Lipscomb Bisons at Belmont Bruins: Model Line and Edge

Wed, Nov 19, 8:30 PM ETCurb Event Center Arena · at Belmont

#214LIPLipscomb68final

Final

#138BELBelmont75▲ winner

Closing lineBEL -12.5✓ LIP covered by 5.5

Closing total158.5Under by 15.5

Season records: Lipscomb and Belmont
LIP	This season	BEL
0-3	Record	3-0
1-2	ATS	2-1
2-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: LIP 72–82 BEL · ✓ BEL (81%) won

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
LIP	24	44	68
BEL	25	50	75

1st half: LIP 24, BEL 25 (BEL by 1). The model had BEL by 5.9 and a total of 71.9 (actual 49).

Team stats

LIP		BEL
23-72 32%	Field goals	23-53 43%
13-45 29%	3-pointers	8-28 29%
9-10 90%	Free throws	21-29 72%
42 18 off	Rebounds	43 11 off
16	Assists	14
13	Steals	6
1	Blocks	3
19	Turnovers	22
23	Fouls	13
20	Points in paint	30
2	Fast-break points	8

Players

LIP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Mateo Esmeraldo G	31	12	8	6	3-6	2-4
Ross Candelino G	29	10	8	1	3-13	2-10
Grant Asman F	26	13	5	1	4-8	4-7
Charlie Williams C	24	10	2	1	4-10	2-5
Ethan Duncan G	19	12	1	0	4-15	2-11
Bench
Kellan Boylan F	16	2	2	1	1-2	0-1
Or Ashkenazi F	16	2	3	0	1-6	0-2
Titas Sargiunas F	15	2	2	1	1-7	0-3
Kennedy Okpara F	14	5	5	3	2-3	1-2
Cole Middleton F	10	0	2	2	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Josh Scott, Devyn Martin, Luke Jack, Luke Carter, Miles White, Logan Suber

BEL	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Sam Orme F	34	11	9	2	4-14	2-8
Tyler Lundblade G	31	18	4	1	4-10	4-10
Jabez Jenkins G	31	6	8	2	1-3	0-2
Drew Scharnowski F	27	15	10	1	6-8	0-0
Nic McClain G	27	18	3	6	6-10	2-5
Bench
Isaiah West G	13	2	0	1	1-3	0-1
Jack Smiley G	11	0	1	1	0-2	0-1
Brigham Rogers F	10	3	3	0	1-2	0-0
Eoin Dillon F	9	2	3	0	0-0	0-0
Win Miller G	6	0	0	0	0-1	0-1
Jake Dykstra G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Graydon Lemke, Keith Robbins, Cooper Haynes, Aidan Noyes

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BEL -12.5	BEL -10.0	LIP +2.5	W LIP covered
Total	158.5	153.4	Under 5.1	W Under
Projected score	—	LIP 71.7 · BEL 81.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BEL -5.9	BEL -1.0
1H total	71.9	49
1H projected score	LIP 33 · BEL 38.9	LIP 24 · BEL 25

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LIP LLW	1-2	33%	1-2	1-2
BEL WLW	2-1	67%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: LIP away, as underdog; BEL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
LIP OOU	2-1	67%	0-3
BEL UOU	1-2	33%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LIPlast 3	0-3 0%	1-2 33%	2-1 67%
BELlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

LIP 1–3 BELBEL leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · BEL has won the last 2 meetings · LIP 2-2 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Nov 12, 2024-25	BEL 80 @ LIP 79	LIP -5.5	BEL W
Dec 6, 2023-24	LIP 71 @ BEL 72	BEL -3.5	LIP W
Nov 14, 2022-23	BEL 75 @ LIP 77	LIP +2.5	LIP W
Dec 2, 2021-22	LIP 65 @ BEL 94	BEL -15	BEL W

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Lipscomb

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −9.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-1

67% overs · avg −0.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

1-233%

L L W

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-167%

O O U

2 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@VAN	L 61-105	+26.5	L −17.5	154.5	O 166
Nov 9	@MER	L 77-92	+3.5	L −11.5	157.5	O 169
Nov 11	@UNCA	L 64-69	+6.5	W +1.5	158.5	U 133

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

−17.5

MER

L 77-92

−11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

+1.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −9.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

VAN

L 61-105

+11.5

MER

L 77-92

+11.5

UNCA

L 64-69

−25.5

over 2under 1avg −0.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Belmont

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −7.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

U O U

1 of 3 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsAF	W 79-63	-15.5	W +0.5	144.5	U 142
Nov 8	vsTNST	W 87-79	-13.5	L −5.5	158.5	O 166
Nov 15	@ORU	W 83-60	-7.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 143

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

W 79-63

+0.5

TNST

W 87-79

−5.5

ORU

W 83-60

+15.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

W 79-63

−2.5

TNST

W 87-79

+7.5

ORU

W 83-60

−28.5

over 1under 2avg −7.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Lipscomb @ Belmont

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2025-26

Lipscomb

Belmont

Lipscomb

Belmont