University Credit Union Pavilion · at Saint Mary's
Closing line
SMC -17.5✓ SMC covered by 12.5
SMC -17.5✓ SMC covered by 12.5Closing total144.5Over by 5.5
 OHIO | This season | SMC |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | Record | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | ATS | 2-0 |
| 1-1 | O/U | 2-0 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: OHIO 67–81 SMC · ✓ SMC (89%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIO | 27 | 33 | 60 |
| SMC | 45 | 45 | 90 |
1st half: OHIO 27, SMC 45 (SMC by 18). The model had SMC by 8.4 and a total of 69.3 (actual 72).
Team stats
| OHIO | SMC | |
|---|---|---|
| 24-64 38% | Field goals | 31-62 50% |
| 6-24 25% | 3-pointers | 11-22 50% |
| 6-7 86% | Free throws | 17-22 77% |
| 29 11 off | Rebounds | 40 13 off |
| 12 | Assists | 22 |
| 2 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 5 |
| 14 | Turnovers | 9 |
| 15 | Fouls | 13 |
| 24 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 5 | Fast-break points | 7 |
Players
| OHIO | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ajay Sheldon G | 33 | 3 | 6 | 6 | 1-7 | 1-6 |
| Jackson Paveletzke G | 30 | 19 | 3 | 4 | 7-13 | 3-3 |
| Javan Simmons F | 30 | 12 | 3 | 0 | 4-12 | 2-7 |
| JJ Kelly G | 28 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 2-5 | 0-0 |
| Aidan Hadaway F | 26 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 5-12 | 0-4 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Kiir Kuany F | 20 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Jesse Burris G | 16 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1-7 | 0-2 |
| Ayden Evans F | 13 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 3-5 | 0-1 |
| Jordan Fisher F | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Chase Boals, Elijah Elliott, Dior Conners, Jalen Breath, Zay Mosley, Carter Reese
| SMC | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrew McKeever C | 28 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 2-8 | 0-0 |
| Paulius Murauskas F | 27 | 14 | 4 | 5 | 3-7 | 0-2 |
| Mikey Lewis G | 25 | 14 | 3 | 5 | 5-11 | 4-7 |
| Joshua Dent G | 25 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Kevin Gad F | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Liam Campbell G | 21 | 20 | 3 | 1 | 8-10 | 3-5 |
| Dillan Shaw G | 17 | 8 | 6 | 1 | 3-7 | 1-3 |
| Tony Duckett G | 13 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 2-5 | 1-2 |
| Rory Hawke G | 10 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Harry Wessels C | 9 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Mantas Juzenas G | 6 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Cade Bennett G | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Oliver Faubert F | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Trent MacLean, Jazz Gardner
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketSMC -17.5
ModelSMC -14.1
Model edgeOHIO +3.4
L SMC covered
Total
Market144.5
Model147.9
Model edgeOver 3.4
W Over
Projected score
OHIO 66.9 · SMC 81
OHIO 60 · SMC 90
Win probability
SMC 89%
1st half
Spread
SMC -8.4
SMC -18.0
Total
69.3
72 points
Projected score
OHIO 30.5 · SMC 38.8
OHIO 27 · SMC 45
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenSMC -18.5
1 → OHIO
CloseSMC -17.5
1 pt toward OHIO
Total
Open144.5
no move
Close144.5
No change since the open
Moneyline
OHIO +1300 · SMC -4000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened SMC -18.5 · closed SMC -17.5 · moved 1 toward OHIOmodel SMC -14
model SMC -14
Opened 144.5 · unchangedmodel 148
model 148
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OHIOlast 2 | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% | 1-1 50% |
| SMClast 2 | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Ohio
2 games played
Straight up
1-1
50% wins
Against the spread
1-1
50% covers · avg −2.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg −3.5 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
ARST
ARSTL 85-89
−7.5
6
vs
ILST
ILSTW 72-68
+2.5
covered 1didn’t cover 1avg −2.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARST
ARSTL 85-89
+14.5
6
vsILST
ILSTW 72-68
−21.5
over 1under 1avg −3.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Saint Mary's
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-0
100% covers · avg +9 pts vs the line
Over / Under
2-0
100% overs · avg +4 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
STMN
STMNW 84-58
+12.5
7
vs
UTC
UTCW 87-66
+5.5
covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +9 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsSTMN
STMNW 84-58
+0.5
7
vsUTC
UTCW 87-66
+7.5
over 2under 0avg +4 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Ohio
1-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Mid-American Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Illinois St72–68
- Lvs Arkansas St85–89
5 days since their last game.
Saint Mary's
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · West Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Chattanooga87–66
- Wvs St Thomas84–58
4 days since their last game.