St. Thomas Tommies at Southeast Missouri State Redhawks: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 3:00 PM ETShow Me Center · at SE Missouri

#212STMNSt Thomas84▲ winner

Final

Closing lineSTMN -2.5✓ STMN covered by 9.5

Closing total152.5Over by 3.5

Season records: St Thomas and SE Missouri
STMN	This season	SEMO
2-2	Record	0-2
1-3	ATS	1-1
2-2	O/U	2-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: STMN 76–77 SEMO · ✗ SEMO (53%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
STMN	41	43	84
SEMO	29	43	72

1st half: STMN 41, SEMO 29 (STMN by 12). The model had SEMO by 0.3 and a total of 71.5 (actual 70).

Team stats

STMN		SEMO
27-46 59%	Field goals	30-67 45%
8-18 44%	3-pointers	5-18 28%
22-26 85%	Free throws	7-12 58%
29 1 off	Rebounds	27 6 off
12	Assists	11
7	Steals	6
2	Blocks	2
16	Turnovers	13
15	Fouls	21
38	Points in paint	36
13	Fast-break points	7

Players

STMN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Nolan Minessale G	36	24	6	4	7-12	2-3
Nick Janowski G	29	10	5	1	3-8	1-4
Austin Herro G	29	10	5	5	4-4	0-0
Ben Oosterbaan F	21	2	4	1	1-3	0-1
Carter Bjerke F	9	2	1	1	1-2	0-1
Bench
Isaiah Johnson-Arigu F	25	21	4	0	5-6	2-3
Jermaine Coleman F	24	13	1	0	5-8	3-6
Ryan Lafferty G	15	0	3	0	0-0	0-0
Ryan Dufault G	12	2	0	0	1-3	0-0

Did not play: Tim Franks, Kyle Counts, Adam Tauer, Hayden Tibbits, Tommy Humphries Jr., Luka Momcilovic, Jack Tauer

SEMO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Braxton Stacker G	30	5	2	0	2-8	1-4
Luke Almodovar G	29	20	5	1	6-15	3-6
BJ Ward G	29	19	3	2	9-18	1-6
Brendan Terry F	22	14	3	2	7-11	0-0
Troy Cole Jr. G	16	3	1	0	1-4	0-1
Bench
Marqueas Bell G	30	11	10	5	5-10	0-0
PJ Farmer G	12	0	3	0	0-1	0-1
David Idada C	11	0	0	1	0-0	0-0
Landren Blocker G	9	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Blaize Sagna G	9	0	0	0	0-0	0-0
Elliot Lowndes F	3	0	0	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Trace Sadler, Saxton Hoepker, Jay Reynolds

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	STMN -2.5	SEMO -0.8	SEMO +3.3	L STMN covered
Total	152.5	152.6	Over 0.1	W Over
Projected score	—	STMN 75.9 · SEMO 76.7

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	SEMO -0.3	STMN -12.0
1H total	71.5	70
1H projected score	STMN 35.6 · SEMO 35.9	STMN 41 · SEMO 29

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
STMN LLLW	1-3	25%	0-2	1-1
SEMO LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: STMN away, as favorite; SEMO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
STMN OOUU	2-2	50%	2-2
SEMO OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
STMNlast 4	2-2 50%	1-3 25%	2-2 50%
SEMOlast 2	0-2 0%	1-1 50%	2-0 100%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

St Thomas

4 games played

Straight up

2-2

50% wins

Against the spread

1-3

25% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-2

50% overs · avg −1.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

2-250%

L W L W

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-250%

O O U U

2 straight unders2 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SMC	L 58-84	+13.5	L −12.5	141.5	O 142
Nov 8	vsARMY	W 83-76	-18.5	L −11.5	151.5	O 159
Nov 10	@WSU	L 71-81	+2.5	L −7.5	157.5	U 152
Nov 13	vsGB	W 80-61	-13.5	W +5.5	150.5	U 141

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

−12.5

ARMY

W 83-76

−11.5

WSU

L 71-81

−7.5

W 80-61

+5.5

covered 1didn’t cover 3avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SMC

L 58-84

+0.5

ARMY

W 83-76

+7.5

WSU

L 71-81

−5.5

W 80-61

−9.5

over 2under 2avg −1.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

SE Missouri

2 games played

Straight up

0-2

0% wins

Against the spread

1-1

50% covers · avg +7.5 pts vs the line

Over / Under

2-0

100% overs · avg +10.5 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-20%

L L

2 straight losses0 of 2 won

Against the spread

1-150%

L W

1 of 2 coveredno streak

Over / Under

2-0100%

O O

2 straight overs2 of 2 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@SLU	L 67-92	+19.5	L −5.5	153.5	O 159
Nov 7	@MIZ	L 84-89	+25.5	W +20.5	157.5	O 173

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

−5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+20.5

covered 1didn’t cover 1avg +7.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

SLU

L 67-92

+5.5

MIZ

L 84-89

+15.5

over 2under 0avg +10.5 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

St Thomas @ SE Missouri

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

St Thomas

SE Missouri

St Thomas

SE Missouri