

−7.5

ARMY

W 75-52

−19.5

over 1under 2avg −4.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Marist

2 games played

Straight up

1-1

50% wins

Against the spread

2-0

100% covers · avg +14.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-2

0% overs · avg −9.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-0100%

W W

2 straight covers2 of 2 covered

Over / Under

0-20%

U U

2 straight unders0 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@XAV	L 62-66	+12.5	W +8.5	139.5	U 128
Nov 9	@DART	W 75-56	+1.5	W +20.5	138.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

+8.5

DART

W 75-56

+20.5

covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

XAV

L 62-66

−11.5

DART

W 75-56

−7.5

over 0under 2avg −9.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Harvard @ Marist

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Harvard

Marist

Harvard

Marist