Delaware State Hornets at New Haven Chargers: Model Line and Edge

Sat, Nov 15, 1:00 PM ETJeffery P. Hazell Athletics Center · at New Haven

Final

#355NHVNNew Haven65▲ winner

Closing lineNHVN -1.5✓ NHVN covered by 11.5

Closing total130.5Under by 13.5

Season records: Delaware St and New Haven
DSU	This season	NHVN
0-3	Record	1-3
0-3	ATS	2-2
0-3	O/U	0-4

ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders

Model before tip-off: DSU 66–69 NHVN · ✓ NHVN (61%) won

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Box score

Score by half

	1H	2H	T
DSU	22	30	52
NHVN	30	35	65

1st half: DSU 22, NHVN 30 (NHVN by 8). The model had NHVN by 1.7 and a total of 63.6 (actual 52).

Team stats

DSU		NHVN
20-57 35%	Field goals	22-47 47%
5-19 26%	3-pointers	6-22 27%
7-10 70%	Free throws	15-20 75%
26 6 off	Rebounds	41 8 off
6	Assists	11
10	Steals	8
0	Blocks	1
11	Turnovers	17
18	Fouls	11
24	Points in paint	28
14	Fast-break points	6

Players

DSU	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Ponce James G	31	13	3	0	5-17	1-6
Zion Bethea G	25	11	3	0	3-10	3-6
Rahmir Moore G	21	2	4	2	1-5	0-1
Bessanty Saragba F	16	1	1	0	0-0	0-0
Ademar Santos F	14	2	1	1	1-3	0-1
Bench
Miles Webb F	24	10	3	0	4-6	1-2
Corey Perkins G	22	4	1	1	2-4	0-1
Kareem Watson F	22	7	6	1	3-9	0-0
Dean Shepherd G	10	2	1	0	1-1	0-0
Jalen St Clair G	9	0	1	1	0-0	0-0
John Clemmons G	6	0	1	0	0-2	0-2

Did not play: Camian Shell, Muazibini Adamu, Cyril Obasogie, Theodore Pendergrass III

NHVN	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	FG	3P
Najimi George G	35	16	1	2	4-7	3-4
Jabri Fitzpatrick G	34	18	9	2	5-10	1-4
Andre Pasha F	32	6	9	2	3-6	0-2
Stefano Faloppa F	31	11	8	0	4-8	1-3
Maison Adeleye G	19	3	3	2	1-3	0-2
Bench
Kheni Briggs G	17	7	3	1	3-7	1-5
Zoumana Traore F	11	0	2	0	0-2	0-1
Vere Anthony G	10	2	1	2	1-1	0-0
Tristan Burth C	8	2	2	0	1-2	0-0
Teshaun Steele F	3	0	0	0	0-1	0-1

Did not play: Jagger Bascombe, Matiss Ogle, Kyle Kearson, Dominick LaDuca, John Oladipo, Timothy Coleman, Nathan Narcisse, Aidan Losiewicz, Owen Hotaling, Dior Kennedy, Justice Hanna

Model vs market

	Market	Model	Model edge	Result
Spread	NHVN -1.5	NHVN -3.1	NHVN +1.6	W NHVN covered
Total	130.5	135.7	Over 5.2	L Under
Projected score	—	DSU 66.3 · NHVN 69.4

1st-half model

1st-half slate ›

	Model	Actual
1H spread	NHVN -1.7	NHVN -8.0
1H total	63.6	52
1H projected score	DSU 30.9 · NHVN 32.7	DSU 22 · NHVN 30

The 1st-half model is fitted from the full-game model and past halves. ESPN has no 1st-half lines for college games, so there is no market to compare it with.

ATS

2025-26, records before tip-off

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DSU LLL	0-3	0%	0-3	0-3
NHVN WLLW	2-2	50%	0-2	—

Venue/role: DSU away, as underdog; NHVN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before tip-off

	O-U	Over %	SU
DSU UUU	0-3	0%	0-3
NHVN UUUU	0-4	0%	1-3

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Tap for the score and line.

Last 10 games

2025-26, before tip-off

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DSUlast 3	0-3 0%	0-3 0%	0-3 0%
NHVNlast 4	1-3 25%	2-2 50%	0-4 0%

Wins-losses (pushes last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

ATS History · 2025-26

WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total

Delaware St

3 games played

Straight up

0-3

0% wins

Against the spread

0-3

0% covers · avg −6.8 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-3

0% overs · avg −16.8 pts vs the total

Straight up

0-30%

L L L

3 straight losses0 of 3 won

Against the spread

0-30%

L L L

3 straight misses ATS0 of 3 covered

Over / Under

0-30%

U U U

3 straight unders0 of 3 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 5	@TEM	L 65-83	+16.5	L −1.5	154.5	U 148
Nov 8	@SYR	L 43-83	+26.5	L −13.5	157.5	U 126
Nov 10	@NIA	L 57-68	+5.5	L −5.5	137.5	U 125

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−1.5

SYR

L 43-83

−13.5

NIA

L 57-68

−5.5

covered 0didn’t cover 3avg −6.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

TEM

L 65-83

−6.5

SYR

L 43-83

−31.5

NIA

L 57-68

−12.5

over 0under 3avg −16.8 ptslonger = bigger margin

New Haven

4 games played

Straight up

1-3

25% wins

Against the spread

2-2

50% covers · avg −0.3 pts vs the line

Over / Under

0-4

0% overs · avg −13 pts vs the total

Straight up

1-325%

L L L W

1 of last 4 wonno streak

Against the spread

2-250%

W L L W

2 of last 4 coveredno streak

Over / Under

0-40%

U U U U

4 straight unders0 of last 4 over

Game by game: lines, results and totals

TableATSO/U

Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total

Date	Opp	Result	Line	ATS	Total	O/U
Nov 3	@CONN	L 55-79	+42.5	W +18.5	145.5	U 134
Nov 7	vsCOLU	L 53-71	+7.5	L −10.5	148.5	U 124
Nov 8	vsPSU	L 43-87	+18.5	L −25.5	143.5	U 130
Nov 10	@UML	W 73-67	+10.5	W +16.5	142.5	U 140

Day

Opp

Result

MissedCovered

Margin

CONN

L 55-79

+18.5

COLU

L 53-71

−10.5

PSU

L 43-87

−25.5

UML

W 73-67

+16.5

covered 2didn’t cover 2avg −0.3 ptslonger = bigger margin

Day

Opp

Result

UnderOver

Margin

CONN

L 55-79

−11.5

COLU

L 53-71

−24.5

PSU

L 43-87

−13.5

UML

W 73-67

−2.5

over 0under 4avg −13 ptslonger = bigger margin

Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.

Delaware St @ New Haven

Box score

Team stats

Players

Market

Model vs market

1st-half model

ATS

Totals

Last 10 games

ATS History · 2025-26

Delaware St

New Haven

Delaware St

New Haven