Arkansas State Red Wolves at Ohio Bobcats: Model Line and Edge

Mon, Nov 3, 7:00 PM ETConvocation Center (OH) · at Ohio

#171ARSTArkansas St89▲ winner

Final

#128OHIOOhio85final

Closing lineOHIO -3.5✓ ARST covered by 7.5

Closing total159.5Over by 14.5

Season records: Arkansas St and Ohio
ARST	This season	OHIO
0-0	Record	0-0
0-0	ATS	0-0
0-0	O/U	0-0

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: ARST 76–77 OHIO · ✗ OHIO (53%) lost

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
ARST	32	57	89
OHIO	39	46	85

1st half: ARST 32, OHIO 39 (OHIO by 7). The model had OHIO by 0.3 and a total of 71.5 (actual 71).

Team stats

ARST		OHIO
27-56 48%	Field goals	31-63 49%
10-27 37%	3-pointers	8-26 31%
25-28 89%	Free throws	15-22 68%
41 13 off	Rebounds	25 7 off
13	Assists	11
6	Steals	4
2	Blocks	1
18	Turnovers	10
27	Fouls	19
34	Points in paint	42
10	Fast-break points	7

Players

ARST	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Chandler Jackson G	32	21	8	5	7-11	1-2
Christian Harmon G	29	0	4	3	0-10	0-7
Chudi Dioramma F	23	2	5	0	1-4	0-0
Matt Hayman G	20	7	0	4	2-4	0-2
Jalen Hampton G	19	7	5	0	3-3	0-0
Bench
Joey Chammaa G	26	21	4	1	5-11	4-7
Jaxon Ellingsworth F	20	14	6	0	3-4	2-3
Aly Tounkara F	16	2	5	0	1-1	0-0
T.J. Caldwell G	11	10	2	0	3-5	2-4
Royal Blue Smith G	4	5	0	0	2-3	1-2

Did not play: Fredy-Salam Sylla, Tim Matthews, Weston Honeycutt, CJ Geathers, Grayson Bennett

OHIO	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Jackson Paveletzke G	39	16	1	2	5-13	0-4
Ajay Sheldon G	36	7	4	2	2-8	2-7
Aidan Hadaway F	35	28	6	3	12-16	3-6
Elijah Elliott G	24	6	1	2	3-5	0-0
Javan Simmons F	24	14	4	0	4-9	1-1
Bench
Dior Conners G	17	8	1	1	2-6	2-6
Jalen Breath F	16	6	2	1	3-4	0-0
Kiir Kuany F	5	0	0	0	0-2	0-2
JJ Kelly G	4	0	1	0	0-0	0-0

Did not play: Jordan Fisher, Carter Reese, Zay Mosley, Jesse Burris, Chase Boals, Ayden Evans

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	OHIO -3.5	OHIO -0.8	ARST +2.7	W ARST covered
Total	159.5	152.8	Under 6.7	L Over
Projected score	—	ARST 76 · OHIO 76.8

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	OHIO -0.3	OHIO -7.0
1H total	71.5	71
1H projected score	ARST 35.6 · OHIO 35.9	ARST 32 · OHIO 39

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

Showing 2024-25 until both teams have played this season.

ATS

2024-25 season

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARST LLLWW	19-16	54%	10-4	5-3
OHIO LWLLL	12-19	39%	8-6	8-16

Venue/role: ARST away, as underdog; OHIO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

2024-25 season

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARST OOOOU	17-18	49%	24-11
OHIO UUOOO	20-11	65%	15-16

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2024-25

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARST	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
OHIO	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Since 2021-22

ARST 1–0 OHIOARST leads · 1 game since 2021-22 · ARST 1-0 ATS

Date	Result	Line	Covered
Feb 10, 2023-24	OHIO 87 @ ARST 100	ARST -2.5	ARST W

ATS History · 2024-25

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Arkansas St

35 games played

Straight up

24-11

69% wins

Against the spread

19-16

54% covers · avg +1.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

17-18

49% overs · avg +0.3 pts vs the total

Straight up

24-1169%

W L W W W L L W W W W W W L L W W W W W W W L L W L L W W W W W L W L

2 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

19-1654%

L W W L L L L L W L W W W L L W W W W W W W L L W L L W W W L L L W W

2 straight covers2 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

17-1849%

O U U U O O U U O O O O U U U O U U U U U O U O O U U O U O O O O O U

3 of last 4 overno streak

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	vsAKR	W 80-75	-5.5	L −0.5	148.5	O 155
Nov 8	@ALA	L 79-88	+24.5	W +15.5	171.5	U 167
Nov 12	vsLR	W 80-63	-14.5	W +2.5	157.5	U 143
Nov 16	vsSFA	W 59-49	-10.5	L −0.5	148.5	U 108
Nov 29	vsINST	W 86-81	-8.5	L −3.5	156.5	O 167
Nov 30	vsRICE	L 67-75	-8.5	L −16.5	141.5	O 142
Dec 1	vsHOF	L 66-68	-6.5	L −8.5	140.5	U 134
Dec 5	vsJKST	W 66-64	-16.5	L −14.5	148.5	U 130
Dec 8	@MEM	W 85-72	+11.5	W +24.5	152.5	O 157
Dec 12	vsUTA	W 83-79	-8.5	L −4.5	157.5	O 162
Dec 15	@UAB	W 98-89	+3.5	W +12.5	160.5	O 187
Dec 21	vsCCU	W 97-67	-14.5	W +15.5	141.5	O 164
Jan 2	@ODU	W 78-59	-10.5	W +8.5	153.5	U 137
Jan 4	@JMU	L 62-67	+0.5	L −4.5	148.5	U 129
Jan 9	@USA	L 62-76	+0.5	L −13.5	139.5	U 138
Jan 11	@TROY	W 84-78	+2.5	W +8.5	144.5	O 162
Jan 16	vsUL	W 83-63	-16.5	W +3.5	148.5	U 146
Jan 18	vsGAST	W 85-59	-16.5	W +9.5	154.5	U 144
Jan 23	vsAPP	W 65-55	-7.5	W +2.5	138.5	U 120
Jan 25	vsTXST	W 80-65	-10.5	W +4.5	150.5	U 145
Jan 29	@USM	W 81-68	-9.5	W +3.5	152.5	U 149
Feb 1	@TXST	W 85-74	-5.5	W +5.5	149.5	O 159
Feb 5	@MRSH	L 72-77	-2.5	L −7.5	153.5	U 149
Feb 8	@KENT	L 75-76	+0.5	L −0.5	141.5	O 151
Feb 12	vsUSM	W 101-67	-15.5	W +18.5	154.5	O 168
Feb 15	vsTROY	L 70-71	-6.5	L −7.5	145.5	U 141
Feb 19	vsUSA	L 56-60	-7.5	L −11.5	143.5	U 116
Feb 22	vsULM	W 95-70	-22.5	W +2.5	147.5	O 165
Feb 26	@UL	W 83-64	-11.5	W +7.5	148.5	U 147
Feb 28	@ULM	W 94-67	-17.5	W +9.5	151.5	O 161
Mar 8	vsMRSH	W 77-74	-8.5	L −5.5	149.5	O 151
Mar 9	vsUSA	W 74-71	-3.5	L −0.5	137.5	O 145
Mar 10	vsTROY	L 81-94	-2.5	L −15.5	142.5	O 175
Mar 18	vsSLU	W 103-78	-5.5	W +19.5	154.5	O 181
Mar 23	@UNT	L 63-65	+3.5	W +1.5	137.5	U 128

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

AKR

W 80-75

−0.5

ALA

L 79-88

+15.5

W 80-63

+2.5

SFA

W 59-49

−0.5

INST

W 86-81

−3.5

RICE

L 67-75

−16.5

HOF

L 66-68

−8.5

JKST

W 66-64

−14.5

MEM

W 85-72

+24.5

UTA

W 83-79

−4.5

UAB

W 98-89

+12.5

CCU

W 97-67

+15.5

ODU

W 78-59

+8.5

JMU

L 62-67

−4.5

USA

L 62-76

−13.5

TROY

W 84-78

+8.5

W 83-63

+3.5

GAST

W 85-59

+9.5

APP

W 65-55

+2.5

TXST

W 80-65

+4.5

USM

W 81-68

+3.5

TXST

W 85-74

+5.5

MRSH

L 72-77

−7.5

KENT

L 75-76

−0.5

USM

W 101-67

+18.5

TROY

L 70-71

−7.5

USA

L 56-60

−11.5

ULM

W 95-70

+2.5

W 83-64

+7.5

ULM

W 94-67

+9.5

MRSH

W 77-74

−5.5

USA

W 74-71

−0.5

TROY

L 81-94

−15.5

SLU

W 103-78

+19.5

UNT

L 63-65

+1.5

covered 19didn’t cover 16avg +1.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

AKR

W 80-75

+6.5

ALA

L 79-88

−4.5

W 80-63

−14.5

SFA

W 59-49

−40.5

INST

W 86-81

+10.5

RICE

L 67-75

+0.5

HOF

L 66-68

−6.5

JKST

W 66-64

−18.5

MEM

W 85-72

+4.5

UTA

W 83-79

+4.5

UAB

W 98-89

+26.5

CCU

W 97-67

+22.5

ODU

W 78-59

−16.5

JMU

L 62-67

−19.5

USA

L 62-76

−1.5

TROY

W 84-78

+17.5

W 83-63

−2.5

GAST

W 85-59

−10.5

APP

W 65-55

−18.5

TXST

W 80-65

−5.5

USM

W 81-68

−3.5

TXST

W 85-74

+9.5

MRSH

L 72-77

−4.5

KENT

L 75-76

+9.5

USM

W 101-67

+13.5

TROY

L 70-71

−4.5

USA

L 56-60

−27.5

ULM

W 95-70

+17.5

W 83-64

−1.5

ULM

W 94-67

+9.5

MRSH

W 77-74

+1.5

USA

W 74-71

+7.5

TROY

L 81-94

+32.5

SLU

W 103-78

+26.5

UNT

L 63-65

−9.5

over 17under 18avg +0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Ohio

31 games played

Straight up

15-16

48% wins

Against the spread

12-19

39% covers · avg −2.7 pts vs the line

Over / Under

20-11

65% overs · avg +3.4 pts vs the total

Straight up

15-1648%

L W L L L W L W W L W W W W W L L W L L W L W L W W L W L L L

3 straight losses1 of last 4 won

Against the spread

12-1939%

L L L L L W L W L L W L L W W L L W L W W L W W L W L W L L L

3 straight misses ATS1 of last 4 covered

Over / Under

20-1165%

O U O O O O U O O U U U O O O O O U O U O U O O O U U U O O O

3 straight overs3 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 4	@JMU	L 78-88	+3.5	L −6.5	149.5	O 166
Nov 9	vsUNCA	W 82-76	-9.5	L −3.5	158.5	U 158
Nov 12	@ILST	L 75-85	-3.5	L −13.5	146.5	O 160
Nov 15	@MEM	L 70-94	+12.5	L −11.5	161.5	O 164
Nov 21	vsMTSU	L 81-83	-1.5	L −3.5	146.5	O 164
Nov 22	vsPORT	W 85-73	-7.5	W +4.5	149.5	O 158
Nov 24	vsTXST	L 65-74	-2.5	L −11.5	145.5	U 139
Nov 30	vsRMU	W 84-68	-10.5	W +5.5	146.5	O 152
Dec 7	vsMORE	W 88-76	-13.5	L −1.5	145.5	O 164
Dec 14	@MRSH	L 70-79	-1.5	L −10.5	155.5	U 149
Dec 18	vsAPSU	W 78-58	-13.5	W +6.5	141.5	U 136
Jan 4	@CMU	W 57-55	-4.5	L −2.5	148.5	U 112
Jan 7	@BUF	W 88-79	-12.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 167
Jan 11	vsNIU	W 108-70	-19.5	W +18.5	149.5	O 178
Jan 14	vsBALL	W 86-71	-8.5	W +6.5	151.5	O 157
Jan 17	@AKR	L 80-92	+3.5	L −8.5	163.5	O 172
Jan 21	@EMU	L 87-94	-8.5	L −15.5	154.5	O 181
Jan 24	vsKENT	W 61-59	+1.5	W +3.5	143.5	U 120
Jan 28	vsTOL	L 83-86	-3.5	L −6.5	162.5	O 169
Feb 1	@M-OH	L 69-73	+5.5	W +1.5	161.5	U 142
Feb 4	vsWMU	W 94-69	-10.5	W +14.5	153.5	O 163
Feb 8	vsAPP	L 59-72	-4.5	L −17.5	142.5	U 131
Feb 11	@BGSU	W 86-81	-4.5	W +0.5	155.5	O 167
Feb 14	@KENT	L 75-76	+4.5	W +3.5	147.5	O 151
Feb 18	vsCMU	W 84-82	-5.5	L −3.5	153.5	O 166
Feb 22	vsAKR	W 84-67	+1.5	W +18.5	165.5	U 151
Feb 25	@WMU	L 73-82	-6.5	L −15.5	156.5	U 155
Mar 1	vsM-OH	W 75-66	-6.5	W +2.5	159.5	U 141
Mar 4	vsEMU	L 79-83	-8.5	L −12.5	153.5	O 162
Mar 7	@TOL	L 82-96	-1.5	L −15.5	161.5	O 178
Mar 13	vsTOL	L 85-90	-2.5	L −7.5	159.5	O 175

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

JMU

L 78-88

−6.5

UNCA

W 82-76

−3.5

ILST

L 75-85

−13.5

MEM

L 70-94

−11.5

MTSU

L 81-83

−3.5

PORT

W 85-73

+4.5

TXST

L 65-74

−11.5

RMU

W 84-68

+5.5

W 88-76

−1.5

MRSH

L 70-79

−10.5

APSU

W 78-58

+6.5

CMU

W 57-55

−2.5

BUF

W 88-79

−3.5

NIU

W 108-70

+18.5

BALL

W 86-71

+6.5

AKR

L 80-92

−8.5

EMU

L 87-94

−15.5

KENT

W 61-59

+3.5

TOL

L 83-86

−6.5

M-OH

L 69-73

+1.5

WMU

W 94-69

+14.5

APP

L 59-72

−17.5

BGSU

W 86-81

+0.5

KENT

L 75-76

+3.5

CMU

W 84-82

−3.5

AKR

W 84-67

+18.5

WMU

L 73-82

−15.5

M-OH

W 75-66

+2.5

EMU

L 79-83

−12.5

TOL

L 82-96

−15.5

TOL

L 85-90

−7.5

covered 12didn’t cover 19avg −2.7 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

JMU

L 78-88

+16.5

UNCA

W 82-76

−0.5

ILST

L 75-85

+13.5

MEM

L 70-94

+2.5

MTSU

L 81-83

+17.5

PORT

W 85-73

+8.5

TXST

L 65-74

−6.5

RMU

W 84-68

+5.5

W 88-76

+18.5

MRSH

L 70-79

−6.5

APSU

W 78-58

−5.5

CMU

W 57-55

−36.5

BUF

W 88-79

+13.5

NIU

W 108-70

+28.5

BALL

W 86-71

+5.5

AKR

L 80-92

+8.5

EMU

L 87-94

+26.5

KENT

W 61-59

−23.5

TOL

L 83-86

+6.5

M-OH

L 69-73

−19.5

WMU

W 94-69

+9.5

APP

L 59-72

−11.5

BGSU

W 86-81

+11.5

KENT

L 75-76

+3.5

CMU

W 84-82

+12.5

AKR

W 84-67

−14.5

WMU

L 73-82

−1.5

M-OH

W 75-66

−18.5

EMU

L 79-83

+8.5

TOL

L 82-96

+16.5

TOL

L 85-90

+15.5

over 20under 11avg +3.4 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Arkansas St @ Ohio

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

Recent meetings

ATS History · 2024-25

Arkansas St

Ohio

Arkansas St

Ohio