Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs Manhattan Jaspers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 9:30 PM ETStan Sheriff Center · Neutral site

Final

#330MANManhattan80▲ winner

Closing lineMAN -20.5✓ MVSU covered by 13.5

Closing total154.5Under by 1.5

Season records: Miss Valley St and Manhattan
MVSU	This season	MAN
0-4	Record	1-2
2-2	ATS	1-2
3-1	O/U	1-2

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: MVSU 69–87 MAN · ✓ MAN (94%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
MVSU	32	41	73
MAN	41	39	80

1st half: MVSU 32, MAN 41 (MAN by 9). The model had MAN by 10.3 and a total of 72.9 (actual 73).

Team stats

MVSU		MAN
29-55 53%	Field goals	22-48 46%
4-16 25%	3-pointers	10-27 37%
11-11 100%	Free throws	26-32 81%
22 8 off	Rebounds	28 13 off
9	Assists	16
8	Steals	9
2	Blocks	0
13	Turnovers	13
23	Fouls	13
24	Points in paint	24
7	Fast-break points	9

Players

MVSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Daniel Mayfield F	38	28	8	3	11-16	1-1
Lamont Sams F	34	16	5	2	6-10	2-6
Delkedric Holmes G	31	11	1	2	3-9	1-4
Mike James G	27	10	3	1	5-10	0-3
Patrick Punch G	24	2	2	1	1-4	0-2
Bench
Samuel Murray F	15	4	1	0	2-2	0-0
Mussa Mzein C	12	0	1	0	0-1	0-0
Chance Sutton F	11	2	0	0	1-1	0-0
Tyrone Iroghama G	8	0	0	0	0-2	0-0

Did not play: Derrick Singleton, X'Zaevion Barnett, Jonathan Pace, George Ivory III, Antonio Sisk

MAN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Devin Dinkins G	36	22	2	1	5-13	5-13
Jaden Winston G	36	14	6	3	2-7	1-4
Fraser Roxburgh F	35	19	4	1	6-10	2-4
Marko Ljubicic F	19	11	4	1	4-4	0-0
Erik Oliver-Bush G	16	2	2	5	0-2	0-1
Bench
Anthony Isaac Jr. F	23	2	2	2	1-2	0-0
Terrance Jones G	20	6	2	1	2-4	2-4
Quron Elliott G	14	4	3	2	2-6	0-1
Omari Moore G	1	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Asier Miguel, Nick Lukmann, Jameson Borodawka, Jaeden Robley, Will Sydnor, Louis Fairtlough, Jackson Delaney, Michael Lawlor, Aryan Arora, Brett Rumpel

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	MAN -20.5	MAN -17.4	MVSU +3.1	W MVSU covered
Total	154.5	155.6	Over 1.1	L Under
Projected score	—	MVSU 69.1 · MAN 86.5

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	MAN -10.3	MAN -9.0
1H total	72.9	73
1H projected score	MVSU 31.3 · MAN 41.6	MVSU 32 · MAN 41

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
MVSU LLWW	2-2	50%	1-0	2-2
MAN LWL	1-2	33%	1-0	—

Venue/role: MVSU neutral site, as underdog; MAN neutral site, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
MVSU OOUO	3-1	75%	0-4
MAN OUU	1-2	33%	1-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MVSUlast 4	0-4 0%	2-2 50%	3-1 75%
MANlast 3	1-2 33%	1-2 33%	1-2 33%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Miss Valley St

4 games played

Straight up

0-4

0% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg +1 pts vs the line

Over / Under

3-1

75% overs · avg +6.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-40%

L L L L

4 straight losses0 of last 4 won

Against the spread

2-250%

L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

3-175%

O O U O

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@UAB	L 55-106	+34.5	L −16.5	145.5	O 161
Nov 7	@MUR	L 60-108	+38.5	L −9.5	159.5	O 168
Nov 12	@HAW	L 56-88	+41.5	W +9.5	151.5	U 144
Nov 14	vsUTU	L 75-81	+26.5	W +20.5	145.5	O 156

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

−16.5

MUR

L 60-108

−9.5

HAW

L 56-88

+9.5

UTU

L 75-81

+20.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg +1 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

UAB

L 55-106

+15.5

MUR

L 60-108

+8.5

HAW

L 56-88

−7.5

UTU

L 75-81

+10.5

over 3under 1avg +6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Manhattan

3 games played

Straight up

1-2

33% wins

Against the spread

1-2

33% covers · avg −3.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

1-2

33% overs · avg +7.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-233%

L W L

1 of 3 coveredno streak

Over / Under

1-233%

O U U

2 straight unders1 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 9	@USC	L 83-114	+28.5	L −2.5	155.5	O 197
Nov 12	vsUTU	W 79-75	+2.5	W +6.5	158.5	U 154
Nov 14	@HAW	L 56-86	+15.5	L −14.5	156.5	U 142

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

USC

L 83-114

−2.5

UTU

W 79-75

+6.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

covered 1didn’t cover 2avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

USC

L 83-114

+41.5

UTU

W 79-75

−4.5

HAW

L 56-86

−14.5

over 1under 2avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Miss Valley St vs Manhattan

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Miss Valley St

Manhattan

Miss Valley St

Manhattan