Towson Tigers vs Liberty Flames: Model Line and Edge

Tue, Nov 25, 12:00 PM ETState Farm Field House · Neutral site

#165TOWTowson72▲ winner

Final

#160LIBLiberty69final

Closing lineLIB -6.5✓ TOW covered by 9.5

Closing total137.5Over by 3.5

Season records: Towson and Liberty
TOW	This season	LIB
3-2	Record	3-0
3-2	ATS	2-1
1-4	O/U	3-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: TOW 67–70 LIB · ✗ LIB (60%) lost

Loading the game…

Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
TOW	36	36	72
LIB	37	32	69

1st half: TOW 36, LIB 37 (LIB by 1). The model had LIB by 1.7 and a total of 64.0 (actual 73).

Team stats

TOW		LIB
29-58 50%	Field goals	27-59 46%
4-17 24%	3-pointers	7-30 23%
10-14 71%	Free throws	8-10 80%
39 12 off	Rebounds	25 6 off
10	Assists	10
4	Steals	5
8	Blocks	2
10	Turnovers	6
14	Fouls	13
36	Points in paint	36
12	Fast-break points	6

Players

TOW	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Dylan Williamson G	36	14	4	2	6-14	2-9
Tyler Tejada F	36	20	9	1	8-17	0-6
Tyler Schmidt G	23	8	2	2	3-3	2-2
Chike Ndefo G	18	4	4	0	2-3	0-0
Caleb Embeya F	17	0	8	2	0-1	0-0
Bench
Jack Doumbia Jr. F	23	15	3	1	5-11	0-0
Tyler Coleman F	21	9	5	0	4-6	0-0
Mor Seck C	13	0	0	0	0-1	0-0
Abdou Samb F	10	2	2	1	1-2	0-0
Jaiden Cole G	3	0	0	1	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jon Barton, Jaquan Womack, Brandon Holmes, Ryan Skerry, Ryan Conway

LIB	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Zach Cleveland F	39	12	8	7	6-9	0-1
Brett Decker Jr. G	35	13	5	0	5-14	1-8
Kaden Metheny G	34	16	1	1	6-12	4-10
Colin Porter G	34	8	0	1	3-9	2-6
JJ Harper G	33	14	7	1	5-8	0-2
Bench
Zander Carter G	8	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Josh Smith F	8	4	2	0	1-3	0-0
Zander Yates F	5	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
Ryan Jones Jr. F	4	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Brady Kester, Torr Sorensen, Isaiah Ihnen, Drew Grimes, TJ Drain, JC Shirer Jr.

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	LIB -6.5	LIB -3.0	TOW +3.5	W TOW covered
Total	137.5	136.5	Under 1.0	L Over
Projected score	—	TOW 66.7 · LIB 69.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	LIB -1.7	LIB -1.0
1H total	64.0	73
1H projected score	TOW 31.1 · LIB 32.8	TOW 36 · LIB 37

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
TOW WWLLW	3-2	60%	2-0	2-0
LIB WWL	2-1	67%	0-1	2-1

Venue/role: TOW neutral site, as underdog; LIB neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
TOW UUUOU	1-4	20%	3-2
LIB OOO	3-0	100%	3-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TOWlast 5	3-2 60%	3-2 60%	1-4 20%
LIBlast 3	3-0 100%	2-1 67%	3-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Towson

5 games played

Straight up

3-2

60% wins

Against the spread

3-2

60% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-4

20% overs · avg −18.1 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-260%

W L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

3-260%

W W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-420%

U U U O U

1 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	vsL-MD	W 67-56	-8.5	W +2.5	141.5	U 123
Nov 8	@HOU	L 48-65	+26.5	W +9.5	130.5	U 113
Nov 14	vsNORF	W 51-41	-13.5	L −3.5	138.5	U 92
Nov 18	@JMU	L 75-81	-3.5	L −9.5	140.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsURI	W 62-55	+2.5	W +9.5	140.5	U 117

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

+2.5

HOU

L 48-65

+9.5

NORF

W 51-41

−3.5

JMU

L 75-81

−9.5

URI

W 62-55

+9.5

covered 3didn’t cover 2avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

L-MD

W 67-56

−18.5

HOU

L 48-65

−17.5

NORF

W 51-41

−46.5

JMU

L 75-81

+15.5

URI

W 62-55

−23.5

over 1under 4avg −18.1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Liberty

3 games played

Straight up

3-0

100% wins

Against the spread

2-1

67% covers · avg +5.2 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-0

100% overs · avg +11.2 pts vs the total

Straight up

3-0100%

W W W

3 straight wins3 of 3 won

Against the spread

2-167%

W W L

2 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

3-0100%

O O O

3 straight overs3 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 7	vsCOFC	W 90-75	-9.5	W +5.5	145.5	O 165
Nov 9	vsFAU	W 88-68	-7.5	W +12.5	152.5	O 156
Nov 24	vsUVM	W 79-73	-8.5	L −2.5	141.5	O 152

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+5.5

FAU

W 88-68

+12.5

UVM

W 79-73

−2.5

covered 2didn’t cover 1avg +5.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

COFC

W 90-75

+19.5

FAU

W 88-68

+3.5

UVM

W 79-73

+10.5

over 3under 0avg +11.2 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Towson vs Liberty

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Towson

Liberty

Towson

Liberty