Stephen C. O'Connell Center · at Florida
Closing line
FLA -17.5✓ FSU covered by 15.5
FLA -17.5✓ FSU covered by 15.5Closing total180.5Under by 26.5
 FSU | This season | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| 2-0 | Record | 1-1 |
| 2-0 | ATS | 0-2 |
| 1-1 | O/U | 1-1 |
ATS = covered-didn’t-push · O/U = overs-unders
Model before tip-off: FSU 74–94 FLA · ✓ FLA (96%) won
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Box score
Score by half
| 1H | 2H | T | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSU | 40 | 36 | 76 |
| FLA | 37 | 41 | 78 |
1st half: FSU 40, FLA 37 (FSU by 3). The model had FLA by 11.8 and a total of 78.5 (actual 77).
Team stats
| FSU | FLA | |
|---|---|---|
| 23-68 34% | Field goals | 25-64 39% |
| 9-34 26% | 3-pointers | 6-31 19% |
| 21-25 84% | Free throws | 22-32 69% |
| 36 8 off | Rebounds | 58 17 off |
| 7 | Assists | 15 |
| 9 | Steals | 6 |
| 3 | Blocks | 8 |
| 10 | Turnovers | 18 |
| 25 | Fouls | 19 |
| 28 | Points in paint | 36 |
| 11 | Fast-break points | 22 |
Players
| FSU | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert McCray V G | 34 | 29 | 2 | 4 | 9-21 | 2-6 |
| Chauncey Wiggins F | 33 | 11 | 5 | 1 | 4-11 | 3-8 |
| Kobe MaGee G | 33 | 14 | 9 | 0 | 5-12 | 2-8 |
| Lajae Jones G | 25 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 1-10 | 0-4 |
| Alex Steen F | 17 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 2-3 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Martin Somerville G | 30 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1-7 | 1-5 |
| Thomas Bassong F | 12 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Cam Miles G | 11 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0-2 | 0-1 |
| Alier Maluk F | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-0 | 0-0 |
Did not play: Jalen Crawford, Shah Muhammad, Max Garcia-Plata, Xavier Osceola, AJ Swinton
| FLA | MIN | PTS | REB | AST | FG | 3P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thomas Haugh F | 38 | 20 | 13 | 3 | 7-15 | 2-6 |
| Xaivian Lee G | 36 | 9 | 7 | 6 | 2-13 | 1-10 |
| Boogie Fland G | 35 | 18 | 5 | 1 | 5-11 | 2-7 |
| Alex Condon F | 32 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3-5 | 0-2 |
| Rueben Chinyelu C | 24 | 10 | 16 | 1 | 5-12 | 0-0 |
| Bench | ||||||
| Urban Klavzar G | 18 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 2-5 | 1-4 |
| Micah Handlogten C | 10 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Isaiah Brown G | 6 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| CJ Ingram G | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0-1 | 0-1 |
Did not play: Alex Lloyd, Olivier Rioux, Viktor Mikic, Alex Kovatchev, AJ Brown, Cooper Josefsberg
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Market vs model
The model’s numbers beside the market’s
MarketModelModel edgeResult
Spread
MarketFLA -17.5
ModelFLA -19.7
Model edgeFLA +2.2
L FSU covered
Total
Market180.5
Model167.7
Model edgeUnder 12.8
W Under
Projected score
FSU 74 · FLA 93.7
FSU 76 · FLA 78
Win probability
FLA 96%
1st half
Spread
FLA -11.8
FSU -3.0
Total
78.5
77 points
Projected score
FSU 33.3 · FLA 45.1
FSU 40 · FLA 37
Market
Open → close
Spread
OpenFLA -17.5
no move
CloseFLA -17.5
No change since the open
Total
Open170.5
▲ 10
Close180.5
Up 10 since the open
Moneyline
FSU +1300 · FLA -4000
Line movement
Opening and closing line · tap a dot
Opened FLA -17.5 · unchangedmodel FLA -19.5
model FLA -19.5
Opened 170.5 · closed 180.5 · moved 10 upmodel 167.5
model 167.5
Openline modelTip-off
Pre-game lines only (ESPN, DraftKings first). After tip-off the line shown is the closing line.
Last 10 games
2025-26, before tip-off
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| FSUlast 2 | 2-0 100% | 2-0 100% | 1-1 50% |
| FLAlast 2 | 1-1 50% | 0-2 0% | 1-1 50% |
Recent meetings
Since 2021-22
FSU 0–4 FLAFLA leads · 4 games since 2021-22 · FLA has won the last 4 meetings · FSU 0-4 ATS
| Date | Result | Line | Covered |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 15, 2024-25 | FLA 87 @ FSU 74 | FSU +5.5 | FLA W |
| Nov 17, 2023-24 | FSU 68 @ FLA 89 | FLA -8.5 | FLA W |
| Nov 18, 2022-23 | FLA 76 @ FSU 67 | FSU +7.5 | FLA W |
| Nov 14, 2021-22 | FSU 55 @ FLA 71 | FLA +1.5 | FLA W |
ATS History · 2025-26
WwinLloss·Wats winLats lossPpush·Owent over the totalUwent under the total
Florida St
2 games played
Straight up
2-0
100% wins
Against the spread
2-0
100% covers · avg +8.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg +13 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
4
vs
ALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+4.5
7
vs
ALST
ALSTW 101-64
+12.5
covered 2didn’t cover 0avg +8.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
4
vsALCN
ALCNW 108-76
+27.5
7
vsALST
ALSTW 101-64
−1.5
over 1under 1avg +13 ptslonger = bigger margin
Florida
2 games played
Straight up
1-1
50% wins
Against the spread
0-2
0% covers · avg −6.5 pts vs the line
Over / Under
1-1
50% overs · avg +7 pts vs the total
Game by game: lines, results and totals
Lines, results and totalsCover margin by game · points beyond the lineTotal margin by game · points over or under the total
Day
Opp
Result
MissedCovered
Margin
3
vs
ARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
−9.5
6
vs
UNF
UNFW 104-64
−3.5
covered 0didn’t cover 2avg −6.5 ptslonger = bigger margin
Day
Opp
Result
UnderOver
Margin
3
vsARIZ
ARIZL 87-93
+15.5
6
vsUNF
UNFW 104-64
−1.5
over 1under 1avg +7 ptslonger = bigger margin
Line = the team’s closing spread (negative = favored). ATS number = points beyond the line; total number = combined points.
Florida St
2-0 overall · 0-0 in conference · Atlantic Coast Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs Alabama St101–64
- Wvs Alcorn St108–76
4 days since their last game.
Florida
1-1 overall · 0-0 in conference · Southeastern Conference
Last five, 2025-26
- Wvs North Florida104–64
- Lvs Arizona87–93
5 days since their last game.