Tulane Green Wave vs Boston College Eagles: Model Line and Edge

Sun, Nov 23, 6:30 PM ETTD Arena · Neutral site

#130TULNTulane93▲ winner

Final

Closing lineBC -2.5✓ TULN covered by 5.5

Closing total140.5Over by 42.5

Season records: Tulane and Boston College
TULN	This season	BC
3-2	Record	3-3
1-4	ATS	2-4
3-2	O/U	2-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TULN 69–74 BC · ✗ BC (68%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	OT	T
TULN	39	44	10	93
BC	40	43	7	90

1st half: TULN 39, BC 40 (BC by 1). The model had BC by 3.0 and a total of 67.0 (actual 79).

Team stats

TULN		BC
31-60 52%	Field goals	26-63 41%
5-17 29%	3-pointers	10-27 37%
26-36 72%	Free throws	28-36 78%
37 7 off	Rebounds	37 11 off
9	Assists	11
5	Steals	3
2	Blocks	4
8	Turnovers	10
26	Fouls	25
48	Points in paint	28
8	Fast-break points	9

Players

TULN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Curtis Williams Jr. G	44	32	9	1	12-18	4-8
Rowan Brumbaugh G	44	27	7	5	7-16	1-4
Asher Woods G	29	2	1	1	0-4	0-1
Scotty Middleton F	24	4	1	1	2-2	0-0
Tyler Ringgold F	17	6	5	0	2-4	0-1
Bench
Percy Daniels C	23	8	7	1	4-5	0-0
Josiah Moore G	21	9	4	0	3-5	0-0
KJ Greene G	18	5	0	0	1-3	0-1
Davion Bradford C	5	0	1	0	0-3	0-2

Did not play: Luke Cronin, Luke Rasmussen, Jake Shapiro, Joseph Teich, Robert Moore, Vasilije Kuridza

BC	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Fred Payne G	41	15	6	4	4-14	1-5
Donald Hand Jr. G	40	26	4	3	8-19	2-9
Chase Forte G	39	22	1	3	7-11	5-8
Aidan Shaw F	36	8	10	1	3-6	0-0
Jayden Hastings F	18	4	2	0	1-2	0-0
Bench
Boden Kapke F	20	9	3	0	2-7	1-4
Marko Radunovic F	19	6	2	0	1-3	1-1
Luka Toews G	5	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Caleb Steger G	4	0	2	0	0-0	0-0
Kany Musungay F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jack Bailey, Jack DiDonna, Akbar Waheed III, Nick Petronio, Will Eggemeier, Jason Asemota

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	BC -2.5	BC -5.3	BC +2.8	L TULN covered
Total	140.5	142.9	Over 2.4	W Over
Projected score	—	TULN 68.8 · BC 74.1

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	BC -3.0	BC -1.0
1H total	67.0	79
1H projected score	TULN 32 · BC 35	TULN 39 · BC 40

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TULN WLLLL	1-4	20%	0-1	0-1
BC WLWLL	2-4	33%	0-1	1-3

Venue/role: TULN neutral site, as underdog; BC neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TULN OOUUO	3-2	60%	3-2
BC UUOUU	2-4	33%	3-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TULNlast 5	3-2 60%	1-4 20%	3-2 60%
BClast 6	3-3 50%	2-4 33%	2-4 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Tulane

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

1-4

20% covers · avg −9.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-2

60% overs · avg +2.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

1-420%

W L L L L

4 straight misses ATS0 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-260%

O O U U O

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsSAM	W 85-72	-7.5	W +5.5	154.5	O 157
Nov 8	vsTXST	W 79-71	-12.5	L −4.5	146.5	O 150
Nov 11	@UL	W 66-62	-5.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 128
Nov 14	vsNOLA	L 63-85	-11.5	L −33.5	153.5	U 148
Nov 21	vsUSU	L 75-96	+8.5	L −12.5	151.5	O 171

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+5.5

TXST

W 79-71

−4.5

W 66-62

−1.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−33.5

USU

L 75-96

−12.5

covered 1didn’t cover 4avg −9.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SAM

W 85-72

+2.5

TXST

W 79-71

+3.5

W 66-62

−7.5

NOLA

L 63-85

−5.5

USU

L 75-96

+19.5

over 3under 2avg +2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Boston College

6 games played

Straight up

3-3

50% wins

Against the spread

2-4

33% covers · avg −2.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-4

33% overs · avg −12.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-350%

L W L W W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-433%

L W L W L L

2 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

2-433%

O U U O U U

2 straight unders1 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@FAU	L 78-83	+1.5	L −3.5	148.5	O 161
Nov 6	vsCIT	W 76-47	-15.5	W +13.5	144.5	U 123
Nov 11	vsCCSU	L 59-60	-17.5	L −18.5	136.5	U 119
Nov 15	@TEM	W 76-71	+3.5	W +8.5	142.5	O 147
Nov 18	vsHAMP	W 63-52	-12.5	L −1.5	135.5	U 115
Nov 21	vsDAV	L 49-59	-1.5	L −11.5	140.5	U 108

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

FAU

L 78-83

−3.5

CIT

W 76-47

+13.5

CCSU

L 59-60

−18.5

TEM

W 76-71

+8.5

HAMP

W 63-52

−1.5

DAV

L 49-59

−11.5

covered 2didn’t cover 4avg −2.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

FAU

L 78-83

+12.5

CIT

W 76-47

−21.5

CCSU

L 59-60

−17.5

TEM

W 76-71

+4.5

HAMP

W 63-52

−20.5

DAV

L 49-59

−32.5

over 2under 4avg −12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Tulane vs Boston College

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Tulane

Boston College

Tulane

Boston College