UNLV Rebels vs Rutgers Scarlet Knights: Model Line and Edge

Thu, Nov 27, 4:30 PM ETMichelob ULTRA Arena · Neutral site

#98UNLVUNLV65final

Final

#62RUTGRutgers80▲ winner

Closing lineUNLV -4.5✓ RUTG covered by 19.5

Closing total153.5Under by 8.5

Season records: UNLV and Rutgers
UNLV	This season	RUTG
3-4	Record	4-3
3-4	ATS	2-5
6-1	O/U	4-3

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: UNLV 80–78 RUTG · ✗ UNLV (54%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
UNLV	39	26	65
RUTG	33	47	80

1st half: UNLV 39, RUTG 33 (UNLV by 6). The model had UNLV by 0.9 and a total of 74.0 (actual 72).

Team stats

UNLV		RUTG
25-63 40%	Field goals	24-57 42%
5-22 23%	3-pointers	4-16 25%
10-16 63%	Free throws	28-36 78%
33 10 off	Rebounds	45 14 off
14	Assists	10
5	Steals	5
5	Blocks	4
8	Turnovers	10
24	Fouls	16
38	Points in paint	30
7	Fast-break points	9

Players

UNLV	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dra Gibbs-Lawhorn G	35	10	3	5	5-14	0-5
Tyrin Jones F	31	13	4	2	6-11	0-0
Kimani Hamilton F	30	13	7	0	4-7	1-1
Issac Williamson G	25	6	1	3	2-8	0-3
Howie Fleming Jr. G	15	0	4	2	0-5	0-2
Bench
Naas Cunningham F	22	7	4	0	2-5	2-4
Al Green G	22	13	2	1	5-11	1-5
Walter Brown F	20	3	2	1	1-2	1-2

Did not play: Xavier Brumfield, Jalen Cunningham, Mason Abittan, Jacob Bannarbie, Myles Che, Emmanuel Stephen, Ladji Dembele

RUTG	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jamichael Davis G	32	6	4	6	2-4	0-0
Dylan Grant F	31	17	8	0	5-11	1-6
Tariq Francis G	29	11	2	2	3-7	1-3
Emmanuel Ogbole C	29	21	13	0	7-12	0-0
Denis Badalau F	10	0	0	0	0-3	0-1
Bench
Darren Buchanan Jr. G	21	15	4	1	5-9	2-3
Chris Nwuli F	18	6	4	1	1-5	0-1
Lino Mark G	13	2	3	0	0-3	0-0
Bryce Ruglass Dortch F	11	2	3	0	1-1	0-0
Harun Zrno G	6	0	0	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Baye Fall, Kaden Powers, Max Fradkin, Dorian Jones, Gevonte Ware

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	UNLV -4.5	UNLV -1.3	RUTG +3.2	W RUTG covered
Total	153.5	158.2	Over 4.7	L Under
Projected score	—	UNLV 79.7 · RUTG 78.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	UNLV -0.9	UNLV -6.0
1H total	74.0	72
1H projected score	UNLV 37.5 · RUTG 36.6	UNLV 39 · RUTG 33

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
UNLV LWWLL	3-4	43%	0-2	2-2
RUTG LLLLW	2-5	29%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: UNLV neutral site, as favorite; RUTG neutral site, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
UNLV OOOUO	6-1	86%	3-4
RUTG OOUOU	4-3	57%	4-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
UNLVlast 7	3-4 43%	3-4 43%	6-1 86%
RUTGlast 7	4-3 57%	2-5 29%	4-3 57%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

UNLV

7 games played

Straight up

3-4

43% wins

Against the spread

3-4

43% covers · avg −2.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

6-1

86% overs · avg +12.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-443%

L W L W W L L

2 straight losses2 of last 4 won

Against the spread

3-443%

L W L W W L L

2 straight misses ATS2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

6-186%

O O O O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsUTM	L 81-86	-16.5	L −21.5	146.5	O 167
Nov 8	vsUTC	W 101-69	-7.5	W +24.5	155.5	O 170
Nov 11	vsMONT	L 93-102	-10.5	L −19.5	157.5	O 195
Nov 16	@MEM	W 92-78	+9.5	W +23.5	163.5	O 170
Nov 20	vsJOES	W 99-85	-10.5	W +3.5	161.5	O 184
Nov 24	vsMD	L 67-74	+2.5	L −4.5	164.5	U 141
Nov 25	vsALA	L 76-115	+13.5	L −25.5	181.5	O 191

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

−21.5

UTC

W 101-69

+24.5

MONT

L 93-102

−19.5

MEM

W 92-78

+23.5

JOES

W 99-85

+3.5

L 67-74

−4.5

ALA

L 76-115

−25.5

covered 3didn’t cover 4avg −2.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UTM

L 81-86

+20.5

UTC

W 101-69

+14.5

MONT

L 93-102

+37.5

MEM

W 92-78

+6.5

JOES

W 99-85

+22.5

L 67-74

−23.5

ALA

L 76-115

+9.5

over 6under 1avg +12.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Rutgers

7 games played

Straight up

4-3

57% wins

Against the spread

2-5

29% covers · avg −6.9 pts vs the line

Over / Under

4-3

57% overs · avg +0.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

4-357%

W W W W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-529%

W L L L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

4-357%

U O O O U O U

2 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	vsRID	W 81-53	-18.5	W +9.5	139.5	U 134
Nov 10	vsME	W 72-60	-18.5	L −6.5	130.5	O 132
Nov 14	vsLEH	W 84-72	-18.5	L −6.5	136.5	O 156
Nov 18	vsAMER	W 80-71	-16.5	L −7.5	143.5	O 151
Nov 21	vsCCSU	L 54-67	-15.5	L −28.5	137.5	U 121
Nov 24	vsTENN	L 60-85	+14.5	L −10.5	141.5	O 145
Nov 25	vsND	L 63-68	+6.5	W +1.5	140.5	U 131

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

RID

W 81-53

+9.5

W 72-60

−6.5

LEH

W 84-72

−6.5

AMER

W 80-71

−7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−28.5

TENN

L 60-85

−10.5

L 63-68

+1.5

covered 2didn’t cover 5avg −6.9 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

RID

W 81-53

−5.5

W 72-60

+1.5

LEH

W 84-72

+19.5

AMER

W 80-71

+7.5

CCSU

L 54-67

−16.5

TENN

L 60-85

+3.5

L 63-68

−9.5

over 4under 3avg +0.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

UNLV vs Rutgers

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

UNLV

Rutgers

UNLV

Rutgers