LSU New Orleans Privateers at Pepperdine Waves: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 18, 9:00 PM ETFirestone Fieldhouse · at Pepperdine

Final

#172PEPPPepperdine90▲ winner

Closing linePEPP -5.5✓ PEPP covered by 5.5

Closing total157.5Over by 11.5

Season records: LSU N Orleans and Pepperdine
NOLA	This season	PEPP
2-1	Record	0-2
2-1	ATS	1-1
1-2	O/U	1-1

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: NOLA 77–80 PEPP · ✓ PEPP (61%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
NOLA	37	42	79
PEPP	45	45	90

1st half: NOLA 37, PEPP 45 (PEPP by 8). The model had PEPP by 1.8 and a total of 73.4 (actual 82).

Team stats

NOLA		PEPP
25-62 40%	Field goals	29-64 45%
12-29 41%	3-pointers	7-25 28%
17-24 71%	Free throws	25-28 89%
40 15 off	Rebounds	35 11 off
14	Assists	23
5	Steals	6
5	Blocks	3
17	Turnovers	6
21	Fouls	21
24	Points in paint	38
3	Fast-break points	7

Players

NOLA	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Coleton Benson G	36	17	3	6	4-13	4-10
Jakevion Buckley G	34	15	5	5	5-13	1-6
Panagiotis Pagonis F	32	17	5	2	5-10	3-6
MJ Thomas F	30	6	14	1	2-8	0-0
Kedrick Osby F	11	3	1	0	1-3	1-1
Bench
Churchill Abass F	17	9	4	0	4-6	0-0
Enzo Boudouma F	14	6	2	0	2-4	2-3
Jamal Chretien II G	9	2	0	0	1-2	0-1
TJ Cope G	8	1	0	0	0-1	0-0
Irish Coquia G	7	3	0	0	1-2	1-2
Mathok Majok F	2	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Vieux Sanneh, Eze Nwakamma, Grant Kemp, William Patterson Jr.

PEPP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Danilo Dozic C	38	21	2	1	6-13	4-7
Styles Phipps G	37	14	5	11	5-9	0-1
Javon Cooley G	35	23	7	3	5-13	1-7
Aaron Clark G	22	2	2	3	1-5	0-1
Yonatan Levy F	17	8	3	2	3-4	0-0
Bench
Luka Vudragovic G	17	10	1	1	4-10	2-8
Pavle Stosic F	17	6	6	0	2-5	0-1
Stefan Cicic C	6	4	2	0	2-3	0-0
Vladimir Sudar F	5	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
David Mager G	4	0	0	1	0-1	0-0
Nikola Radovanovic F	2	2	2	0	1-1	0-0

Did not play: Preston Phillips, Anto Balian, Ty Virgil, Yassine Gharram, Pasha Shemirani

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	PEPP -5.5	PEPP -3.2	NOLA +2.3	L PEPP covered
Total	157.5	156.7	Under 0.8	L Over
Projected score	—	NOLA 76.8 · PEPP 80

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	PEPP -1.8	PEPP -8.0
1H total	73.4	82
1H projected score	NOLA 35.8 · PEPP 37.6	NOLA 37 · PEPP 45

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NOLA WLW	2-1	67%	2-1	2-1
PEPP WL	1-1	50%	0-1	—

Venue/role: NOLA away, as underdog; PEPP home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
NOLA OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
PEPP UO	1-1	50%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NOLAlast 3	2-1 67%	2-1 67%	1-2 33%
PEPPlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	1-1 50%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

LSU N Orleans

3 games played

Straight up

2-1

67% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +14.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg −4.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-167%

W L W

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@TCU	W 78-74	+21.5	W +25.5	149.5	O 152
Nov 10	@LSU	L 58-93	+19.5	L −15.5	162.5	U 151
Nov 14	@TULN	W 85-63	+11.5	W +33.5	153.5	U 148

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+25.5

LSU

L 58-93

−15.5

TULN

W 85-63

+33.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +14.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TCU

W 78-74

+2.5

LSU

L 58-93

−11.5

TULN

W 85-63

−5.5

over 1under 2avg −4.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Pepperdine

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-1

50% overs · avg 0 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

W L

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-150%

U O

1 of 2 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	@UCLA	L 63-74	+29.5	W +18.5	152.5	U 137
Nov 15	vsUNCO	L 81-88	+1.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 169

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

+18.5

UNCO

L 81-88

−5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UCLA

L 63-74

−15.5

UNCO

L 81-88

+15.5

over 1under 1avg 0 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

LSU N Orleans @ Pepperdine

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

LSU N Orleans

Pepperdine

LSU N Orleans

Pepperdine